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| Quote ="wire-flyer"I guess one year you might be right
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We are not in the WCC, so it won`t be this year.
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Club Owner | 7605 | No Team Selected |
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| Top two with Saints.
Salford looking at potential relegation.
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| Quote ="Paul Youane"Top two with Saints.
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Thats the spirit
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| Quote ="Paul Youane"Top two with Saints.
Salford looking at potential relegation.'"
I can't give you an argument.
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| I feel my blind optimism surging back. It feels a bit like my wife's description of childbirth, "if I properly remembered how painful it was I would never have had the second!"
If I properly remembered how poor last season was I would be predicting us struggling to make the top 5...and yet...
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| i genuinely hope that I'm off the mark here as I'm usually in the optimistic camp and it pains me to say it, but as it stands I think the best we can muster is a dogfight for the last play off spot before narrowly missing out.
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| Based on recent history, the stats indicate ...
We have an even chance of getting to Wembley and then an even chance of winning the CC
We will most likely make the playoffs.
We have a 1/4 chance of making the final which we will lose.
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| Quote ="rubber duckie"Top plus win CC and GF....and WCC'"
Nurse.....nurse.....hes out of bed again
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| History shows us 345 in top 5 is not 1/4.
It's zero
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| Quote ="rubber duckie"History shows us 345 in top 5 is not 1/4.
It's zero'"
Dont understand.
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| Quote ="Wires71"Dont understand.'"
It means I don't agree with your stats and odds again.
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| Quote ="Wires71"Based on recent history, the stats indicate ...
We have an even chance of getting to Wembley and then an even chance of winning the CC
We will most likely make the playoffs.
We have a 1/4 chance of making the final which we will lose.'"
I like thinking about things probabilistically like this.
At this point, my totally subjective - not based on any statistical modelling information or projections - guesstimate would be:
Making Wembley: 20%
Winning the CC: 10%
Winning the League Leaders' Shield: 10%
Making the playoffs: 55%
Making the Grand Final: 10%
Winning the Grand Final: 5%
That would give us a 1 in 200 chance of winning the double and 1 in 2000 chance of the treble, assuming the events are independent. In practice the odds of making/winning the Grand Final would go up if we won the LLS and might go down if we won the CC, but I haven't factored that in.
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International Star | 2456 | No Team Selected |
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| Can easily see us finishing 7th or 8th unless Price comes up with better tactics.
He seemed totally lost in the 2nd half of last season except for in the cup.
And he tried to play the cup tactics in the league after the CC win. It failed
Our squad is full of top performers but Price isn't getting anywhere near the best out of them and I've seen absolutely nothing to show he knows how to.
I hope I'm wrong but for the 1st time since Lowe's was the coach I can't say I'm looking forward to the season.
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Moderator | 4692 | No Team Selected |
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| Quote ="sally cinnamon"I like thinking about things probabilistically like this.
At this point, my totally subjective - not based on any statistical modelling information or projections - guesstimate would be:
Making Wembley: 20%
Winning the CC: 10%
Winning the League Leaders' Shield: 10%
Making the playoffs: 55%
Making the Grand Final: 10%
Winning the Grand Final: 5%
That would give us a 1 in 200 chance of winning the double and 1 in 2000 chance of the treble, assuming the events are independent. In practice the odds of making/winning the Grand Final would go up if we won the LLS and might go down if we won the CC, but I haven't factored that in.'"
Did you allow for the possibility of one of the top clubs being docked points for breaching the salary cap ? I only ask because my model suggests we have a 13% chance of winning the LLS.
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| Quote ="rubber duckie"It means I don't agree with your stats and odds again.'"
That's fair enough but I don't think your utterance was an English sentence.
"History shows us 345 in top 5 is not 1/4.
It's zero"
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| Quote ="sally cinnamon"I like thinking about things probabilistically like this.
At this point, my totally subjective - not based on any statistical modelling information or projections - guesstimate would be:
Making Wembley: 20%
Winning the CC: 10%
Winning the League Leaders' Shield: 10%
Making the playoffs: 55%
Making the Grand Final: 10%
Winning the Grand Final: 5%
That would give us a 1 in 200 chance of winning the double and 1 in 2000 chance of the treble, assuming the events are independent. In practice the odds of making/winning the Grand Final would go up if we won the LLS and might go down if we won the CC, but I haven't factored that in.'"
Based on last 10 seasons.
Making Wembley 6/10 = 60%
Winning the CC 4/10 = 40%
LLS 2/10 = 20%
Making the playoffs = 9/10 = 90%
Making the GF = 4/10 = 40%
Winning the GF = 0/10 = 0%
Price Tenure
Making Wembley 2/2 = 100%
Winning the CC 1/2 = 50%
LLS 0/2 = 0%
Making the playoffs = 2/2 = 100%
Making the GF = 1/2 = 50%
Winning the GF = 0/2 = 0%
Statistically we are better with Price than the average of the last 10 years. But it doesn't feel like that.
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International Star | 4705 | No Team Selected |
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| Let’s be blunt, for 2/3rds of the season we played like a team that had been introduced to each other half an hour before kick off. The most important question is, has SP learned his lesson?
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| Quote ="Captain Hook" has SP learned his lesson?'"
What lesson though? He was of the opinion it was a successful season. It was KP who had do disavow that opinion.
I'm not expecting Price to have a volte-face and deliver the equivalent of the Harlem Globetrotters next season.
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International Star | 1903 | No Team Selected |
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| It depends on what the objectives of the club are. If Price is instructed to win, obtain a successful win:loss ratio and reach the major finals, his approach is unlikely to change.
However, if KF wants to push this ‘brand’ he may suggest a more attractive style accepting that comes at an occasional slip up.
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International Star | 1100 | No Team Selected |
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| Karl Fitzpatrick, such a joker
He’s got us with more “ stage props” off the field than “ props” on it.
And just to re- emphasise, If last season wasn’t a successful season, I’ll take another unsuccessful season this time round.
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| Too right....offer me a CC win on no GF....I'd take it...but I still expect us win everything.
Another pathetic back end stretch or lose any of our 1st three games....I'll run him the airport myself.
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Player Coach | 14215 | No Team Selected |
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| Quote ="rubber duckie"Too right....offer me a CC win on no GF....I'd take it...but I still expect us win everything.
Another pathetic back end stretch or lose any of our 1st three games....I'll run him the airport myself.'"
I would take 1 GF win over all the 4 CC wins.
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Player Coach | 14215 | No Team Selected |
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| Quote ="Superblue"
And just to re- emphasise, If last season wasn’t a successful season, I’ll take another unsuccessful season this time round.'"
It's interesting as you claim not winning the GF as successful?
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International Star | 4705 | No Team Selected |
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| Quote ="Superblue"Karl Fitzpatrick, such a joker
He’s got us with more “ stage props” off the field than “ props” on it.
And just to re- emphasise, If last season wasn’t a successful season, I’ll take another unsuccessful season this time round.'"
And you will probably have a lot more elbow room while doing so
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