I expect you to be chanting it at the Oldham game if you are there!

Update Monday 30th July:

We all knew the importance of yesterday’s home game against Oldham but quite how significant that win was can really be seen when looking at the projected outcomes over the remaining seven games. My ‘best guesses’ as to who will win in the remaining fixtures shown below are listed in red. After beating Oldham, we now have a very realistic chance of finishing third.

=#0000FFTeam & Pts........Diff & Rank......Round 20..............Round 21..........Round 22...............Round 23.................Round 24................Round 25.............Round 26.............Final Points & Rank
Bradford 34...........+620 (1).......=#FF0000Whitehaven (H)......=#FF0000N Wales (H).......=#FF0000Workington (H).........=#FF0000Keighley (H)...........=#FF0000W Wales (A).........=#FF0000Oldham (A)..........=#FF0000Hemel (H)..............48 (1)
York 34.................+544 (2).......=#FF0000N Wales (H)...........=#FF0000W Wales (A).....=#FF0000Hunslet (H)..............=#FF0000Workington (A).......=#FF0000Oldham (H)............=#FF0000Hemel (A)...........=#FF0000Whitehaven (H).......48 (2)
Workington 26 ......+276 (5).......=#FF0000Keighley (H)..........=#FF0000Coventry (H).......Bradford (A).............York (H).................=#FF0000Newcastle (A)........=#FF0000London (H)..........Dons (A)................34 (4)
Whitehaven 26......+195 (7).......Bradford (A)..........Oldham (A)..........Dons (H)..................Hemel (A)..............Hunslet (H)...........Coventry (A)........York ((A)................34 (5)
Oldham 24.............+443 (3)......=#FF0000Hemel (A).............=#FF0000Whitehaven (H)....=#FF0000Newcastle (A).........=#FF0000Coventry (H)...........York (A).................Bradford (H).......=#FF0000.London (A).............34 (6)
Dons 24.................+281 (4)......=#FF0000Coventry (A)...........=#FF0000London (H).........Whitehaven (A)........=#FF0000Newcastle (H).......=#FF0000.Keighley (A)...........=#FF0000N Wales (A).......=#FF0000Workington (H).......36 (3)
Hunslet 24..............+99 (icon_cool.gif.......=#FF0000W Wales (A)..........=#FF0000Hemel (H)..........York (A)..................=#FF0000London (H).............Whitehaven (A).......=#FF0000Newcastle (H).....=#FF0000Coventry (A)..........34 (7)
Keighley 20...........+196 (6)......Workington (A).......=#FF0000Newcastle (H).....=#FF0000London (A)..............Bradford (A)............Dons (H)................=#FF0000W Wales (A).......=#FF0000N Wales (H)..........28 (icon_cool.gif

It’s going to remain incredibly close. Everything will almost certainly go down to the last matches of the season when we’re at home to Workington. Providing we only lose one of our other remaining games (possibly at Whitehaven) a win against Workington could mean we’d finish third, a loss to Workington would possibly mean we’d be relying on points difference to keep us in the top five. In fact, this game could be the decider in who finishes third and fourth, and consequently who has home advantage in the play-offs although Oldham's superior points difference may mean the loser will finish 5th, with a visit to either Bradford or York.

Of course, these projections rely on our rivals dropping points along the way. We very much need Bradford and York to keep winning to deprive our rivals of points. Thirty six points seems to be the ‘magic number’ for third place.

What is stopping teams reaching 36 points?

Oldham would have to beat Bradford (H) or York (A) to reach 36 points.
Whitehaven would need to beat either Bradford (A), York (A), or Oldham (A) to reach 36 points. From our point of view, an Oldham win in Round 21 seems preferable.
Workington would have to beat Bradford (A), York (H), or the Dons (A) to make 36 points.
Hunslet would need to beat either York (A) or Whitehaven (A) to make 36 points.
Keighley would need to win all their remaining games to get 36 points – including winning at Bradford and Workington.

