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| Quote ="ccs"Is Hull RLFC near enough?
'"
4 is g,h or i (so H works)
8 is t,u or v (so U works)
7 is p,q,r or s. So it falls down here...?
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Quote ="Mild Rover"At a whole population level, I’m not sure those subtleties matter too much - you can just look at the number of registered deaths. It is crude and there may be some confounding factors (although I can’t think of anything major), but when the change from recent norms is this striking, I think the message is pretty clear.
https://www.health.org.uk/news-and-comm ... hs-tracker
At a top line level that seems a little unlikely, even allowing for an April vs January comparison. Perhaps I’m misreading it.
Are you sure it is based on a like-for-like comparison? For example, are the definitions being used or the lengths of the periods being compared the same? Whereabouts did you see this?'"
All the data is on the ONS website and the years register of deaths, though this is for Eng & Wales it's representative for UK and indeed how 'deaths' are being counted and represented.
You see the same experts making the same mistake time and time again (it happens in all fields), producing more confirmation bias and all from the original errors at the outset. Most of it through fear of standing out from the rest and thus herd mentality is as prevalent in 'experts' wanting to save their behinds as it is in the general populous. Openly admitting the errors now simply will not happen due to the damage done, it wouldn't just be a career ender but far far worse. They are too far down the road to turn back and admit to the errors.
The bare facts prove that the death toll from respiratory disease as underlying cause of death is fewer than for the first 6 weeks of the year and lower than any first 6 week period for the last 5 years.
It proves that government are not just counting ALL pneumonia and influenza deaths in the C.19 new column (or rather row as it's shown on the register of deaths) but the number they are giving is a massive misrepresentation, their number are total deaths WITH a virus mentioned on a death certificate or a suspicion of a virus present in the deceased.
The governments own adviser Prof Neil Ferguson admitted in March that the vast majority of deaths would be from people with such serious underlying conditions that sadly they would die no matter what. The government number is a number that includes every positive test, or in a significant number, no positive test at all, even if the presence of C.19 or influenza, or pneumonia has very little or no effect on outcome. In terms of coding a death it can only be done by underlying cause, you can't double count simply because something else was present even if it did have a contribution in some small way, or even not.
Counting deaths in the way the government are doing has never been done before, not even when we had massive influenza pandemic's far worse than we see currently with C.19(2017/18, 2014/15, 2009, 1999 etc), this is why the actual respiratory deaths by underlying cause for the weeks that C.19 has been around are fewer than weeks where it wasn't.
This is why the actual number of deaths directly caused by (underlying cause) Covid19 is massively fewer than people are being told it is, deaths FROM and deaths WITH/INVOLVING are two totally different things with regards the register of deaths. That the government have instructed ONS to show basically all respiratory deaths and make them out to be all from C.19 is a distortion of the truth.
That's before you even get to the huge differential in testing numbers compared to say influenza in any given year, before you get to flawed way the numbers re mortality rate have been worked, testing lots of already sick people and a large % die when we know that flu type viruses spread so ridiculously easily should have given cause to question the WHO mortality rate from the start.
Last year in E&W there were just over 71,000 respiratory deaths, ALL as underlying cause of death*, not simply because that RD is mentioned on a death certificate or there's a 'suspicion' as is being applied to C.19 currently.
*just type in ONS deaths in your search engine and there should be a link that will take you to the 'deaths' section, you can download the XLS sheets for any year you want.
Since the first recorded death WITH C.19 (week 11 of the death register), there have been 10,035 deaths in the respiratory disease category in England and Wales recorded in the register to week 16 inclusive (w/e 17th April). That's all respiratory diseases in total including all different types of flu, all pneumonia, all coronaviruses (seven including current type) and anything else that gets thrown into that section.
This total including C.19 is fewer RDs than the first 6 weeks, that being Wk1-6 2020 inclusive, for England and Wales which recorded 12,108 respiratory deaths by underlying cause.
