In order to take my mind off the Cup Final (which is starting to well and truly dominate my thoughts now that last night's game is out of the way), I've been looking into who we will have to play if we are to get to Old Trafford again, and have come up with the following 3 scenarios:

[uScenario 1: We finish 4th and win at Wigan in the first round of play offs[/u

Week 1

Wigan v [uLeeds[/u
[uSt Helens[/u v Warrington
[uHull[/u v Crusaders
[uHuddersfield[/u v Hull K R

Week 2

[uWigan[/u v Hull
[uWarrington[/u v Huddersfield

Week 3

St Helens v Warrington (Saints would get the coach's pick and would no doubt pick Warrington)
Leeds v Wigan

So, in this scenario we'd have to beat Wigan twice to get to, more than likely, another Grand Final v Saints

[uScenario 2: We finish 4th and lose at Wigan in the first round of play offs[/u

Week 1

[uWigan[/u v Leeds
[uSt Helens[/u v Warrington
[uHull[/u v Crusaders
[uHuddersfield[/u v Hull K R

Week 2

[uLeeds[/u v Hull
[uWarrington[/u v Huddersfield

Week 3

Wigan v Warrington (Wigan would get the coach's pick and would no doubt pick Warrington)
St Helens v Leeds

So in this scenario we would have to beat Hull, then win at Saints, to get to a Grand Final against, most likely, Wigan

[uScenario 3: We finish 5th[/u

Week 1

[uWigan[/u v Hull
[uSt Helens[/u v Warrington
[uLeeds[/u v Crusaders
[uHuddersfield[/u v Hull K R

Week 2

Hull v [uLeeds[/u
[uWarrington[/u v Huddersfield

Week 3

Wigan v Warrington (Wigan would get the coach's pick and would no doubt pick Warrington)
St Helens v Leeds

So in this scenario we'd have to beat Crusaders (or whoever else finishes 8th) then win at Hull, then win at Saints, then play (probably) Wigan in the Grand Final.

So, obviously the ideal scenario is to finish 4th and win at Wigan in Week 1. Failing that, I would definitely take finishing 4th and going down the scenario 2 route than the alternative which would happen if we finished 5th, making a mockery of all the speculation about it being better if we finished 5th. Sure, we'd have an easier game in week 1, but would then have to go to Hull (probably) instead of playing them at home, and either way we'd have to go to Saints and win in order to get to Old Trafford.

Obviously, I've made a lot of assumptions here (mainly that the top 8 will remain as it is currently), and the results in each scenario are purely my opinion, and perhaps I've been a little harsh on Warrington in particular, but it's just the way I think it'd work out. However, I do think that whatever happens, Leeds, Wigan, Saints & Warrington will be the final 4 teams.

Apologies for the length of this, but I wanted to explore every possible route to Old Trafford for us. Any thoughts??

On further reflection, if we do lose at Hull in two weeks time, chances are we'd finish 6th, as Hiddersfield are likely to win both their remaining matches and have a better points difference than us, leading to.... (Sorry!)

[uScenario 4: We finish 6th[/u

Week 1

Wigan v [uHull[/u
[uSt Helens[/u v Warrington
[uHuddersfield[/u v Crusaders
[uLeeds[/u v Hull K R

Week 2

[uHull[/u v Huddersfield
Warrington v [uLeeds[/u

Week 3

Wigan v Hull (Wigan would get the coach's pick and would no doubt pick Hull)
St Helens v Leeds

So, not too dissimilar to finishing 5th, however with matches against HKR and Warrington as opposed to Crusaders and Hull, which would obviously be harder. We'd still have to go and win at Saints in week 3 though....

Apologies by the way if I've made any glaring errors - I've tried to follow the official play offs format as best as possible though.

There are far too many assumptions for this to be taken seriously.

Sucks bad this system - whatever was wrong with the top six system?

Simple yet effective unlike this trite.