Key games to help the Dons:

Round 20: We need Keighley to beat Workington and Bradford to beat Whitehaven. A defeat for Workington would mess them up quite a lot. Come on Keighley!
Round 21: Oldham to beat Whitehaven is a slightly better result for us.
Round 22: Bradford must beat Workington at home and York must beat Hunslet at home. A Dons win at Whitehaven would be huge!
Round 23: York need to win at Workington.
Round 24: York must beat Oldham at home. A Whitehaven win against Hunslet looks best as this will help stop Hunslet from getting 36 points.
Round 25: Bradford need to win at Oldham. We could do with Newcastle winning at Hunslet.
Round 26: York must beat Whitehaven at home or else Whitehaven could get 36 points. Our game against Workington is massive!

Apologies for the table above not being properly aligned. I prepared it as a Word document originally but you can't copy tables into the forum. We'll have another look at how things stand after next weekend's games.

I've always had a soft spot for Donny, so I often pop on here from the Bulls board just to catch up on what you're doing. Can I just say that as a total nerd I love this thread.

Thanks for visiting us Pumpetypump. I'm a total nerd too which is probably why I've spent all morning sorting out my last post. It's good fun speculating. It's turned out to be a fascinating season between some very evenly matched sides, with York and your boys being some way ahead of the rest. Good luck for the rest of the season. We need you to beat Whitehaven, Workington and Oldham and put a hole in their points difference please!

is a different proposition to 2012

all we can do now is keep backing them and hope we go a good run, as SO also says we are. I think we can aswell, as apart from the first 4 matches of the season
we've been up and down form wise. NOW is the perfect time to hit some form.

COYDs

Bulls 46 Haven 0. West Wales 6 Hunslet 86 today's results, poor old West Wales only had one named sub.


No messing about at Coventry please Dons.

Update Monday 6th August:

=#FF4000Team & Pts........Diff & Rank.....Round 21..........Round 22...............Round 23.................Round 24................Round 25.............Round 26.............Final Points & Rank
Bradford 36...........+666 (1).......N Wales (H).......Workington (H).........Keighley (H)...........W Wales (A).........Oldham (A)..........Hemel (H)..............48 (1)
York 36.................+574 (2).......W Wales (A).....Hunslet (H)..............Workington (A).......Oldham (H)............Hemel (A)...........Whitehaven (H).......48 (2)
Workington 28 ......+298 (5).......Coventry (H).......=#0000FF[uBradford (A)[/u.............=#0000FF[uYork (H)[/u.................Newcastle (A)........London (H).........=#0000FF.[uDons (A)[/u................34 (4)
Oldham 26.............+475 (3)......Whitehaven (H)....Newcastle (A).........Coventry (H)...........[u=#0000FFYork (A)[/u.................=#0000FF[uBradford (H)[/u........London (A).............34 (6)
Dons 26.................+323 (4)......London (H).........=#0000FF[uWhitehaven (A)[/u........Newcastle (H)........Keighley (A)...........N Wales (A).......Workington (H).......36 (3)
Hunslet 26..............+179 (6).......Hemel (H).........=#0000FF.[uYork (A)[/u..................London (H).............=#0000FF[uWhitehaven (A)[/u.......Newcastle (H).....Coventry (A)..........34 (7)
Whitehaven 26......+149 (7).......=#0000FF[uOldham (A)[/u..........Dons (H)..................Hemel (A)..............Hunslet (H)...........Coventry (A)........=#0000BF[uYork ((A[/u)................34 (5)

I've changed the colour coding for today's update. The fixtures in Blue are the expected losers. For example, Workington are expected to lose at Bradford in Round 22, lose at home to York in Round 23, and lose away at the Dons in Round 26.

Nothing much changed after Round 20 with all results going as expected. Round 21 sees one vital game: Oldham v Whitehaven. As 36 points seems the critical number to reach third place, we don't want Whitehaven to win this game or else 36 points becomes more likely for them. Oldham winning isn't a problem as they would have to beat either Bradford or York to get to 36 points.

Points difference could still be critical. We're presently 4th best on points difference with Oldham the only side in a better place. It's hard to see Hunslet getting ahead of us on points difference by the end of the season although they could improve things at home to Hemel next weekend.

