so the first grand tour is upon us, but who will win? most of the favourites have had pretty low key build ups this year with only perhaps Nibali showing his hand. Evans and Basso have looked out of sorts or are aiming to peak for le tour instead. Hesjedal, wiggins and sanchez have opted for low profile build ups, training rather than racing in the most. Rodriguez may be worth a punt though he wont like the time trial in the middle. with no contador and froome in this could an outsider get in. the long time trial will surely be dominated by wiggins, the main question seems to be who can get the time back in the several big mountain stages

i think this is going to be a pretty open race, keeping out of trouble in week 1 will be a priority for the favourites, then the real racing starts. with no one in really great form, and several big names out i'm going for nibali to finally shake off wiggo in the big hills with hesjedal up there too, but keep an eye on taylor phinney, possibly the best of the outsiders

This has the chance of being a pretty boring Grand Tour tbh with the main contenders marking each other out of it.

Wiggins build up has surprised me this year after last year winning all but two of the stage races he entered. Either he is keeping his powder dry or......he is finding last year difficult to follow up.

Hesjedal has looked solid so far but he doesn't have the surprise package element this year - pretty sure that Garmin will throw the whole team behind him though and should finish top 5.

Nibali looks good so far and as long as the Astana team ride smartly then he has a solid chance of the win.

Basso is a spent force but will finish top 10.

Sanchez is top 5 material - won't challenge for the win

There are a few surprise packages this year in the mix. Can Betancour keep up his good form and get into a meaningful break to put some serious time into the main GC hopefuls?

Can Pozzovivo show the kind of form he had two years ago and be there or thereabouts (he can't TT at all though).

Basso out anyway - got a cyst on his 'arris.

Cav kicks ass once again - his team need some mechanics who know what they are doing. Every race they have a bike break at a critical time

I think Nibali will win the Giro this year

Great start for Cav yesterday though

Great start for Cav in spite of his team not having a clue. They came to the front far too early and he won in spite of his team.

Great TTT from Sky, Astana and Movistar. Appalling from anyone else who was fancied. Hesjadal has time he needs to make up.

Great stage yesterday - ignore what I said about the potential of this being a boring procession. I think yesterday was about Astana and Garmin telling Sky they weren't going to be allowed to boss the climbs this year.

I fancy Pozzovivo or Santambrogio for the win today.

Been an interesting last few days.

Omega Pharma Quick Step worked well to deliver Cav to the line yesterday. Good lead out and great work by Steegmans.

Questions marks over what shape Wiggins is in. Remember 2010/11 when he was always in the wrong place getting caught up behind crashes? Remember 2012 when he and his team were not getting caught up in crashes? Well, looks like we're seeing the earlier vintage again.

40 riders were not caught in the crash yesterday. What on earth is Bradley doing more than 40 riders back?

Maybe he is so certain of putting 3 or more minutes into his GC rivals in the TT but he would do well to remember the broken collarbone that arguably robbed him of winning the 2011 Tdf.

For me the jury is out on Wiggo until after the TT.

He punctured and was just getting back. Not sure there was a lot he or the team could have done about it.

Tough one today. Barely a flat section in sight.

That would certainly explain it - but he also lost time 2 days previous.

Today is described as medium mountains. Remind me never to go out on a ride with anyone who would describe today as 'medium mountains'.

He did, and when you add it all up it appears to make a pattern, but I'm not too sure there's one to see. It has been a far from comfortable first week though.

Wiggins has stacked it. He's in deep, deep trouble

It's been a far more enjoyable (and unpredictable) first week than I thought we were in store for.

I've had my suspicions about Wiggins form before the race even started. I suppose we'll know more soon enough.

Just tuned in - weather looks nice. Guess he went down due to the conditions.

Yep. Nibbles hit the tarmac too, but only after breaking away a bit, so managed to stay with the peloton.
If Sky did have a plan B, that's gone now with Henao and Urán waiting for Wiggins. Lost 90 seconds to the other main GC contenders.

Wiggins only hope is to put 4 minutes plus into his main GC rivals in the TT. He could do that with Nibbles but not Ryder.

My bet on Hesjadal is looking better today after that.

When will Sky learn that they need a 'plan B'?

It only looks like there is a plan B when plan A works. Wiggins wins Le Tour, but there's Froome next to him on the podium and they can say 'well if anything had happened to Brad, we'd have had someone able to take over'. They can keep telling themselves that, but it doesn't make it true. Urán's slipped 20 places today and is no longer in a position to take over as leader.

This is hilarious: https://twitter.com/ukcyclingexpert

This is hilarious: https://twitter.com/ukcyclingexpert

I can guarantee that if anything had happened to Brad they'd have sent Froome 'back' to look after him thereby taking care of Plans A & B in one fell swoop.

Some interesting chat coming out from David Walsh yesterday that Uran and Henao had been told to stay put and not to come back to pace Wiggo back to the group. Plans B & C finally coming out but not until both plans had been compromised pacing Wiggins back earlier in the week.

I've said right from the start that I'm not sure about Bradley Wiggins. He is not in the kind of condition he was in last year and I would not be surprised if we do not see him again after the rest day today.

However - it could of course be that he has been telling the truth about becoming more of an explosive climber and he is lulling everyone into a false sense of security.

Charlie Wegelius was suggesting that Wiggins has been suffering from the same thing Dario Cataldo was earlier in the week

I'd seen Vaughters saying the that Wegelius had mentioned this to him too.

He hasn't looked like Wiggins 2012 vintage at any point during 2013. Virus or no virus I think he's struggling to follow up 2012 and knowing how noisy his 'inner chimp' is I think he needs someone like Shane Sutton to start shouting at him again.

Maybe Sky do have a plan. Urán off the front - trying to break Nibali's foot-soldiers rather than the man himself, I fancy, but a shift from Business As Usual nonetheless.

Sky have a dilemma now Rigoberto or Brad, Uran looked good today but Brad finish Ok - much depends on Niboli and Evans and whether they can keep it up for two weeks.

Brad still looks OK as long as he doesn't have to go downhill in the rain!!

Unless (and this is a pretty big unless) Sky know something we don't about one of the climbs where they are confident that Brad can climb it at a far higher watts per kg than we have previously seen thereby putting a minute or more in Nibbles then I would say that that no dilemma exists.

I saw an interesting chat with Dave Brailsford after the stage yesterday where he said that they have to attack wherever they can. He wasn't playing down what Brad may or may not do.

I think that Uran is now plan A but I can't see him winning the whole thing.

Wiggins is cooked, losing gobs of time on the flattest of stages. If he is struggling with a chest infection this weather won't be helping any, but either way, he's done.
Urán the man now.

If Uran is the man then why did Sky only give him one man while sending back 6 men to look after Brad?

I appreciate that yesterday was a fairly innocuous stage but.......I remember a long conversation last year around Froomegate where Froome should have been sent up the road to win the stage but was ordered to stay where he was 'just in case' Brad needed him.

I think having Brad still there is no good for him or the team as whilst Brailsford might be saying he is the leader I think his team and his DS's still have loyalty to Brad.