That is the thing, we don't know anything, press speculation, nothing official, lots of guessing.

And there was me, thinking that a forum was a good place to exchange opinions on what MIGHT happen, ah well.

I can see both sides - the problem is that we are so polarised - you view is no deal which is an option but very unlikely. I would suggest an interim deal that covers high level basic stuff like security, air travel, existing ex pat citizens rights etc.

Then over the next couple of years a firmed up deal in time for the next GE.

What about trade, free trade arrangement or, tariffs in both directions (which would be a disaster in Ireland)

Hang on, you said a discussion based o what we [iknow[/i not what [imight[/i happen.

i might have scampi for tea, or I might have prawn cocktail.. shall we discuss might?

You have your opinion, and that is what it is, an opinion, it has no basis in fact.

I think that you need a new threat. This is a Brexit thread, not breadcake



Seriously, do you never try and peer around the corner to see what may happen.
It's as though you are too afraid to express an opinion, apart from "you lost, get over it" and other cheap attempted put downs.

As for as the trade deal goes, there are only two possible outcomes, deal or no deal - why not pick one.
Mind you, you would then be subject to having to explain your thinking.

The rest of the "divorce agreement is way more complicated and there are a number of areas for both sides to find a way forward but, if you like, we can have a go at these as well.

I don't see the point in discussing when you are so entrenched in your opinion. Enjoy debating with yourself, that way you'll only get agreement.

Please tell me what my position is, other than I am not in favour of "no deal".
I hadn't realised that reading minds was one of your unique skills. You do seem devoid of any opinion on anything though.

Your "you lost" quips are the remarks of a child and grown up debate seems either not to interest you or, perhaps it's just beyond your comprehension.

Surely you lost too?

I did, based on my initial opinion, but I accepted the result as soon as it was announced. Since then the actions of European politicians and the Labour party have made me think it wont be such a bad thing afterall.

I suspect it is about to change, as we get into the new relationship negotiations, but i’m not sure EU27 politicians were very active at all to this point on Brexit.

The red lines meant there wasn’t much room for negotiation, beyond the technical and mundane. They were fine with the backstop and then they were fine with the Irish Sea border. Accommodating would be a stretch, but they’ve not been obstructive in the least, IMO. There was that time Tusk had a bit of strop about us not having a plan, but we had fecked them about quite a bit by that point... because we didn’t have a plan.

The plan was to convince the British voting public that there were to many parsnip picking Poles in the arable fields of rural Lincolnshire.
Genius.
The legalities of the extrication process from our European allies was always something to worry about at a later date.

This will form part of the second tranche i.e. complete in time for next GE - existing terms to be in place whilst negotiations continue.

The plan was always to highlight to extent to which we had to adhere to the rules passed down by the EU and our complete lack of any real power to genuinely influence these decisions. There were also issues around the profligate nature of the EU Bureaucracy and the threat of immigration and the lowering of wages as a result. The billions we paid in was just icing on the cake.

So a de facto extension? I agree to a point.

However, I can imagine some hardcore Brexiteers being less than thrilled about the ECJ’s ongoing jurisdiction up close to the next UK election.

If we have to keep paying in to retain access that’ll be a lead balloon for some, especially without representation. Also the EU won’t want to leave trade freedoms unchanged too long, when we’ve opted out of freedom off movement.

The ECJ will be dealt with in tranche one - the trade option is as much a benefit to the EU as it is to the UK - so it can be sold on that basis - especially if there is a genuine effort to carve out a new deal

I don’t think there can realistically be continuation of existing terms without a continuing role for the ECJ in those areas; it isn’t a standalone issue that can be dealt with in the first tranche unless that first tranche is more comprehensive than I think you mean.

Trade in goods will be fine I imagine (although less alignment will mean more friction) but I think they’ll want to limit access to their markets for services in the first part of the deal. Both to show ASAP that exiting isn’t a cake and eat it option, and because it is area where national governments see an opportunity to grow their domestic sector.

Of all the Brexiteer delusions, this is one that I can't believe still persists despite the facts repeatedly being presented.

The EU accounts for about 48% of British exports. The UK accounts for about 6% of exports from the EU27. Their export businesses would be upset to lose us. Our export businesses would be devastated.

Have you replaced your wooden garden fence panels with wrought iron?
Build them high. Build them tall.

Johnson and his party are totally tied to Brexit so whatever the outcome and the lies made people will actually now see what it means to their lives be it good or bad. They cannot hide behind the unknown of Brexit.

Time will tell - EU exports accounts for 7% GDP - trade with the EU has fallen by 9% in the last 16 years so perhaps the scaremongering isn't really quite accurate? Our reliance on the EU is falling - no bad thing.

I think that 7% is just for goods or services. For both together, it’d be roughly double.

I think that you ought to look at our trade with the EU as a % of all of our exports (it's around 45%), it's a HUGE figure.
Our imports from the EU, taken as a percentage of their exports, although similar in pure cash terms is a single figure percentage point of all of their exports.
All of the nonsense about the figures being roughly equal and that they need us as much as we need them was always a distortion of the figures.
I'm sure that in time, we will find new markets for some of our products and we may also find better "deals" on some of the products that we import but, our trade with the EU hasn't been built up to current levels by accident.
The geographical factors, with the ability to source and supply goods accross the channel quickly and efficiently is THE reason for the level of trade that we currently do, not to mention the finance industry, which has benefitted massively form being part of the EU "club", something which can only go in one direction, now that we have found the exit.
The sun will keep on rising in the morning and the planet keep on turning and whilst we may have "taken back control", we have also scored a huge economic own goal.

We can still import and export from the EU, just there will now be costs where before there weren't costs. That means reduced margins and reduced competitiveness compared to traders from other countries. It's similar to if a tax had been introduced.

Now if instead of Brexit, this had just been government introducing a tax (which would raise revenue that could go to fund public services), we would no doubt have been listening to lectures about how 'businesses run tight margins and can't afford these costs - it will just mean consumers end up paying more', from the same type of people who like to shrug off Brexit and say 'it is never as bad as they say it will be'.

But in the end, until Brexit has happened it's all speculation on the future. Once it has happened the effects will take place. There will be a time lag until the impact works its way through, which will give the pro-Brexiters a window with which to say 'see, the sky hasn't fallen in', but then as costs start to mount up, investment diverts out of the UK to the EU, prices rise, they will have to write a new narrative about why times were already hard and are getting harder.

No doubt it will be due to the BBC, feminists, climate protestors, the labour party, the establishment etc, anything but Brexit or the Tory government!

A long read, but a line-by-line explanation of what the future holds - and yes Brexiteers, the world of international trade is a complicated place; simplistic soundbites and 2 second understandings from a white nationalist post you read on Facebook don't help in the real world: https://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2020/0 ... son-s-trad

A long read, but a line-by-line explanation of what the future holds - and yes Brexiteers, the world of international trade is a complicated place; simplistic soundbites and 2 second understandings from a white nationalist post you read on Facebook don't help in the real world: https://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2020/0 ... son-s-trad