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| Quote ="Mild Rover"That is because Saints have generally been quite a bit better than Hull. Hull's extra fans may have cut their start from +10 to +8, or brought them in from 5-2 to 2-1, for example. Bookies set their odds according to how they anticipate people will bet and then adjust them according to how they do - and this doesn't always exactly reflect real likelihoods as some people bet on their own clubs and are likely gamble in a way that reflects their hopes rather than being completely rational.
A couple of examples - England are usually at stupidly short odds with bookmakers going into a FIFA World Cup.
Or hypothetically, you're a bookie. There's a horse - bit of a nag but not a hopeless case. You have it at 16-1. [Andy GraySome merry widow, tipsy on champagne decides it has a pretty name[/Andy Gray and takes a massive plunge on it. You'd probably lay some off, but you'd also likely cut its odds, to 12-1 say, and maybe lengthen those on other horses. Your opinion of the horse hasn't changed - you're just making sure you win.
The aim of an evens money handicap is to attract equal bets to both sides, taking into account reality and perception, then win on the tie-with-handicap.'"
so you,re saying cos hull have a few more fans than kr the bookies will lengthen the kr price and leave themselves open to pro gamblers ,at a push maybe 10% of hull fans in this case will have a bet on the match yet millions with no affiliation to either team will bet on the game so your theory doesnt stand up in this case but i agree with the england example because of the large numbers involved
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| Quote ="dayvoz"so you,re saying cos hull have a few more fans than kr the bookies will lengthen the kr price and leave themselves open to pro gamblers ,at a push maybe 10% of hull fans in this case will have a bet on the match =#FF0000yet millions with no affiliation to either team will bet on the game so your theory doesnt stand up in this case but i agree with the england example because of the large numbers involved'"
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| Quote ="Mild Rover"icon_eek.gif'"
You can`t beat positive thinking.
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| Quote ="dayvoz"total rubbish,why would more people back hull f.c to win if they were clearly inferior to an opponent with less supporters,hull have more support than saints but are never favourites to beat them'"
Bookmakers adjust their odds based on the money that is placed. If for example there was a massive flurry of money on KR you will notice the handicap will drop or Rovers may even be installed as favourites. It is to a certain extent based on opinion/form etc but it is a question of maths and the odds are offered in a way that means the bookies are unlikely to lose big amounts. It's not got anything to do with the size of the club but about the people who are placing a bet. Odds offered by the bookies are essentially based on the opinions of those who are betting.
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| So in a nut shell....
It's not the bookies that rarely get it wrong, it is in fact the fans who rarely get it wrong?
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| Quote ="GraftonRed"So in a nut shell....
It's not the bookies that rarely get it wrong, it is in fact the fans who rarely get it wrong?'"
In effect yes, the bookies love it when an outsider wins because the reason they were outsiders is that not much money was placed on them.
Over the course of the season I could probably predict 70% of the games. However there's no money to be made because most people tend to pick similar results.
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| Quote ="fcimp"Well, you rovers fans obviously think your team/squad is better than ours but none of the bookies agree with you, how strange.
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last time i looked both sides where 33/1, that means they give us both the same chance.
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| Quote ="Mild Rover"You suggested that GraftonRed believed the bookies were wrong. My point is that bookies don't really have opinions, they balance the herd and the size of the Hull FC punt will be bigger than the Hull KR, so our odds/handicap will likely always be [ua bit[/u more generous than they should be.'"
bookies and generous are 2 words that dont really go together MR
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| Quote ="tonylRobin"last time i looked both sides where 33/1, that means they give us both the same chance.'" Where did you look? The majority of bookies have us down as shorter odds in both competitions, you may find the odd one where we are even if it gives you some comfort.
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| Oh sorry forgot to say i predict KR 22-10 with Green scoring 1st try......
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| Quote ="megadyne66"Oh sorry forgot to say i predict KR 22-10 with Green scoring 1st try......'"
I predict that you are a massive rarscalrt.
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| Quote ="fcimp"Where did you look? The majority of bookies have us down as shorter odds in both competitions, you may find the odd one where we are even if it gives you some comfort.
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totes 33/1. in all honesty i havent seen Hull higher or lower odds than us.
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| I got Hull to win with a 2 point handicap. Snatched the bookies hand of almost
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| We're 12-3 up amongst neutral supporters on the VT predictions thread. I think the extra pre-season game will help, but I wish I was quite as confident.
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| Impossible to predict, very evenly matched sides, no form to go off (not that it ever matters on Derby Day) as ever the nearer the day gets the more the doubts creep in.
Rovers by four.
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| i said earlier in the thread, 22 - 18 Rovers and im sticking to it, the mud bath pitch could be a leveller.
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| Quote ="Mild Rover"We're 12-3 up amongst neutral supporters on the=#BF4040 VT predictions thread. I think the extra pre-season game will help, but I wish I was quite as confident.'"
What is this MR?
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| Quote ="dum-dum"What is this MR?'"
Virtual Terrace..If you press board index it is the one near the top, general rugby league is discussed on here by fans from all clubs.
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| Quote ="berrigans bitch"Virtual Terrace..If you press board index it is the one near the top, general rugby league is discussed on here by fans from all clubs.'"
Ooooooooh, you do have some uses coming onto our board
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| 12-22 to Hull FC. Without Mason's influence I fear we'll buckle under the onslaught of the Tongan Mafia.
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| Quote ="Bobbin' Along"12-22 to Hull FC. Without Mason's influence I fear we'll buckle under the combined weight of the Tongan Mafia.'"
Edited.
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| Please please please can we as Rovers fans not refer to them as the Tongan Mafia, There is nothing remotely mafioso about them. One's a quality player the other two are puddings.
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| Ya know Easty. Ya come on here and ya don't show no respect.
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| and two of them are not tongan.
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