And they have, so tenth it is. Until next week when we plunge further down the table.

Does FA still have us finishing fifth?

Can't see it happening now.

It's not been happening for about five games to be fair, although some people are still kidding themselves.

This is because, and you are not alone, you don't understand that one team's win is another team's loss. They can't ALL win ALL their games.

The spreadsheet prediction now looks like this:

Wigan 45
Warrington 43
Hudds 38
Leeds 37
Hull FC 30
Bradford 28
Catalans 28
Hull KR 28
St. Helens 23
Widnes 22
Wakefield 21
Castleford 16
London 9
Salford ** 8

.... BUT that clearly means we could, on those figures, make the 8 with only 24 points.

It's entirely possible but I look at it in simple terms without having a clue of the other teams fixtures. Bradford will win one more game, the teams around them will likely win more than one.

Our remaining fixtures:

Wigan away
Hull FC home
Wakefield away
Catalans home
Castleford away
London home
Huddersfield home

I can't see us beating Wigan, Catalans or Huddersfield. We should hopefully win against Catleford and London. So the key games for me are Hull FC and Wakefield. If we can win those we should make the top 8.

We've got a week off after Wigan due to the challenge cup, Hull on the other hand are away to Catalans 6 days before they play us. Could give us a slight advantage.

On current form we'd have a good chance of a result versus London but we lost to them in the cup so it's not a foregone conclusion.

Wigan are on a slump but we seem to specialise in giving other teams the chance to find some form at the moment.

We certainly owe Hull one given recent games against them so I'd love to see us get a result there.

Wakey are on the up at the moment so that's a toughie.

Catalans could be a possible win if they continue their bad patch.

Cas are on the up too so that's a difficult game and Hudders have too much forward power at the moment for us to live with them.

6 points at the most possible I think.

I know there are a couple of people on here in the throes of a deep depression, and while they are like that, they believe the Bulls will never win again, ever, and I sympathise, though I would appreciate if they would stop promoting their gloom to "FACT".

However the fixture list (and not just our fixtures) is the reason I did the spreadsheet in the first place. It looked to me like we, and other clubs in the mix, had key fixtures where one or other would take points off the other one, and it looked to me like we had a good run in.

There are those who are almost slitting their throats, who say we will now get either zero or at most 2 more points. Well yes, but then we wouldn't deserve to be in the playoffs anyway, as it would have been a disaster of epic proportions, and the worst run of form, by far, in the history of the club. It would make teh worst of the McNamara years seem like halcyon days.

But the fact is, with fixtures including Hull, Wakey, Cas, London (and even Shudds at home - which [imight[/i be an irrelevant fixture for them) there is no insurmountable reason why we can't make the 8.

Anyway, if Bullseye is right, 6 points wouldn't be enough, but the spreadsheet says probably 8 points would. That would set it up superbly - that would mean our last fixture at home to Huddersfield would be do-or-die for us, and if we won it, we would make the 8. Assuming we can raise a fit team, then while Hudds would be favourites, it would only be by a 6 point margin or so, which hardly leaves us as no-hopers, and would be much shorter odds than we were last time we met.

There is always a chance - i think after the wigan game and a week off we need Sammutt & Gale back at 6 & 7, along with Kearney, Langley and whoever else is out -

if we can keep a balanced team with no more injuries, we can beat any of the teams in our last 6 fixtures,

We beat Hudds once we can do it again, Catalans & Hull FC not been playing particularly well as of late,
and the other 3 are very winnable,

Just my opinion

Thanks for clearing that up for me....

Course we can make the top 8.

Get behind it losers!!!!


COYB!!!!!

Smell my cheese Cod Heads!!!

Wigan - cant see their "slump" continuing, they'll be desparate to win after losing against Cas, will have memories of last year's result. Little to no chance

Wakey & cas away - both are similar standard to us, could go either way, but both are in better form that us and have home advantage. Might win one.

Hull - they seem to be doing their best to throw away games that they should win easily. That might help us. Otherwise they're a much better team than us.

Catalans - depends which Catalans team turns up. We're not helped by their sizeable ex Bulls contingent. Hat trick for Whitehead

London - should win

Giants - depends on whether they have anything to play for

Its possible to make a case for us winning nearly all of the remaining games. But, given our form and injuries, 2 or 3 is probably the best we can expect

Lot's of things don't follow their natural course in sport; could lose this, will lose that, means Diddly Squat; we'll win what we win and lose what we lose.

My best guess is currently an honourable fail. However I've been wrong before..

Might as well close the forum down then?




See, I just knew it. I KNEW that there must be one person, somewhere, amongst all the users, who had been wrong before. So, it's you, is it?

This problem requires some quantum statisical analysis as we have both varying probabilities of particular results, and a certain degree of uncertainty. So I asked a freind in the city who writes gambling algorthems - sorry investment strategy tools - for an investment bank, to process the reamining fixtures. After waiting for processing time on the supercomputer - he was delayed by Chinese hackers and the CIA - he came up with the following prediction - 10th. Mind you it went on to suggest the moon was made of chesse and Elvis lives in Thackley?

Sure ain't me anyway. You have had your fair share tho FA.

No, we now know it's poor old Bulliac, and statistically there can't be two.

It's like the guy who was stopped carrying a bomb onto a plane. He explained it was for his own safety. He had analysed the risk of a bomb being on board a plane on which he was travelling and calculated that although it was vanishingly small, nevertheless he couldn't actually eliminate it. However, the chances of there being TWO bombs on a plane ...
=#FFFFFFmay, some say, be the same as ours of making the 8

Ha ha, I'll carry the can as the guy who admits to the human condition!

I'll, leave you with this thought, which used to be my sig a few years back: why are fools and fanatics always so certain when wiser people are never quite so sure?
It would make a good motto for any message board...

I don't know...

So many tough questions

We are currently 3 points behind Saints
Saints have to play Cas, Wigan, Catalans, London, Wakey, Hull FC + Wolves
Bulls have to Play Cas, Wigan, Catalans, London, Wakey, Hull FC + Huddersfield

It doesn't matter about Saints or anyone else, it's looking very much like we need a minimum of 4 wins, which will very probably scrape us in the 8, and if we win them, we make it, and if we don't win them, then we neither make it nor deserve to.

Not sure if 4 wins will get you in now