12th July: Keiran Cross thinks we'll make the top five:

[urlhttps://www.doncasterfreepress.co.uk/sport/rugby-league/doncaster-rlfc-i-definitely-think-we-ll-make-the-top-five-kieran-cross-1-9247785[/url

All remaining 10 games are winnable.
If we were any good we would win the lot barring injury additions.

But we usually lose at Hunslet and Whitehaven... so some work to do.

All to no avail no doubt ... but I would be saying to my players 'look York are a damn good side who deserve to get promoted, so let's nick it off 'em and really p/ss them of!!!'

Sunday 15th July:

This weekend's results:

The Dons beat W Wales. After I wrote Keighley’s chances off last week they won at home to Oldham 15-8. That is a good result for the Dons. Hunslet lost 36-16 at home to Bradford as expected. Workington lost 22-24 at home to Whitehaven. This is also potentially a good result for us as the third placed side is only two points ahead of us. York scraped home 22-20 at London Skolars. Newcastle’s chances have been seriously hampered by their 20-24 home defeat to N Wales.

With nine games left to go, the top five race looks as though it’s going to be tense right up to the last round of games.

League Table:

1. Bradford 17 16 0 1 765:189 32
2. York City 17 15 0 2 708:228 30
3. Oldham 17 11 0 6 606:203 22
4. Workington 17 11 0 6 547:325 22
5. Whitehaven 17 11 0 6 514:339 22
6. Hunslet 17 11 0 6 479:372 22
7. Doncaster 17 10 0 7 625:364 20
8. Keighley 17 10 0 7 615:401 20
9. Newcastle 17 8 0 9 490:362 16
10. Crusaders 17 6 1 10 375:424 13
11. London Skolars 17 4 1 12 444:573 9
12. Coventry 16 3 0 13 206:738 6
13. Hemel 17 1 0 16 204:824 2
14. West Wales 16 0 0 16 106:1342 0

Next week’s fixtures:

Coventry v Keighley (I would expect a Keighley win), W Wales v Worky (Should be plain sailing for Worky), Bradford v York (York could come back to the pack a little bit if they lose), Newcastle v Hemel (Newcastle should get back to winning ways), Whitehaven v London (Should be a home win), Oldham v N Wales (Oldham might not have it all their own way. An away win would suit us), Hunslet v Dons (the first of two vital games for the Dons).

If we lose we’ll probably be four points adrift of the top five with eight games left.

The fixtures for the following weekend:

London v Bradford, Hemel v W Wales, York v Coventry, Dons v Oldham, Keighley v Hunslet, Whitehaven v Newcastle, N Wales v Worky.

I’m away on holiday for week from Monday 16th July so I’ll miss the Hunslet game. I really hope we can get our own back on them!

Keighley have lost today at Coventry 30 - 20, well done to the Bears.

Workiington's result against West Wales is an interesting one too!

York rumoured to be signing ex NRL player Joel Edwards to add to the 2 players they have signed from Leeds. Looks like their further strengthening before the play offs.

I think we need to get a couple of forwards in. It’s ok Carl saying we have 10 Hull lads we can pick from on duel reg but the problem is most of them are playing for Hull at the minute.

We need forwards ... and the couple they lent got injured.
If we don't go up that is why ... lack of beef up front.

Monday 23rd July:

I'm now back from my holiday. I was very pleasantly surprised to see the Dons win at Hunslet last Sunday.

The current league table standings are as follows with 8 games left:

1. Bradford 18 16 0 2 793:219 32
2. York City 18 16 0 2 738:256 32
3. Oldham 18 12 0 6 656:209 24
4. Workington 18 12 0 6 593:331 24
5. Whitehaven 18 12 0 6 542:357 24
6. Doncaster 18 11 0 7 655:378 22
7. Hunslet 18 11 0 7 493:402 22
8. Keighley 18 10 0 8 635:431 20
9. Newcastle 18 9 0 9 532:376 18
10. Crusaders 18 6 1 11 381:474 13
11. London Skolars 18 4 1 13 462:601 9
12. Coventry 17 4 0 13 236:758 8
13. Hemel 18 1 0 17 218:866 2
14. West Wales 17 0 0 17 112:1388 0

I've listed below the next four games for each of the promotion contenders with my best guesses as to who will win, totalling up the expected points, and shown the possible table after 22 games:

[uBradford[/u: London (A) WIN, Haven (H) WIN, N Wales (A) WIN, Worky (H) WIN; 8 Points
[uYork[/u: Coventry (H) WIN, N Wales (H) WIN, W Wales (A) WIN, Hunslet (H) WIN; 8 Points

It's hard to see either of these teams dropping points but Bradford have two trickier home games against the Cumbrain sides. York have a potentially tricky home game against Hunslet.

