[iINFORMATION from the YEWTREE RACING WEBSITE[/i
Don't Push It
2010 Winner! Stayed on really powerfully after the elbow last year and nothing questionable about the win, but he has never been the most consistent or reliable and hasn't exactly shown much sparkle so far this season: albeit he has been campaigned exclusively over hurdles. 9lb higher mark isn't going to make life any easier and wouldn't trust him 100% to come back to form back over these fences. McCoy's choice of four McManus runners.
5/10
Tidal Bay
One of the classier runners in the race! Awkward head carriage often leaves some with the impression he is not always up for it, but one thing he will do is finish well, that is if he takes to these fences. Hasn't always looked the most natural over the larger obstacles so the worry is this might not be his cup of tea, and if it isn't you'll know your fate early on. He has been in really good form this season, so there is hope for him.
4/10
What A Friend
Falls into the same bracket as Tidal Bay - he will either love this or he'll want to go home as quickly as he can. Officially 12lb well in after a career best effort when 4th in the Gold Cup last month, finishing strongly up the hill in first time blinkers and nearly catching Kauto Star for third. Has the pace to keep in touch with the leaders and will be one of the last off the bridle - providing he finds a rhythm and the head gear doesn't have a negative effect this time.
7/10
Vic Venturi
Won the 2009 Becher Chase and was still in touch when hampered & unseated rider at the 20th in last years renewal, suspicion that may have been his chance gone, however, he has retained his form this year and again, has been trained with this in mind. Wouldn't be a huge surprise to see him go well, but I can't have him winning it.
5/10
Majestic Concorde
Only got the go ahead on Wednesday and how like his trainer to pop up and win another big NH race. Not much experience over the larger obstacles but no fluke about his win in the Paddy Power at Leopardstown over Christmas: proving he stayed 3m, but this is a different stamina test altogether.
3/10
Or Noir De Somoza
French import who is making his British debut! A Grade 2 winner over fences and has an excellent win to run ratio, but without knowing anything about him or seeing him run it is hard to fancy him in a race of this nature.
2/10
Dooneys Gate
Did start life over fences by winning a 3m chase, but better known for his exploits over shorter trips since. Showed a liking for this course when 4th in the Topham last year and I would expect a bit more improvement from him now upped in trip. For what he has achieved, he has more than enough weight to carry.
4/10
Big Fella Thanks
Is a proper National horse having run two crackers in this race and is another that has been trained with this in mind ever since last year. Has been built up slowly this year as is his trainers want and you can be sure he'll be spot on for this. If he runs like he did last term he'll be bang there, but had to see why he should fare any better now off a 5lb higher mark.
6/10
The Tother One
Carries the hopes of the Child family as he is looked after by my brother. Only has a Beginners' Chase to his name but has run a number of good races over fences including when staying on for 4th in this years Hennessy. But, he can run the odd stinker as showed at Cheltenham at the end of January. Will gallop all day long but jumping can be a real issue with him.
4/10
Ballabriggs
Rapid improver last season culminating when just hanging on in the Kim Muir at the Cheltenham Festival. Has been earmarked for this ever since and ran a solid trial up at Kelso having won two novice hurdles beforehand. Trained by those who know what it takes to win a Grand National and it is hard to rule him out. Stays well and ground isn't an issue with him so hard to rule out a massive run.
7/10
The Midnight Club
Not seen much racing for a 10yo but is coming good at the right time. Progressed from race to race last year, ending up with two very solid placings at Cheltenham and Punchestown. Done precious little wrong this year: followed up his second in the Thyestes when taking the Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse and is bred to stay forever. Bound to be popular for his inform yard, but jumping needs to stand up to the unforgiving National fences.
7/10
Niche Market
Winless since his Irish National success two years ago and wasn't right on the day when pulled up in this last year. Warmed up for this over an inadequate trip last time and not without hope judged on the pick of his form, although he doesn't look good enough to provide his yard with their first National success.
