So today is the day.

Nate Silver's model gives Obama a 91.6% chance of winning which seems absurd to think of but (although there is some manipulation of the data), this is essentially just reflective of the swing state polls. Silver has commented on Twitter that this %age doesn't mean it's going to be a landslide, it just means it's a probable end result based on the available data.

fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

As an Obama partisan, I think they are overly optimistic odds (I think Florida, certainly S Carolina and probably Virginia are likely to be red so it does bring us down to Ohio and there a small Obama lead in the polls could be overwhelmed by outsized Republican enthusiasm to get rid of him and "reclaim their country" (the dog whistles in that aren't hard to miss)). A win for the President in any of those first three named though and that will be the end of things for Romney.

I think it's going to be a long and nerve-wracking night

So today is the day.

Nate Silver's model gives Obama a 91.6% chance of winning which seems absurd to think of but (although there is some manipulation of the data), this is essentially just reflective of the swing state polls. Silver has commented on Twitter that this %age doesn't mean it's going to be a landslide, it just means it's a probable end result based on the available data.

fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

As an Obama partisan, I think they are overly optimistic odds (I think Florida, certainly S Carolina and probably Virginia are likely to be red so it does bring us down to Ohio and there a small Obama lead in the polls could be overwhelmed by outsized Republican enthusiasm to get rid of him and "reclaim their country" (the dog whistles in that aren't hard to miss)). A win for the President in any of those first three named though and that will be the end of things for Romney.

I think it's going to be a long and nerve-wracking night

Curiously I doubt he was complaining when Gore won the popular vote by half a million in 2000.

Moreover, you would have thought someone of his, ahem, intelligence would understand that it might have been better holding his hissy fit in until the blue states in the west filtered into the results - Obama now has a 1m+ lead in the popular vote which just makes Trump look even more absurd.

It's going to be fun watching https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump for the next day or so to see if he bites at some of the mockery being thrown at him.



BTW congratulations to Nate Silver; after being ridiculed by the far right for his analysis of the polls (including, you know what they're like, being derided by a veritable male model as [url=http://www.examiner.com/article/the-far-left-turns-to-nate-silver-for-wisdom-on-the-polls?cid=db_articles"a man of very small stature, a thin and effeminate man with a soft-sounding voice"[/url ), in the end his model called every single state right at the Presidential level.

Curiously I doubt he was complaining when Gore won the popular vote by half a million in 2000.

Moreover, you would have thought someone of his, ahem, intelligence would understand that it might have been better holding his hissy fit in until the blue states in the west filtered into the results - Obama now has a 1m+ lead in the popular vote which just makes Trump look even more absurd.

It's going to be fun watching https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump for the next day or so to see if he bites at some of the mockery being thrown at him.



BTW congratulations to Nate Silver; after being ridiculed by the far right for his analysis of the polls (including, you know what they're like, being derided by a veritable male model as [url=http://www.examiner.com/article/the-far-left-turns-to-nate-silver-for-wisdom-on-the-polls?cid=db_articles"a man of very small stature, a thin and effeminate man with a soft-sounding voice"[/url ), in the end his model called every single state right at the Presidential level.