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| Quote ="Double Movement"Friday Result: Dewsbury 42, Rochdale 0.
I bet Dewsbury are pleased with a clean sheet.'"
That is a scoreline that reflects the difference between Dewsbury RLFC and Doncaster RFLC. One does a job the other does half a job. Its why I have no confidence of us achieving a result tomorrow.
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| In an earlier post, I analysed the points conceded by Oldham and the Dons.
Here's Dewsbury's record:
Home: 12, 10, 10, 6, 6 and 0
Away: 26, 18, 16, 6, 6, and 4
Conceded 20+ points: Dons 50%, Oldham 50%, Dewsbury 9%.
Conceded fewer than 10 points: Dons 10%, Oldham 10%, Dewsbury 50%.
Being able to score points is important but not conceding points is probably even more important. Our defence looks vulnerable against sides we should be able to shut out. Against better sides, you can't give them a head start or else there is likely to be no way back.
The evidence suggests tomorrow could be a high scoring game. We'll see!
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| What do you see the handicap being?
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| Quote ="Wanderer"What do you see the handicap being?'"
Phew! That's a tough one...
I reckon we might be getting between 4 and 8 points start? Over recent seasons, the bookies have tended to oppose the Dons more than the league tables might suggest - correctly so in most instances. You don't know how the Dewsbury v Rochdale handicap compared to ours, do you? I didn't look.
The Dons might be worth a punt if getting 10 or more start? How do you see it?
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| I didn’t look at the Dewsbury v Rochdale handicap unfortunately.
I expect the Dons to get 8 or 10 points start tomorrow but that wouldn't be enough to tempt me in.
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| Having done some digging, Rochdale had 28 start.
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| Quote ="Wanderer"I didn’t look at the Dewsbury v Rochdale handicap unfortunately.
I expect the Dons to get 8 or 10 points start tomorrow but that wouldn't be enough to tempt me in.'"
You ruthless Wanderer!
What about a Dons win outright at 6/4, would that tempt you? I doubt the bookies would be that generous.
More like 8/11 Oldham, 11/10 Dons at best.
Any thoughts of backing Oldham at 4/5, say?
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| I'd be amazed if Oldham at 4/5 was available. I'm thinking they'll be 2/5 or thereabouts.
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| Quote ="Wanderer"I'd be amazed if Oldham at 4/5 was available. I'm thinking they'll be 2/5 or thereabouts.'"
Crikey, do you think Oldham will be that short?
Looking at the percentages, I'd probably go Oldham 56%, Draw 4%, Dons 40%.
That converts to odds of 1.79, 25.00 and 2.50 which in fractions comes in at approximately:
Oldham 4/5, Draw 25/1, Dons 6/4.
You're thinking more on the lines of Oldham 71%, Draw 4%, Dons 25% are you?
Oldham 2/5, Draw 25/1, Dons 3/1.
I can't wait to see the odds tomorrow. I can see you lumping on Oldham!
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| Quote ="Double Movement"In an earlier post, I analysed the points conceded by Oldham and the Dons.
Here's Dewsbury's record:
Home: 12, 10, 10, 6, 6 and 0
Away: 26, 18, 16, 6, 6, and 4
Conceded 20+ points: Dons 50%, Oldham 50%, Dewsbury 9%.
Conceded fewer than 10 points: Dons 10%, Oldham 10%, Dewsbury 50%.
Being able to score points is important but not conceding points is probably even more important. Our defence looks vulnerable against sides we should be able to shut out. Against better sides, you can't give them a head start or else there is likely to be no way back.
The evidence suggests tomorrow could be a high scoring game. We'll see!'"
We did not concede too many points at Dewsbury by them attacking in the conventional sense, it wasn't until they took to the sky's that we lost the scoreline. A fact I have no doubt which will not be lost on Oldham.
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| Dewsbury's handicap went to 32pts late on but obviously still covered it, fully expect dons to receive 6 or 8 tomorrow. Anything under 10 and I'm going quite large on oldham as i thought they were decent at ours.
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| Skybets current odds to win the league:
Dewsbury 1/4,
Dons 4/1,
Oldham 8/1.
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Cheers, Jemmo. I'd just found that myself. Here's their radio listings for tomorrow:
Sunday
4am Get Ready For This
6am Vintage Melodies
Golden Oldies
10am Your Favourite Hymns
Christian Music
12pm Sunday Bandstand
Brass Bands with Chris Helme
1pm Going Classical Geoff Oliver presents an hour of Classical Music
Repeat from Thursday Lunchtime
2pm Dateline / Oldham Ruby League
Music Information and News / Coverage of Oldham Rugby League matches.
5pm Friday Filter
Repeat of Fridays show presented by Graydon Monk and Martin Byrom
I've been able listen to the programme they've presently got online without any issues.
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Cheers, Jemmo. I'd just found that myself. Here's their radio listings for tomorrow:
Sunday
4am Get Ready For This
6am Vintage Melodies
Golden Oldies
10am Your Favourite Hymns
Christian Music
12pm Sunday Bandstand
Brass Bands with Chris Helme
1pm Going Classical Geoff Oliver presents an hour of Classical Music
Repeat from Thursday Lunchtime
2pm Dateline / Oldham Ruby League
Music Information and News / Coverage of Oldham Rugby League matches.
5pm Friday Filter
Repeat of Fridays show presented by Graydon Monk and Martin Byrom
I've been able listen to the programme they've presently got online without any issues.
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| Sky bet have both sides 10/11 off scratch! Don't let your heart rule your head that's a great price on oldham
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| Didn't last long ... Oldham 8/11 already.
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| Bet365 ...
Oldham -2 10/11
Dons +2 10/11
Handicap Draw 16/1
A Dons win is 6/5
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| This will probably go to 4 or 6 before kick off so get on now
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| The bookies are giving us a better chance than I imagined.
I know there aren't many of us post on here these days but it's ironic how everyone's head seems to be ruling their hearts as we all make Oldham clear favourites.
The importance of today's game can't be overstated. It's massive in terms of our season.
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| Skybet now Dons +4 10/11 and 5/4 the win.
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| Quote ="Wanderer"Skybet now Dons +4 10/11 and 5/4 the win.'"
They're starting to come a little closer to our way of thinking.
Have you been able to get on Oldham at a decent price?
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| Kept it simple. 8/11 for the win with Bet365.
If I'm wrong, at least the Dons will have got a result.
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| I just hope we don't get beat without putting in a serious effort and we have one of those Dons eighty minute games that puts a smile on everyone's faces. Come on lads get the attitude today spot on.
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| Quote ="Wilf Grimshaw"I just hope we don't get beat without putting in a serious effort and we have one of those Dons eighty minute games that puts a smile on everyone's faces. Come on lads get the attitude today spot on.'"
The psychology behind today's game, both for the fans and players, is fascinating.
If we win, we'll probably be more confident we'll at least finish second. As a consequence, we won't fear Oldham too much if we play them at home in the play-offs.
If we lose, we might finish behind Oldham and have to visit their place again in the play-offs. This time confidence would be much lower. Should we lose by more than 12 today, confidence would be pretty low.
Of course, one game is only one game but in the context of this league, the matches against your main rivals count for much more. Top of the table rivals have very few games in which they might realistically drop points.
If we lose today, we can't win the league unless we beat Dewsbury and they also drop points against someone else.
If we lose today, to get back above Oldham, they'd probably have to lose at Dewsbury and we'd have to beat Dewsbury.
Hunslet and Workington might nick points off the top sides somewhere along the way but the above basically puts into context the importance of today.
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| The Dewsbury v Oldham fixture is next Friday so the table will look pretty interesting by the time that is over.
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