[uOldham[/u: Dons (A) Lose, Hemel (A) WIN, Haven (H) WIN, Newcastle (A) WIN; 6 Points

I'm siding with a Dons win next Sunday against Oldham. Oldham should be favourites to beat Whitehaven at home but may have to fight for a win at Newcastle. I see them getting 6 points out of their next 8.

[uWorky[/u: N Wales (A) WIN, Keighley (H) WIN, Coventry (H) WIN, Bradford (A) Lose; 6 points. Worky's only loss should be at Bradford. I expect Keighley to fade over the next few games.

[uWhitehaven[/u: Newcastle (H) WIN, Bradford (A) Lose, Oldham (A) Lose, Dons (H) WIN; 4 points. I fear that Whitehaven may beat the Dons but I can see Haven losing to Bradford and Oldham. They've got a long injury list at the moment and that could play a part too. Their injury situation could play a major part in the match against the Dons.

[uDons[/u: Oldham (H) WIN, Coventry (A) WIN, London (A) WIN, Haven (A) Lose; 6 points. We were poor when we lost at Oldham. I feel quietly confident about this weeken'd game. Realistically, we must get at least 6 points out of the next 8. If we lose on Sunday, it cranks the pressure up on needing to win at Whitehaven. Maybe we shouldn't take Coventry and London for granted (especially London) but they're games we simply can't afford to lose.

[uHunslet[/u: Keighley (A) WIN, W Wales (A) WIN, Hemel (H) WIN, York (A) Lose; 6 points. It would certainly be better for the Dons if Hunslet lost at Keighley but I think Mr Thornton's men will grab the points. With a loss at York, I can see them getting 6 points out of the next 8.

[uKeighley[/u: Hunslet (H) Lose, Worky (A) Lose, Newcastle (H) WIN, London (A) WIN; 4 points. I wrote Keighley off in my write up a couple of weeks ago before they went on to beat Oldham at home. A loss at Coventry last weekend perhaps suggests where they're really at after the losing several key players recently. They might not even beat Newcastle and London as I've assumed. I can't see then challenging now.

[uNewcastle[/u: Haven (A) Lose, London (H) WIN, Keighley (A) Lose, Oldham (H) Lose; 2 points. Newcastle are the team who can't really afford to drop any more points as they're behind the rest already. To stay in the race they would need to get at least 6 points from their next four games. I may have slightly under-estimated them but I can't see them being realistic top five candidates.

[uProjected table after 22 games[/u:

Bradford 40
York 40
Oldham 30
Worky 30
Whitehaven 28
Dons 28
Hunslet 28
Keighley 24
Newcastle 20

With the way the fixtures have fallen, it doesn't look as though all that much will change over the next four games although I expect to see Keighley and Newcastle drop down the pecking order. The best the Dons can get is 30 points if they beat Oldham and Whitehaven (as well as winning the two 'easier' games. The worst we should do after 22 games is 26 points.

I'll include the fixture details for the last four matches after the Oldham game has been played.

I believe that one of the teams in the race for places 3 to 5 will go on a roll and so there will be only 2 places up for grabs for the others.
But I also believe that the side going on the roll will be the Dons.
Thanks to Matty Beharrell.
And Jez Litten if we can keep him.

Got a funny feeling Litten will be recalled, unless RH can persuade Radford otherwise.

Glad to see Jez is going well for you

In Kes and Litten we have, IMO, the perfect combination of hookers. Kes is experienced, defensively very strong, puts defenses on the back foot when near their own line and knows the tricks of the trade. Litten is quick and tricky, gets defences worry from longer range and can get around the pitch quickly

Kes and Jez ... they go together like an arab and a fez.

Lovely

I expect you to be chanting it at the Oldham game if you are there!

Update Monday 30th July:

We all knew the importance of yesterday’s home game against Oldham but quite how significant that win was can really be seen when looking at the projected outcomes over the remaining seven games. My ‘best guesses’ as to who will win in the remaining fixtures shown below are listed in red. After beating Oldham, we now have a very realistic chance of finishing third.