Round 22 sees three very important games. Bradford v Workington and York v Hunslet. Worky and Hunslet [uMUST[/u lose these games or else they will get within the 36 point range. I've got the Dons down to lose at Whitehaven. If we win it would be a huge bonus and see 38 points as a possibility for us. Get all your mates signed up for the bus and lets see if we can win this game!



If we do win at Whitehaven, we could be assured of a promotion play-off place regardless of what happens in the last match at home to Workington. That would take the pressure off somewhat. It's not the end of the world if we lose at Whitehaven, it just gives less scope for any slip ups in the rest of the run in. We'd still be on target for third spot. The points difference between us and Worky needs to be kept tabs on too. We need to keep ahead of them in that race.

Bradford and York must keep winning or else it'll change the picture completely but as they've got each other to worry about for the automatic promotion spot, they should both be fully motivated to win all of their remaining games by good margins as points difference could be critical to them too.

Yes ... York beating Bradford was a huge bonus and will keep both sides honest right until the last game.
The trouble is coming into that game York might need too many points to pip Bradford and rest a few players to the advantage of Whitehaven whom York play.

Oldham v Bradford and Workington v York are problematic too.

That's a fair point about York, but Bradford play Hemel in the last round so the points difference between York and Bradford might look quite close on paper before that game. I'm trying to find a good reason for York not to take their foot off the gas!

York ought to close the points difference next weekend as they play West Wales whilst Bradford play Crusaders.

But Bradford play them too in a few weeks ... both away.
So not much change over all.

Should keep it interesting over the next few weeks.

How does everyone feel about the current structure? It certainly keeps everything interesting right up until the end of the season but Bradford and York have clearly been the best sides in the league this season. Would it be unfair if they both didn't go up?

Yes ... but extremely funny!

Yes. Clearly, I'd prefer we went up but if it's those two it's arguably the right result.

They both deserve to get promoted on the strength of the seasons results, however sport as we know can be a fickle thing. Either of those two would be odds on to win their respective play off games. I would still love it if we can be in the final game with either of them.

I would have a sore throat!

[uMonday 13th August:[/u

The Oldham win over Whitehaven at the weekend left my predicted standings as they were from last weekend. It was better for Oldham to win that match as Whitehaven's chance of reaching 36 points now rests on them beating York (A) in the last match of the season. Oldham can only get 36 points if they beat either York (A) or Bradford (H).

Team & Pts........Diff & Rank......Round 22...............Round 23................Round 24..............Round 25............Round 26...........Final Points & Rank

Bradford 38...........+714 (1).......Workington (H).........Keighley (H)...........W Wales (A).........Oldham (A)..........Hemel (H)..............48 (1)
York 38.................+704 (2).......Hunslet (H)..............Workington (A).......Oldham (H)............Hemel (A)...........Whitehaven (H).......48 (2)
Workington 30 ......+322 (5)......=#0000FF[uBradford (A)[/u.............=#0000FF[uYork (H)[/u.................Newcastle (A).........London (H)..........=#0000FF[uDons (A)[/u................34 (4)
Oldham 28.............+495 (3).....Newcastle (A)..........Coventry (H)............=#0000FF[uYork (A)[/u.................=#0000FF[uBradford (H)[/u........London (A).............34 (6)
Dons 28.................+355 (4)......=#0000FF[uWhitehaven[/u (A)........Newcastle (H)........Keighley (A)............N Wales (A).......Workington (H).......36 (3)
Hunslet 28..............+227 (6).....=#0000FF[uYork[/u (A)...................London (H).............=#0000FF[uWhitehaven[/u (A).......Newcastle (H).....Coventry (A)..........34 (7)
Whitehaven 26......+129 (7)...... Dons (H)..................Hemel (A)..............Hunslet (H).............Coventry (A)........=#0000FF[uYork ((A)[/u...............34 (5)

[uThere are four critical games next weekend[/u:

[uBradford v Workington[/u: A Bradford win is essential.

[uYork v Hunsle[/ut: If Hunslet win they are very likely to get 36 points with 38 a possibility if they can win at Whitehaven.