5/10
Silver By Nature
Another of the "well in" brigade after his emphatic success at Haydock last time: winning back to back Blue Square Gold Cup's. If the handicapper could have another go he would have this likable grey carrying 11lb more, meaning that if he is going to do it now is the time. Would prefer the ground on the easy side, but apart from that he looks to hold outstanding claims for his Scottish based yard, as long as he doesn't get too detached early on.
7/10
Backstage
Hampered and unseated rider at the same fence as Vic Venturi last year when still in touch. Mopped up a couple of points recently but he needs to take a big step forward if his rules form is anything to go by. Paul Carberry has won this before and is bullish and so too did his yard back in 2007, but I can't get excited by this ones chance.
3/10
Chief Dan George
His biggest success came here over hurdles a few years ago, but I can't see him topping it. Comes here off the back of an early fall in the race he won at the Cheltenham Festival last season, that was the first time he has fallen over fences and confidence must now be a bit of a worry.
3/10
Calgary Bay
Although winless, he has had an excellent season so far and comes into this in really good heart. Two solid runs at Cheltenham put him right in the mixer here and he is a very capable jumper when on song. Yard haven't had the greatest success in this race, but he looks just the type to change all that and has enough stamina on paper to suggest he could put up a very bold show.
8/10
Killyglen
Won at this meeting two years ago as a novice for Howard Johnson, but has struggled since. Showed enough at Doncaster latest to suggest he had another race in him but I can't see it being this.
2/10
Oscar Time
Impressive winner of the Paddy Power last season and followed that up with an honourable second to Bluesea Cracker in the Irish National, and he reamins in good form: warmed up over hurdles for the Bobbyjo Chase last month and nothing wrong with his third to The Midnight Club. Should have improved a bit for the run since and he could just round off a fantastic year for the Waley-Cohen's.
8/10
Quinz
Not the most experienced and is technically still a novice, but he fully deserves to take his chance in a race like this off the back of his victory in the Racing Post Chase at Kempton last month. Gone up 9lb for that and that gives him a leading chance in this. I prefer to have something a bit more streetwise on my side, but there is no getting away from the fact he is improving rapidly.
7/10
Becauseicouldntsee
Finished runner up in the 4m at the Festival last season and filled the same spot over Christmas in the Paddy Power behind Majestic Concorde, a performance that goes down as a career best to date. Still lightly raced and clearly a progressive type who has plenty of stamina to call upon and he has already showed that that is his strongest weapon. Top man aboard and I can see him proving best of the Irish brigade.
8/10
Comply Or Die
Twelve years of age now and best days seemingly behind him. Well handicapped when taking this in 2008 and creditable second behind Mon Mome the following season, but found it tough going in this last term and no worthwhile form since. 5lb wrong at the weights, but a safe bet to finish.
3/10
Quolibet
Runner up to Or Noir De Somoza at Auteuil in November but pulled up on British debut at Cheltenham in the Cross Country and impossible to fancy.
1/10
Grand Slam Hero
Had a very successful time of it last Summer: winning four races in total and improving no less than 37lbs. Only had one start since September and that was when he pulled up at Ffos Las in February. On the face of it, he looks one of the less likely winners.
1/10
State Of Play
Proper Aintree National horse: finishing placed in the last two runnings of the race. Hasn't been seen since his 3rd behind Don't Push It in this last season: connections deciding to keep him fresh and train him specifically for this. Freshness is the key to him and he is a classy sort on his day as his 2006 Hennessy win showed. Due to carry 5lb less than last year and he does look nicely handicapped on is old form. The forgotten horse of the race, but a serious contender.
=Red9/10
King Fontaine
Has proved a better chaser than he was a hurdler, but then that should have been expected. Won four races on the trot in 2010 but sequence was ended in the Blue Square Gold Cup at Haydock (race won by Silver By Nature), better effort at Cheltenham last month and stamina doesn't look an issue, probably not good enough all the same.
4/10
In Compliance
Always been a favourite and good to see him win at Thurles in February under an enterprising ride. Comes here off the back of an error at Cork last month, but did take to these fences well in last years Topham and connections will be pinning their hopes on him taking to them again. Trip will stretch him though.