=#0000FFTeam & Pts........Diff & Rank......Round 20..............Round 21..........Round 22...............Round 23.................Round 24................Round 25.............Round 26.............Final Points & Rank
Bradford 34...........+620 (1).......=#FF0000Whitehaven (H)......=#FF0000N Wales (H).......=#FF0000Workington (H).........=#FF0000Keighley (H)...........=#FF0000W Wales (A).........=#FF0000Oldham (A)..........=#FF0000Hemel (H)..............48 (1)
York 34.................+544 (2).......=#FF0000N Wales (H)...........=#FF0000W Wales (A).....=#FF0000Hunslet (H)..............=#FF0000Workington (A).......=#FF0000Oldham (H)............=#FF0000Hemel (A)...........=#FF0000Whitehaven (H).......48 (2)
Workington 26 ......+276 (5).......=#FF0000Keighley (H)..........=#FF0000Coventry (H).......Bradford (A).............York (H).................=#FF0000Newcastle (A)........=#FF0000London (H)..........Dons (A)................34 (4)
Whitehaven 26......+195 (7).......Bradford (A)..........Oldham (A)..........Dons (H)..................Hemel (A)..............Hunslet (H)...........Coventry (A)........York ((A)................34 (5)
Oldham 24.............+443 (3)......=#FF0000Hemel (A).............=#FF0000Whitehaven (H)....=#FF0000Newcastle (A).........=#FF0000Coventry (H)...........York (A).................Bradford (H).......=#FF0000.London (A).............34 (6)
Dons 24.................+281 (4)......=#FF0000Coventry (A)...........=#FF0000London (H).........Whitehaven (A)........=#FF0000Newcastle (H).......=#FF0000.Keighley (A)...........=#FF0000N Wales (A).......=#FF0000Workington (H).......36 (3)
Hunslet 24..............+99 (icon_cool.gif.......=#FF0000W Wales (A)..........=#FF0000Hemel (H)..........York (A)..................=#FF0000London (H).............Whitehaven (A).......=#FF0000Newcastle (H).....=#FF0000Coventry (A)..........34 (7)
Keighley 20...........+196 (6)......Workington (A).......=#FF0000Newcastle (H).....=#FF0000London (A)..............Bradford (A)............Dons (H)................=#FF0000W Wales (A).......=#FF0000N Wales (H)..........28 (icon_cool.gif

It’s going to remain incredibly close. Everything will almost certainly go down to the last matches of the season when we’re at home to Workington. Providing we only lose one of our other remaining games (possibly at Whitehaven) a win against Workington could mean we’d finish third, a loss to Workington would possibly mean we’d be relying on points difference to keep us in the top five. In fact, this game could be the decider in who finishes third and fourth, and consequently who has home advantage in the play-offs although Oldham's superior points difference may mean the loser will finish 5th, with a visit to either Bradford or York.

Of course, these projections rely on our rivals dropping points along the way. We very much need Bradford and York to keep winning to deprive our rivals of points. Thirty six points seems to be the ‘magic number’ for third place.

What is stopping teams reaching 36 points?

Oldham would have to beat Bradford (H) or York (A) to reach 36 points.
Whitehaven would need to beat either Bradford (A), York (A), or Oldham (A) to reach 36 points. From our point of view, an Oldham win in Round 21 seems preferable.
Workington would have to beat Bradford (A), York (H), or the Dons (A) to make 36 points.
Hunslet would need to beat either York (A) or Whitehaven (A) to make 36 points.
Keighley would need to win all their remaining games to get 36 points – including winning at Bradford and Workington.

Key games to help the Dons:

Round 20: We need Keighley to beat Workington and Bradford to beat Whitehaven. A defeat for Workington would mess them up quite a lot. Come on Keighley!
Round 21: Oldham to beat Whitehaven is a slightly better result for us.
Round 22: Bradford must beat Workington at home and York must beat Hunslet at home. A Dons win at Whitehaven would be huge!
Round 23: York need to win at Workington.
Round 24: York must beat Oldham at home. A Whitehaven win against Hunslet looks best as this will help stop Hunslet from getting 36 points.
Round 25: Bradford need to win at Oldham. We could do with Newcastle winning at Hunslet.
Round 26: York must beat Whitehaven at home or else Whitehaven could get 36 points. Our game against Workington is massive!

Apologies for the table above not being properly aligned. I prepared it as a Word document originally but you can't copy tables into the forum. We'll have another look at how things stand after next weekend's games.

I've always had a soft spot for Donny, so I often pop on here from the Bulls board just to catch up on what you're doing. Can I just say that as a total nerd I love this thread.