[uWhitehaven v Dons[/u: I've got this down as a Whitehaven win but would love to be proven wrong! If we win we can get a maximum of 38 points. A loss means 36 points max which should be good enough to reach the play-offs and probably third place. A win at Whitehaven would give us a slight cushion against slipping up in the remaining four games, all of which I've got us down to win.

[uNewcastle v Oldham[/u: If Newcastle could beat Oldham (at Newcastle) it would do us a huge favour as Oldham are then likely to drop down to 32 points at the end of the season.

After this round of games I suspect Oldham will be third with Workington dropping down at least one place; that would be two places if the Dons win. A Dons win would then put us in 4th place.

The following week should see Worky drop more points against York, but they're at home in that match giving them a slightly better chance of turning York over. I don't see Hunslet losing at home to London or Whitehaven dropping points at Hemel but a Hunslet 'slip up' would be very welcome!

We're still on course to finish third but we don't want York or Bradford to slip up anywhere!

PS: I forgot to mention, but as before, the games in blue show where I expect the team in the left column to lose.

Don't tell the Dons that they can lose at Whitehaven and still finish 3rd as they will take the opportunity to do the former and not the latter.
lol

[uUpdate Monday 20th August[/u:

It was inevitable that something ‘less predictable’ would happen at some point. There were three results to stir things up this weekend. I was highly delighted to be wrong in my prediction that the Dons would lose at Whitehaven. I saw the game as a ‘free hit’ for us. Great if we won but not too damaging if we lost. The magical end of season 36 points can now become 38 should we win our four remaining games.

The downside to the weekend results was Workington beating Bradford as they’re now threatening our chances of finishing third.

The bonus was Oldham losing at Newcastle. Oldham’s chances are now looking pretty grim with 32 points being their realistic target. I think Oldham’s chances of finishing above us have now gone.

York beat Hunslet. That was an important result as it pegs Hunslet’s final points tally back.

There are now four games remaining. Following each row across, the games in blue are where I’ve predicted the team in the left column will lose.

=#FF0000Team & Pts........Diff & Rank......Round 23................Round 24..............Round 25............Round 26...........Final Points & Rank
York 40.................+746 (1).......Workington (A).......Oldham (H)............Hemel (A)...........Whitehaven (H).......48 (1)
Bradford 38...........+708 (2).......Keighley (H)...........W Wales (A)..........Oldham (A)..........Hemel (H)..............46 (2)
Workington 32 ......+328 (5)......=#0000FF[uYork (H)[/u...................Newcastle (A).........London (H)..........=#0000FF[uDons (A)[/u..............36 (4)
Dons 30.................+364 (4)......Newcastle (H).........Keighley (A)............N Wales (A).......Workington (H)......38 (3)
Oldham 28.............+489 (3)......Coventry (H)............=#0000FF[uYork (A)[/u.................=#0000FF[uBradford (H)[/u........London (A)............32 (6)
Hunslet 28..............+185 (6).....London (H).............=#0000FF[uWhitehaven (A)[/u.......Newcastle (H)......Coventry (A)..........34 (5)
Whitehaven 26......+120 (7).......Hemel (A)..............Hunslet (H)...............Coventry (A)........=#0000FF[uYork ((A)[/u..............32 (7)

Some fans on the Whitehaven bus weren’t sure what the play-off format is. The top team is promoted automatically. Teams 2 to 5 are in the play-offs. Team Two is at home to Team Five, Team Three is at home to Team Four. Finishing second or third ensures a home game in the play-off semi-finals. As it stands at the moment, York would go up automatically. Bradford would be at home to Oldham, Workington would be at home to the Dons.

What’s likely to happen given the remaining fixtures? If we win all four remaining games, we’ll have 38 points. The permutations amongst the rest are still quite complicated because should a team win when they’re not ‘expected to win’, it can make a big difference to the final standings.

From the bottom up, Whitehaven seem to be up against it. They can now only get 34 points but to do so would mean winning away at York. That seems unlikely.

