Elimination Play Off Sunday 19/9/2021 4pm kick off. see www.doncasterrrugbyleague.co.uk

Elimination Play Off Sunday 19/9/2021 4pm kick off. see www.doncasterrrugbyleague.co.uk

4pm, but I've just got used to negotiating the hot food trailers and the seagulls.



Seriously, a fascinating game in prospect. Now that we know that they caught us with our Covid pants down in the League game at the Keepmoat, when we had to beg borrow players to make up a game day squad, we owe them one IMO. Not sure how seriously Workington took their game at the weekend but the score was impressive on Hunslets behalf. Should be a cracker.

Reading the Worky site on TRL it appears that they (Worky) got rolled over in the middles and a penalty count of 9-2 against them.

Workington in my opinion are the weakest team in the play offs , having played two /three games less than everyone else in the division.

If the little flag waving weasel had not had such an influence on Sundays game I would have placed us in the box seat for the second promotion spot .

Hunslet will be tough but with a few players back I'm sure we can turn them over and progress to the next round.

If we get through Sunday North Wales away would suit our style of play, as the pitch looks very much like the Keepmoat, good for expansive rugby, however an away trip to Keighley ,after the performance Sunday should hold no fear for us either.

This will definitely be our last home game of the season. Only Workington, N Wales or Keighley can be at home in the final.

Week One: Hunslet (H)

Week Two: Away to loser of N Wales v Keighley

Week Three: Away to either N Wales, Keighley or Workington (depending on the results of their matches; we can't play the same team twice)

Week Four: Away to either N Wales, Keighley or Workington

Basically, we've got to win away against all of the teams who finished above us in the table to win the play-offs.

The play-off system as it stands is quite a good way of giving those who finish higher up the league the best chance but it's a bit of a swine to work out what's what. I had to smile at last Sunday's game against Keighley when the announcer said at half time that we would definitely be at home this weekend. That was incorrect. Had we drawn against Keighley, we would have finished fourth and been away to N Wales this weekend.

Given what we achieved away from home during the pitch repair period, we are not without hope.

I knew there'd eventually be some advantage to playing all of these away games together during the pitch repair period, Wilf. It's all been part of a strategic plan to win the play-offs!



On our day, we can beat anyone home or away, so there are definitely reasons to be positive.

Deja vu anyone?
There is little chance of getting promotion via this arrangement of fixtures....
Firstly we will be in a war with Hunslet, the victor of which will be plum tuckered out...and so it would continue compounding injuries and fatigue.
Plus if we don't have Beryl or Johnston we will be a bit lacking ideas-wise.
However these are like cup games and we just have to win ugly so it is possible.
If we beat Hunslet who are in great form, with Brambani back, then we will be in with a shout
I don't think we will though and having said that the Dons should do...
Cos I know nothing.

SO, Beryl is in the 21 named squad. Just hope he can play some part.

Realistically, what are our chances? Assuming all teams involved in the play-offs are of the same standard, with home advantage probably counting for four to six points, home teams should be slight favourites in every game.

On that basis, the home team's odds should be near to 10/11 with the away team's odds at 11/10. In effect this means each home team has a 52.4% chance of winning with the away side having a 47.6% chance.

On this calculation, the Dons will have a 52.4% chance of winning against Hunslet.

The chances of us winning in week two as well as week one would be 25%. (1.91[i (Hunslet odds)[/i times 2.10 [i(Week 2 odds)[/i = 4.011) 100 divided by 4.011 = 24.93%.

Getting through the third week is 12%. (1.91 [i(Hunslet odds)[/i times 2.10 [i(Week 2 odds)[/i times 2.10 [i(Week 3 odds)[/i = 8.42) 100 divided by 8.42 = 11.87%

Winning the final in week four is 5.65% (1.91 times 2.10 times 2.10 times 2.10 = 17.69. 100 divided by 17.69 = 5.65%

So, the calculation based on all teams being of equal standing means the odds of the Dons winning the play-offs is 16.7 to 1.

This may slightly overstate our chances as Workington will have a 'rest weekend' and could be fresher than everyone else, increasing their chances slightly and decreasing everyone else's

If all 3 named halves are fully fit it's Cockayne and Beharrell starting. Sweeting on the bench. Experience means everything in play offs

Whilst I love maths and my degree is based mostly on statistics I really think there are so many variables you can't factor in for anything other than the next game. It's an interesting analysis Mike but it's a rabbit hole. 1 game at a time. That said it did make for interesting reading!

Did not expect Douglas being in the squad , hope he is fit & firing . Big game from Peltier needed also.

Glad to see Matty back in the squad .

COYD

Good stuff. Rob. Glad you enjoyed it. I'd like to think we've got a better chance than the numbers suggest but I think the numbers do put the challenge into some sort of perspective. Not having a 'second chance' is crucial. All you need is another incident like the sending off last Sunday and that could scupper everything.

It could be wide open Mike. I've got a weird feeling that if we can do this one then who knows....

Dons +4 10/11 with Skybet.

A Dons win is 5/4.

I'll wait to see the 17. That said I'm a bit surprised with that. Why would we not be favourites?

Hunslets current form Rob which includes the big win at Worky last week.

Dons +2 10/11 with Bet365.

Tight, but both have Hunslet as slight favourites.

Our forms not too shabby plus we're at home. If the 17 is what I hope it is then I'd back us without a doubt.

To add. Workington have dropped off badly. A trip there holds no fear. Also has anyone else done the double on them this year?

So would I Rob, my point about Hunslet was made with the hard nosed bookies hat on. They did not see the effort last week when we where 3 mins from beating Keighley, who now find themselves as the favourites for the second promotion spot in some quarters.

Workington didn't have anything to play for last week against Hunslet after Barrow had won the league the day before. The Hunslet win probably flatters them, as does the Keighley win against us. The bookies seem to have overlooked this evidence in their calculations.

Bookies odds are not set on form alone, they also take in to account betting trends, if more money is put on hunslet then the odds will be shorter



Looking forward to the game this afty and after brining Ollies granddad last week there’s a big family turnout for today’s game ans we will all be cheering on donny.
I went to the hunslet away game ans didn’t see anything from them that made me think they were any better than Doncaster, missed the home game but that was in the middle of a bit of a Covid crisis in the camp so won’t read much in to that result.
Just need to have good line speed and shut down brambini ans that should prevent hunslet from too many opportunities.
Then (but I say this every week) let the backs get the ball in the oppositions half and the scores will come


Seen you all around 4

Well I'll put my money where my mouth is and 10 quid for a Dons win at 6/5. If we win I'll put the winnings on a win at North Wales.

Happy with that side. Very strong. Good to see Ben starting at 9. Gone for mobility on the bench but all 3 can take it down middle if needed. Strong side as I say.