Thanks for visiting us Pumpetypump. I'm a total nerd too which is probably why I've spent all morning sorting out my last post. It's good fun speculating. It's turned out to be a fascinating season between some very evenly matched sides, with York and your boys being some way ahead of the rest. Good luck for the rest of the season. We need you to beat Whitehaven, Workington and Oldham and put a hole in their points difference please!

is a different proposition to 2012

all we can do now is keep backing them and hope we go a good run, as SO also says we are. I think we can aswell, as apart from the first 4 matches of the season
we've been up and down form wise. NOW is the perfect time to hit some form.

COYDs

Bulls 46 Haven 0. West Wales 6 Hunslet 86 today's results, poor old West Wales only had one named sub.


No messing about at Coventry please Dons.

Update Monday 6th August:

=#FF4000Team & Pts........Diff & Rank.....Round 21..........Round 22...............Round 23.................Round 24................Round 25.............Round 26.............Final Points & Rank
Bradford 36...........+666 (1).......N Wales (H).......Workington (H).........Keighley (H)...........W Wales (A).........Oldham (A)..........Hemel (H)..............48 (1)
York 36.................+574 (2).......W Wales (A).....Hunslet (H)..............Workington (A).......Oldham (H)............Hemel (A)...........Whitehaven (H).......48 (2)
Workington 28 ......+298 (5).......Coventry (H).......=#0000FF[uBradford (A)[/u.............=#0000FF[uYork (H)[/u.................Newcastle (A)........London (H).........=#0000FF.[uDons (A)[/u................34 (4)
Oldham 26.............+475 (3)......Whitehaven (H)....Newcastle (A).........Coventry (H)...........[u=#0000FFYork (A)[/u.................=#0000FF[uBradford (H)[/u........London (A).............34 (6)
Dons 26.................+323 (4)......London (H).........=#0000FF[uWhitehaven (A)[/u........Newcastle (H)........Keighley (A)...........N Wales (A).......Workington (H).......36 (3)
Hunslet 26..............+179 (6).......Hemel (H).........=#0000FF.[uYork (A)[/u..................London (H).............=#0000FF[uWhitehaven (A)[/u.......Newcastle (H).....Coventry (A)..........34 (7)
Whitehaven 26......+149 (7).......=#0000FF[uOldham (A)[/u..........Dons (H)..................Hemel (A)..............Hunslet (H)...........Coventry (A)........=#0000BF[uYork ((A[/u)................34 (5)

I've changed the colour coding for today's update. The fixtures in Blue are the expected losers. For example, Workington are expected to lose at Bradford in Round 22, lose at home to York in Round 23, and lose away at the Dons in Round 26.

Nothing much changed after Round 20 with all results going as expected. Round 21 sees one vital game: Oldham v Whitehaven. As 36 points seems the critical number to reach third place, we don't want Whitehaven to win this game or else 36 points becomes more likely for them. Oldham winning isn't a problem as they would have to beat either Bradford or York to get to 36 points.

Points difference could still be critical. We're presently 4th best on points difference with Oldham the only side in a better place. It's hard to see Hunslet getting ahead of us on points difference by the end of the season although they could improve things at home to Hemel next weekend.

Round 22 sees three very important games. Bradford v Workington and York v Hunslet. Worky and Hunslet [uMUST[/u lose these games or else they will get within the 36 point range. I've got the Dons down to lose at Whitehaven. If we win it would be a huge bonus and see 38 points as a possibility for us. Get all your mates signed up for the bus and lets see if we can win this game!



If we do win at Whitehaven, we could be assured of a promotion play-off place regardless of what happens in the last match at home to Workington. That would take the pressure off somewhat. It's not the end of the world if we lose at Whitehaven, it just gives less scope for any slip ups in the rest of the run in. We'd still be on target for third spot. The points difference between us and Worky needs to be kept tabs on too. We need to keep ahead of them in that race.

Bradford and York must keep winning or else it'll change the picture completely but as they've got each other to worry about for the automatic promotion spot, they should both be fully motivated to win all of their remaining games by good margins as points difference could be critical to them too.

Yes ... York beating Bradford was a huge bonus and will keep both sides honest right until the last game.
The trouble is coming into that game York might need too many points to pip Bradford and rest a few players to the advantage of Whitehaven whom York play.

Oldham v Bradford and Workington v York are problematic too.

That's a fair point about York, but Bradford play Hemel in the last round so the points difference between York and Bradford might look quite close on paper before that game. I'm trying to find a good reason for York not to take their foot off the gas!

York ought to close the points difference next weekend as they play West Wales whilst Bradford play Crusaders.

But Bradford play them too in a few weeks ... both away.
So not much change over all.