3/10
Hello Bud
Former Scottish National hero who has a cracking record over these fences, as shown when winning the Becher Chase in November and when 5th in this last season. It will be a tall order to match last years effort and no horse over 12 has won this in 78 years - should get round though.
4/10
West End Rocker
Yard been out of luck in this race down the years and hard to see that changing this time, although he isn't without hope. Looked as good as ever earlier in the season: won at Newbury in a race that worked out really well and then in the Classic Chase up at Warwick. Poor effort at Haydock next time and has something to prove after that. Ground will suit him.
5/10
Santa's Son
Made a winning debut for new yard at Musselburgh two months ago, but stamina is going to be a real issue and he isn't good enough anyway, easily overlooked.
1/10
Bluesea Cracker
Irish National winners have a good record in this race and this mare defeated Oscar Time in the 2010 renewal, making her a leading fancy for this. Recently been purchased by JP McManus, however has ground to make up on several rivals after her fifth in the Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse in February. I can see why some like her chances, but she isn't for me.
4/10
That's Rhythm
Yard trained Kingsmark to be 4th in this a number of years ago but this 11yo not in the same league as him. Been off all winter owing to his need of good ground and although holds bits and pieces of form, nothing to suggest he can take this.
2/10
Surface To Air
Not the easiest to train, yet had a fruitful time of it in the Spring/Summer of 2008, culminating in him taking the Summers National at Uttoxeter, but only seen the once since: last over hurdles at Market Rasen last month.
2/10
Piraya
Got round last year but in his own time, he simply doesn't stay this far and can't possibly win.
1/10
Can't Buy Time
Useful stayer on his day who doesn't show up that often anymore. Fallen in the last two runnings of this and although I don't think he is that bad of a jumper, it is hard to be confident about him this time. Connections will no doubt be pleased just to see him get round safely.
2/10
Character Building
Finished 7th last year and certainly comes into this years renewal in much better form, but even that isn't enough for me to fancy him now. Missed out in 2009 due to injury and that was proably his chance gone. Should get round again with some luck but isn't on my shortlist.
3/10
Ornais
Very good novice in 2008 and always stayed very well. Off for two years prior to his return in February and although he seems in good health, the form of his two hunter chases isn't good enough now back in with the professionals.
2/10
Arbor Supreme
Travelling and jumping well until unseating rider at the Chair in last years renewal, probably too soon to say he was going like a winner but it was certainly encouraging, as too was his prep for this in the Bobbyjo Chase behind stablemate The Midnight Club in February. Holds a serious chance after that and all he does is stay, so stamina won't be a problem.
6/10
Royal Rosa
Didn't show up for whatever reason last year and got no further than the 14th, however he has been placed in the last two runnings of the Becher Chase and they give him some sort of chance. Pulled up when last seen in the Welsh National but better judged on previous efforts round here - not well in according to the ratings.
3/10
Skippers Brig
There is always one dark horse who sneaks in at the foot of the weights and this year it is this lad. Needed the run after a year off in the Paddy Power behind Majestic Concorde at Christmas and has since won twice: including when beating Ballabriggs at Kelso and is now on better terms with that rival. Rain would help his chance, but he stays well and is off an attractive weight, big chance.
8/10
Golden Kite
Been a good servant to connections down the years but needs to up his game significantly if he is to play a hand in this. Ground should be perfect, but he isn't on my radar.
2/10
VERDICT
What A Friend holds outstanding claims providing he takes to this unique test,
Ballabriggs and
Oscar Time look primed to run a big race, but it is
STATE OF PLAY who ticks the most boxes and he can reward connections patience and make it a "third time lucky" success for the Welsh.
Silver By nature would prefer it to be heavy, while
Becauseicouldntsee, Calgary Bay and bottom weight
Skippers Brig look best of the rest in an open renewal.
PREDICTION
1st =RedSTATE OF PLAY
2nd =BlueBecauseicouldntsee
3rd =BlueSkippers Brig
4th =BlueOscar Time
5th =BlueCalgary Bay
I'd love to be proved wrong though.
