I cannot see how those figures can be realistic, when the epicentre of this virus is already on the downward curve in terms of new cases, and the deaths from those currently infected. We are nowhere near their levels, and with higher levels of hygiene (typically) over here, living conditions not as cramped or close, I cannot foresee those levels you mention coming to fruition. That is not to say that I am going to be any less cautious

I was very much of same mindset until this last week.But reading the imperial college documents and looking like on verge of lockdown I fear DM's post is more likely and some serious hard times ahead

You are in for a shock suprise then. This is gonna get a lot worse in the west before it gets better. The situation in Italy, France and Spain should tell you what is yet to come.

Europe is now classed as the epicentre. China brought this under control within 3 months but that was with a collective national effort with everyone pulling in the same direction, the collective over the individual and that meant yes people individual rights were infringed upon. Literally no one was going out, people who went out all wore masks. Heads were appointed for neighbourhoods who managed people coming and going to get essentials, delivery drivers wore gloves and avoided any physical contact when delivering, equipment was disinfected multiple times a day, people working had to log their temperature multiple times a day. Wechat would collate individuals data (linked in with social credit system) and stop people travelling who needed to be isolation.

I guess the point I'm making is we are facing one hell of a challenge to bring this thing under control and the government will IMO have to implement more stringent measures.

Germany is reporting near enough 2000 new cases per day. Europe should have looked at the Chinese and South Korean response.

You're probably right but, in China, people generally do as they are told, something that just doesn't happen in the Western World.
Also ,in China, for all of it's faults, they are great at mobilising people and getting government projects done quickly and efficiently - none of the NIMBY stuff over there, over hear we are too soft with peoples opinions and dont want to upset anyone.

Even the government advice is just too wishy washy, leaving it for everyone to make up their own mind.
This can be great in certain circumstances but, in a time of crisis, it's probably better if the advice given is black and white.
The time for pishing about has gone.

Bare minimum should be mass testing. Lots of People with symptoms finding it a real struggle to get tested. If you have no symptoms then totally forget it. The government know there is people who show no symptoms but can spread the virus. South Korea for example done huge testing of population and people with virus were not sent back to homes with family and friends to isolate so they couldn't spread the virus.

Indeed
Back in the UK we all but stopped testing people, which was to help with staffing numbers in hospitals etc.
Unfortunately, unless someone is admitted to hospital, nobody has a clue as to who has the disease or, which areas are most severely affected.

You have to have some sympathy for those in charge, having to come up with a strategy at short notice but, there are people that are paid huge sums of money to get this right and in theory, we have the advantage of being able to learn from China and Italy but, having confidence in those in charge, is a real teat.
We are all left crossing our fingers and just hoping that we and our loved ones remain healthy.

Ah, yet another expert who knows all the logistics involved, can we assume you will be joining COBRA at some point



Mate, you have no idea, none of us does.

The Government based it's decision to implement social distancing on an Imperial College report. Going off that, social distancing is likely to continue for 12-18 months so we can consider the season done.

And next season too ?

If they stick to the recommendations of that report then at best it would start late. Lots of things are likely to change between now and then though (including people getting sick of putting their lives on hold) so who knows.

exactly , the government know 70 to 80 % of us will get this , some with no symptoms or with nothing more than a sore throat or little a slight temperature . All they are doing is keeping the numbers down so the N.H.S do not get over run , eventually they will have to let it take its course or the economy will never recover .Young people are not going to put their lives on hold for much longer when it has no serious impact on themselves

The first wave of Spanish flu at the end of WWI was typical in that it hit mainly the oldest and youngest but the 2nd wave was different hitting the 5-55 age group hardest.

yes, and it was 1918-1920, over 100 years ago, medicine and science have moved on somewhat, fingers crossed we don't see resurgence once the initial spread has abated, whenever that may be. Everyone is looking closely at China, the first spread appears to be lessening, what happens there in the ext six weeks when isolation measures are relaxed will tell us a lot.

Agree totally about the knowledge and care differences - 2 reasons why simple comparisons of such as death rates can be misleading. As for resurgence, the IC modelling shows repeated (although slowly decreasing) 'surges' with some of the mitigating actions being turned on and off at certain trigger points (% of icu bed occupation) occurring for a considerable period of time. I've not looked closely enough at the report to know if the reduction is due to assumed immunity building up in the population but any mutation of the virus could well put paid to that!

For much longer? It's been what, two days since any meaningful advice has been given by the Government? There are too many idiots in this country for any measures to ever be a success. Embarassing the state of this country at the moment, too many feel far too priviledged and don't have any backbone. It's likely a total lockdown is coming, this weekend or next and it'll be interesting to see how long that holds before you get looting and protests and social disorder. This country certainly won't behave well like the other countries in lockdown have. And it'll be those that have their spare room full from floor to ceiling with toilet roll and food they can't get through that will kick off and it'll be because they're spoilt and bored rather than desperate and starving.

Well at least they changed there mind. Government first response was herd immunity which would have seen crazy level of deaths when you have no vaccine.

Don't think it was and pretty sure the herd immunity comments were made in a reply to a question from the floor. The restrictions were always coming in, just question marks as to their timing for maximum effectiveness.

Apparently some 4000 French citizens appear to think the restrictions imposed by their government don't apply to them and have been fined for breaking them today.

We're going to get locked down, with police and military on the streets. It's a matter of if not when IMO. It's the only way they'll achieve the social distancing required.

It may just start with London.

China have just released the name of the first person to contract Coronavirus....
























Ah Chu.

With airlines going to the wall and insurance companies pricing in a 14 day stay on a foreign ventilator I fear our transatlantic and cross channel expansions will be untenable. Lets hope the M62 stays open.

Football suspension extended to at least April 30th. If sport restarts, we'll all be fighting for summer audiences

I think everyone would settle for having to fight for summer audiences.
The one thing for sure is that there wont be too many people away on holiday.

With all the news that's going about, anything in 2020 wold be a huge win.

The severity of the Virus hasn't begun to hit home for most people yet.