A lot of assumptions yes, but I'm fairly sure that it boils down to:

Finish 4th + win at Wigan: We'd have to beat Wigan at home in week 3 then Saints in the GF
Finish 4th + lose at Wigan / finish 5th or 6th: We'd have to win at Saints in Week 3 then play Wigan in the GF

This only really relies on one major assumption that Warrington won't do in the play offs what they've been incapable of doing for the past few years, i.e. beat St Helens. I can't see any of the teams (with the exception of Leeds if that happens) finishing 5th - 8th beating a top 4 side.

Just a thought anyway..... time will tell.

I'd much rather Leeds finished fourth even if that results in two visits to Wigan although I still think that case exposes the biggest weakness in the current system. If the opening 6 play off games follow home advantage there's an almighty danger that Week 3 just ends up a repeat of Week 1 with the possibility that both teams contesting the final could have lost in Week 1.

I totally agree - if things were to work out that way and week 3 is a repeat of week 1 (with the only difference being the venue of the Leeds v Wigan match) it would completely expose the major flaw in this system. The biggest issue for me is that, if Wigan lose their first match, they lose home advantage in week 3, hugely devaluing the benefit of finishing top of the league. Compare this with the previous system, where, for example in 2004, Leeds lost their first match, but (crucially in my opinion), still had home advantage against Wigan a couple of weeks later. I think that, at the very least, home advantage should always go to the team finishing the highest.

Essentially we are going to have to win away at either Saints or Wigan to get to the Grand Final, neither of which we have done this season.

True, but in both cases we haven't needed to..... If I were affiliated with Wigan and Saints, I wouldn't mind playing Leeds during the regular season. I'd feel a lot different about it during the play offs.

Just go with the flow people, what will be will be and you all having sleepless nights worrying about endless "what if's" and "but on the other hand" will not alter anything, not even by one jot.

Go out for a long walk, drink coffee eat cake, enjoy your life...

Oh.

if leeds win against hull theres a very good chance huddersfield will pip hull to 5th so that leaves a hull derby in the play offs

lmao at these scenario's as all seem to think we will deffo lose to saints,just because we have some issue's beating them doesnt mean it will last forever.

Its not fooking rocket science is it? Not beaten them in SL, Including twice already this season. As we are making predictions on the outcome I think its more or less common sense.

Although statistically untrue it is very nearly the case and is a quite incredible record.

I really fancy their chances of ending that sequence this season and yet I've thought that so many times in the past it's now a case of only believing it if and when it happens.

After today's results, we are now mathematically guaranteed to finish no worse than 6th. It's unlikely that Huddersfield will lose in France next week. I'm guessing that game will have to be played at the same time as our game and Saints and Warringtons games will also have to be played at the same time.

So we would have to beat Wigan, Saints and possibly Hull and/or Warrington to win the GF? I can't think how we could possibly do that this year to win anything..

Nobody fancy the Giants chances this season then?

Correct.
You've answered that yourself, nobody fancies the Giants chances.

I wonder why....

There are a number of good sides going to be in there this season and while Castleford and the two Hull sides are outside chances of progressing, the other five have a fair chance on their day depending on the fixtures thrown up.

Not necessarily.

Finish 4th and we could lose at Wigan in Week 1 and still win the GF without beating them again.

"No doubt"? I think there's quite a bit of doubt.

Personally as a Wigan fan I'd feel less confident against Warrington than either Leeds or Saints at the moment. That's not to say I would feel overly confident against Leeds or Saints either mind!

Should they be the final 4 teams in Week 3 (although the team making the choice will only get to pick 1 from 2 possibilities) it's going to be a fairly thankless task whoever gets to make it. (Always go for the lowest qualifier to neutralise the gimmick.)

Leeds last season were giving a gimme (of a choice) by comparison.

Perhaps Wigan will deliberately lose in Week 1 now to force the unenviable task onto St Helens ....... or even Warrington, assuming one day they'll have to defeat St Helens ....... one day ...... surely.