Oldham will get 32 points plus anything they can get from York (A) and Bradford (H). They’re likely to finish on 32; 34 points would be a surprise; and 36 points a major surprise. It looks like Oldham’s chance of finishing ahead of the Dons was blown at Newcastle yesterday.

I have Hunslet down for 34 points but they could get to 36 if they win at Whitehaven. Even if they get 36 points, their significantly inferior points difference means we should finish above them. We get 36 points even if we lose at home Workington. A win for Whitehaven in the Hunslet match is best for the Dons.

With these points in mind, I cannot see Oldham, Hunslet, or Whitehaven finishing above the Dons. They should occupy the 5th, 6th, and 7th spots. One of the three will get in the play-offs but will face the tough task of an away trip to either Bradford or York.

That leaves the Dons and Workington to fight it out for third and fourth place. In effect, whoever finishes above the other would have home advantage in the play-off semi-final. It’s very much likely that it will come down to the last match of the season at the Keepmoat.

Prior to the last match, if we win our next three games, we’ll have 36 points. If Workington lose against York but win their other two games, they’ll have 36 points. The Keepmoat battle will be the decider. Should Workington beat York, they’ll have 38 points, we’ll have 36 points. If we beat them, points difference could be the decider. At the moment our points difference is +364, Workington’s points difference is 328. We’re ahead of them by a handy 36 points.

Workington’s next to last match is away at London. That seems their best chance to chalk up a few points. It’s not just vital that we win our remaining games; it’s extremely important that we improve our points difference too. It would be helpful if we only had to win the last game, rather than have to win by a 'certain margin' to overtake Workington. The immediate best remedy for this stress would be for York to beat Workington on our behalf in the next round of games. Either way, unless Workington slip up against Newcastle, we’re still going to have to beat them at the Keepmoat to finish third.

Of course, we need to avoid defeat at home to Newcastle too, then win at Keighley and N Wales.

My biggest fear from the Whitehaven trip was that a defeat could knock our confidence and the forthcoming games would then be tougher. The morale boosting win should set us in good stead for the Newcastle game in a fortnight but it’s not a win we should take for granted. Oldham came unstuck against them yesterday.

It’s likely that ‘something unexpected’ will happen over the remaining games but if we win our last four matches we’re guaranteed a play-off place. Our fate is in our own hands. It’d be much better to have a play-off semi-final at the Keepmoat though, rather than another daunting trip to Cumbria.

If things work out to my plan above, York would be promoted automatically. The semi's would be Bradford v Hunslet and Dons v Workington.

If York lose to Workington, top spot is likely to be decided on points difference. York are currently 38 points ahead of Bradford but Bradford have to play West Wales yet!

There are no games next weekend as it's the Challenge Cup final.

With a favourable wind in a fortnight, the Dons could be third and Workington fourth. Hopefully, that's how it'll stay through to the end of the season!

You might like to read that again Mike and edit it ....

We have shown in recent weeks that we are not a high scoring side ... just reasonably efficient with a sound defence (touch wood).
But Worky are pretty similar.

I feel we will have to 'grind out' a win at Keighley and Crusaders and just get by Worky somehow.

We really need to rip into Newcastle and try to get 30+ more on our points difference just in case.

It's definitely a one game at a time situation for the Dons.
Plan A post some points earlier and if push comes to shove just win any old how with sound defence.

Worky will come all Moi Moid up and try and steamroller us and Miloudi, if we have him, will do them on the fringes.

Ooops, I got Whitehaven and Workington mixed up in one of the paragraphs. I've edited it now. I have to go for a lie down after doing this each week, you know. It's like proofreading generally, you can check something ten times over but still miss something obvious. You start to read stuff correctly, ignoring your own mistakes. It's weird!

Give me a shout if you spot any other howlers. Thanks.

Ist paragraph ... our remaining 4 games are not all home games ... but I nitpick.
We knew what you meant and to be fair it took a lot of writing and well worth it!

Well my Donny friends it now looks quite possible you'll be playing us in the playoffs. So I'll continue to wish you the very best of luck as always in the coming weeks, but for obvious reasons not necessarily wishing you success in the playoffs...