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| Quote ="SteveRoebuck"Yes DM his stats look great without context and with stats (as I am sure you know being a Stat man) context is everything. Do you mind if I "borrow" your workings out and post them on Fleecebook?
Our win rate is poor in comparison to promoted teams and our points diff is terrible in comparison. '"
Feel free to use the stats, Steve. It might be worth just clicking the link to double check what I've written. I'm assuming the stats at the website are correct.
You're right, context is everything. The context that really matters is how we perform in comparison to the best team in the league, not the average team.
Interesting we've only lost three games this season - which is less than in each of the previous five seasons - admittedly with some tough matches still to come. Technically, it could be said we're 'improving' but compared to what the best team in the league achieves, we're still some way off that level.
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| I would agree DM were not at the level of "outright promotion winners" which was the mission statement from the get go in that regard we have already failed to meet objectives but that said the objectives were quickly recanted and reshuffled to promotion via the playoffs is "ok" to.
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| In a 20 game season if a club lost two of their 10 home games and every other away game ...the coach would have a record of 65%.
That is a good steady performance over the season....perfectly achievable though for a good side.
Horne posts stats of clubs finishing 3rd or 4th overall....and so it has proved....also-rans.
Close also-rans though, but nobody remembers them....unless it's us.
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| They didn't like it DM Those clubs that went up all went bust apparently so we cannot compare against them.....you cannot win with some people and their sycophantic ways.
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| One did...
The rest are all in the Championship....that's the division above ours.. .
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| Quote ="Stand-Offish"One did...
The rest are all in the Championship....that's the division above ours.. .
'"
It's funny how stats are great with no context when it fits their personal narrative but are no good when they dont
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| Quote ="SteveRoebuck"It's funny how stats are great with no context when it fits their personal narrative but are no good when they dont
'"
In nearly every walk of life Steve its the same, media, politicians, agenda pushers.
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| Quote ="SteveRoebuck"They didn't like it DM
Those clubs that went up all went bust apparently so we cannot compare against them.....you cannot win with some people and their sycophantic ways.'"
Thanks for the update, Steve.
Toronto, York, Whitehaven, Barrow and Keighley didn't hit financial troubles when in League One, their problems came about when they were playing the 'bigger fish'. This is when they over-stretched themselves.
There's no doubt a direct link between a club's finishing position and the amount they invest in players/coaches. The fifth best funded team is unlikely to finish top. The best funded team is unlikely to finish fifth. Unfortunately, we don't know the League One pecking order.
My best guess would be that the promoted teams over the last five seasons are likely to have had budgets in the top three, although with the lottery of the play-offs a worse funded team might sneak up.
Again trying to keep things in context, if we've been the top funded club over the last five seasons, Richard Horne has used the budget poorly. If we're the fifth best funded team, he's done well, achieving more than he should. We can't answer that question as we don't know about the finances.
Of course, a team needs to work within a sustainable budget as 'any club' is better than 'no club' but there needs to be ambition as well. The 'five year plan' to get us to Super League implied we do have the necessary resources to play at a higher level. Perhaps we don't?
Super League was probably a pipe dream but being a financially stable mid-table team in the Championship ought to be a realistic ambition. Sheffield have been able to do it. Why can't we?
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Thanks Wilf. I get a message that says I must log in to continue. I can see a few comments that are on the landing screen but I can't scroll or click on anything.
I've always resisted selling my soul to Facebook so I don't feel inclined to sign up. I prefer to have proper chats on here where different views and opinions are accepted and discussed in detail.
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Thanks Wilf. I get a message that says I must log in to continue. I can see a few comments that are on the landing screen but I can't scroll or click on anything.
I've always resisted selling my soul to Facebook so I don't feel inclined to sign up. I prefer to have proper chats on here where different views and opinions are accepted and discussed in detail.
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| Quote ="Double Movement"Thanks Wilf. I get a message that says I must log in to continue. I can see a few comments that are on the landing screen but I can't scroll or click on anything.
I've always resisted selling my soul to Facebook so I don't feel inclined to sign up. I prefer to have proper chats on here where different views and opinions are accepted and discussed in detail.'"
Appreciate that, Its not everyone's cup of tea.
This the post from Rob Terrace ( Rob Clayton?) that started the thread rolling
Something that someone messaged me about, which, I managed to do, as I've been doing some work on the stats stuff recently.
Its not meant to prove a point, moreover, just provide something for discussion.
Since 17th June 2017, when Richard Horne took charge, 140 matches, 88 victories, 48 defeats and 4 draws. 1 Victory was a "Walkover", when West Wales forfeited.
7 of his first 12 matches (the remainder of his first 'season') were defeats, with 1 draw in that time.
Thats a win rate of 62.8%, which, would put him at being one of the most successful Dons coaches in the clubs history.
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| Quote ="Wilf Grimshaw"In nearly every walk of life Steve its the same, media, politicians, agenda pushers.'"
Don't forget 'influencers', Wilf. You know, that bunch of people who have no talent but persuade people what they ought to be thinking. Turd polishing is the skill that is in most demand these days!
