I kind of see your point here now - I'm guessing it's to do with weights subsequently allocated.
Do you reckon Hedgehunter fell on purpose in 2004?

He was weighed down by a hefty sum of CP money from 66's down to 25's which was IMO the main problem. He wouldn't have won if he'd stood up anyway as they made too much use of him that year, the following year however he could have gone round again



I might be to do with subsequent weight - it's just a stat that they have a poor record, tbh horses who've previously won and not won the National have a poor win record in general but Hedgehunter won the year after falling and there've been a few other good runs.

Equally there's a good few poor runs after placing, most notably Lord Atterbury who was came down at the first one year having finished third the year before.

Anyone any idea rough SP for Big Bucks tomorrow? Looking on SkyBet and no prices yet,just an option for SP

5/6 on PP at the moment

Any idea how much a £10 double win on that and Denman would fetch in?

Taking Big Bucks at 5/6 and Denman at 10/11 (current prices at PP)


£10 pays £35

Cheers mate. Put it on on SkyBet but had to take the SPs

£35 if you take the 10/11 Denman and that 5/6 about BB

They're top price about both of those and Big Bucks is an arb at the price so it won't be there much longer.

Sorry if this comes over as pedantic, but surely Big Bucks cannot be referred to as an arb at odds of 5/6. For an arb to occur the punter must have the ability to make a profit regardless of outcome by backing two or more possibilities;

e.g. In a tennis match with only two possible outcomes, one bookmaker has player A odds on (4/6) and player B odds against (11/10) whilst another bookmaker has player A odds against (5/4) and player B odds on (4/7). By backing each player at odds against the punter is guaranteed a profit albeit a small one.

Big stakes players search for opportunities like this but they are few and far between as bookmakers view each others prices and will rarely provide punters such opportunities for too long - but they do occur from time to time.

no horse will EVER beat my winning record in the 1990 GRAND NATIONAL

My Tips For Thursday ...

2:00 John Smith's Liverpool Hurdle
Big Buck's

2:35 Matalan Anniversary 4-Y-O Novices' Hurdle
Walkon

3:10 totesport Bowl Chase
Denman

3:45 John Smith's Fox Hunters' Chase
Take The Stand

4:20 John Smith's Red Rum Handicap Chase
Pasco

4:55 John Smith's Manifesto Novices' Chase
Planet Of Sound

5:30 Silver Cross Handicap Hurdle
Sunnyhill Boy

Today at Aintree ...

2.00 Big Bucks
2.35 Starluck
3.10 Star de Mohaison (e/w)
3.45 Sonevafushi (e/w)
4.20 Tramantano (e/w)
4.55 Chapoturgeon
5.30 Font (e/w)

There are more arbs on horse racing than any other sport. The price to lay on Betfair was 1.83 and it's 5/6 or 1.85 with the bookmakers, you could back him with Paddy Power and lay him on Betfair for guaranteed profit.

In this intance he'd be backing Big Bucks to win and Big Bucks to lose with no risk at all to himself.

Betfair is the best guide for horse prices - some firms will lay arbs, Paddy Power often take a view on a race and will stand it for X amount.

As long as the price is under to lay on Betfair then the arb players will come and back it with X firm and lay it with Betfair. As one odds compiler put it "I couldn't think of anything more tedious than arbing" - most arbers will do it in £5 to £40 stakes so you need a heck of a lot of arbs to make it pay.

Big Buck's is 4/5 at the moment and Denman 10/11, both at Ladbrokes.

2.00 Mighty Man
2.35 Hebridean
3.10 Albertas Run
3.45 Take The Stand
4.20 Moon Over Miami
4.55 Tartak
5.30 French Opera

which horse won the 1990 GRAND NATIONAL?

my bets today 2 lucky 15s

all 5 of rubys rides

ouzbeck in 4.55

le duc in 3.45

takaatuf in 3.55 leicester

Mr Frisk was the winner, it holds the record for the fastest time.

Just looking at the first race today i would expect Big Bucks to run away with it but @ 4/5 there isn't much value, Fair Along is getting 4lb from the fav and back on a flat track should go close, Mighty Man again getting 8lb from the fav wasn't disgraced at Cheltenham coming back form an injury and he also has E/W claims, you throw in Hills of Aran, Lough Derg and Duc Regineri who have all finished in the top 3 in the last races and you have a very competitive race for 2nd and 3rd.

2.00 Fair Along e/w
2.35 Hebridean win
3.10 Madison Du Berlais e/w
3.45 McEvoy/Theatre Night e/w
4.20 Valain/Vinmix De Bessy e/w
4.55 Tartak e/w
5.30 not sure yet..

For ref Bet365 seem to be doing enhanced odds on all races paying a 1/4 odds and going 4places in foxhunters..

Agus A Vic in the Foxhunters for the win and Theatre Knight each way in that.

Starluck had major breathing problems at Cheltenham LTO coming over the last and hopefully will bounce back on a more suitable track.

No great thoughts on the other races at the moment, Denman's very weak - people wanting to back Exotic Dancer against him.

Ive had a good word for Trust Fund in the Foxhunters mate and although Starluck should go close, Nicholls loves Herbidian, the horse used to belong to Aiden O'Brian and is known to have good speed, i think the speed over the flat track could help it into first.

Thanks - Trust Fund is an interesting one, Barber is one of the Nicholls satellite yards ie. TF will probably end up at Ditcheat next year.

E/W Lucky 15.

14:00 Big Bucks.
14:35 Hebridian.
15:10 Denman.
15:45 Trust Fund.

£100 on Walsh to be top jockey.

Will also have a flutter on a few more combo's which ill post a bit later.

Can't see the point of backing the first three of those each-way