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| Quote ="Wilf Grimshaw"
This the post from Rob Terrace ( Rob Clayton?) that started the thread rolling
'"
Rob Terrace is the photographer & statistician. Rob Clayton used to be the game day announcer.
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| Quote ="Wilf Grimshaw"Appreciate that, Its not everyone's cup of tea.
This the post from Rob Terrace ( Rob Clayton?) that started the thread rolling
Something that someone messaged me about, which, I managed to do, as I've been doing some work on the stats stuff recently.
Its not meant to prove a point, moreover, just provide something for discussion.
Since 17th June 2017, when Richard Horne took charge, 140 matches, 88 victories, 48 defeats and 4 draws. 1 Victory was a "Walkover", when West Wales forfeited.
7 of his first 12 matches (the remainder of his first 'season') were defeats, with 1 draw in that time.
Thats a win rate of 62.8%, which, would put him at being one of the most successful Dons coaches in the clubs history.'"
Thanks, Wilf. Most Dons' coaches haven't been lucky enough to work in a league that has at least 50% 'also rans'. Measuring success solely by win rates is interesting but I'm not sure it's a very good way of assessing 'skill'.
I was in awe of what John Sheridan did but I suspect his win rate probably isn't anywhere near as good as Richard Horne's.
I'd guess the man with the best ever win rate is Ellery Hanley.
Nice stats from Rob Terrace though.
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| Quote ="Wanderer"Rob Terrace is the photographer & statistician. Rob Clayton used to be the game day announcer.'"
Thanks Gary, Rob (Notts Forest) Terrace. Glad I put in the question mark.
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| Quote ="Double Movement"Thanks, Wilf. Most Dons' coaches haven't been lucky enough to work in a league that has at least 50% 'also rans'. Measuring success solely by win rates is interesting but I'm not sure it's a very good way of assessing 'skill'.
I was in awe of what John Sheridan did but I suspect his win rate probably isn't anywhere near as good as Richard Horne's.
I'd guess the man with the best ever win rate is Ellery Hanley.
Nice stats from Rob Terrace though.'"
Yep the argument for wins success under RH is obviously statistically up there, but on a personal basis I loved Tony Fishers and Singes teams, must have been the fire in their bellies.
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| The teams put together by John Sheridan, Tony Fisher & St John Ellis were my favourites to watch.
Mention of Ellery Hanley always stirs up mixed emotions in me. I always considered him the best British player I'd ever had the privilege of watching ... but ... for me that interview at Warrington (28/09/200icon_cool.gif seconds after promotion to League One destroyed any fondness I might have had for him as a coach.
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| Quote ="Wanderer"The teams put together by John Sheridan, Tony Fisher & St John Ellis were my favourites to watch.
Mention of Ellery Hanley always stirs up mixed emotions in me. I always considered him the best British player I'd ever had the privilege of watching ... but ... for me that interview at Warrington (28/09/200icon_cool.gif seconds after promotion to League One destroyed any fondness I might have had for him as a coach.'"
Yes, I've never felt such extremes of emotions in the same day as I did on that occasion.
The three you've named are legends. I suppose I have a particular fondness for John Sheridan as he was the first person to show Dons' fans we could be more than a basement club with no hope.
The day I heard of Singe's death was earth shattering. I could not believe it.
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| Bloody good memory was The House of Pain, everything about it, the team, the vibe, the soundtrack, the mass brawl with HKR
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| We've been competing with the likes of (no disrespect) west wales, london skolars, cornwall so does that win percentage still look fantastic???
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| Quote ="Kick and chase"We've been competing with the likes of (no disrespect) west wales, london skolars, cornwall so does that win percentage still look fantastic???'"
Succinct
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| They factored that into the maths apparently and yes the stats are still "Great" as Tony the Tiger would say!
Currently the debate for discussion is my match attendance being worse than Horne's win rate - I think they are clutching at straws now
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| Quote ="Wanderer"The teams put together by John Sheridan, Tony Fisher & St John Ellis were my favourites to watch.
Mention of Ellery Hanley always stirs up mixed emotions in me. I always considered him the best British player I'd ever had the privilege of watching ... but ... for me that interview at Warrington (28/09/200icon_cool.gif seconds after promotion to League One destroyed any fondness I might have had for him as a coach.'"
I agree but the interview and Hanley's departure was prompted by a certain Mr Harrison just dropping all support and walking away yet to this day we still seem to treat said Mr Harrison as some messiah who only gives us the best players.
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| Before I set off that morning I'd been informed that Craig had 'gone' and wouldn't be at the game. I suppose it was inevitable that Ellery would follow but the fact that the post-promotion interview was all about his decision to quit still rankles with me.
I said then and stand by it now that the decision to go should have been announced later in the week so that the players and supporters could have at least enjoyed the result at the time.
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| Quote ="Double Movement"
The day I heard of Singe's death was earth shattering. I could not believe it.'"
Ray Green phoned me that afternoon and for once I was pretty speechless. I don't think I could take it in and just about managed to thank him for letting me know.
I attended the funeral at York Minster. What a fantastic turn out!
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