2019 the supposed 'best' flu death totals for years, week 1-6 there were 10,741 respiratory deaths in E&W, all by underlying cause.
2018 weeks 1-6 for E&W, 15,613 respiratory deaths
2017 weeks 1-6 for E&W, 14,249 respiratory deaths
2016 weeks 1-6 for E&W, 10,944 respiratory deaths
2015 weeks 1-6 for E&W, 16,317 respiratory deaths
all deaths by underlying cause
weeks 1-6 are generally the peak winter respiratory deaths.
If you continue to test more of the deceased for a virus that spreads like wildfire you find more of the deceased with that virus or had had it, if they had done the same level of testing for influenza in bad flu years and applied the same way to represent the death it'd likely show hundreds of thousands of 'deaths' in the UK by influenza because most people will have or have had flu, more so in 'winter' months.
But this was never done because that's not how deaths are coded, so why have the government changed the way they are counting and representing deaths when the register massively contradicts what they are saying, contradicts what the media are saying regarding deaths by underlying cause?
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Quote ="Mild Rover"At a whole population level, I’m not sure those subtleties matter too much - you can just look at the number of registered deaths. It is crude and there may be some confounding factors (although I can’t think of anything major), but when the change from recent norms is this striking, I think the message is pretty clear.
https://www.health.org.uk/news-and-comm ... hs-tracker
At a top line level that seems a little unlikely, even allowing for an April vs January comparison. Perhaps I’m misreading it.
Are you sure it is based on a like-for-like comparison? For example, are the definitions being used or the lengths of the periods being compared the same? Whereabouts did you see this?'"
All the data is on the ONS website and the years register of deaths, though this is for Eng & Wales it's representative for UK and indeed how 'deaths' are being counted and represented.
You see the same experts making the same mistake time and time again (it happens in all fields), producing more confirmation bias and all from the original errors at the outset. Most of it through fear of standing out from the rest and thus herd mentality is as prevalent in 'experts' wanting to save their behinds as it is in the general populous. Openly admitting the errors now simply will not happen due to the damage done, it wouldn't just be a career ender but far far worse. They are too far down the road to turn back and admit to the errors.
The bare facts prove that the death toll from respiratory disease as underlying cause of death is fewer than for the first 6 weeks of the year and lower than any first 6 week period for the last 5 years.
It proves that government are not just counting ALL pneumonia and influenza deaths in the C.19 new column (or rather row as it's shown on the register of deaths) but the number they are giving is a massive misrepresentation, their number are total deaths WITH a virus mentioned on a death certificate or a suspicion of a virus present in the deceased.
The governments own adviser Prof Neil Ferguson admitted in March that the vast majority of deaths would be from people with such serious underlying conditions that sadly they would die no matter what. The government number is a number that includes every positive test, or in a significant number, no positive test at all, even if the presence of C.19 or influenza, or pneumonia has very little or no effect on outcome. In terms of coding a death it can only be done by underlying cause, you can't double count simply because something else was present even if it did have a contribution in some small way, or even not.
Counting deaths in the way the government are doing has never been done before, not even when we had massive influenza pandemic's far worse than we see currently with C.19(2017/18, 2014/15, 2009, 1999 etc), this is why the actual respiratory deaths by underlying cause for the weeks that C.19 has been around are fewer than weeks where it wasn't.
This is why the actual number of deaths directly caused by (underlying cause) Covid19 is massively fewer than people are being told it is, deaths FROM and deaths WITH/INVOLVING are two totally different things with regards the register of deaths. That the government have instructed ONS to show basically all respiratory deaths and make them out to be all from C.19 is a distortion of the truth.
That's before you even get to the huge differential in testing numbers compared to say influenza in any given year, before you get to flawed way the numbers re mortality rate have been worked, testing lots of already sick people and a large % die when we know that flu type viruses spread so ridiculously easily should have given cause to question the WHO mortality rate from the start.
Last year in E&W there were just over 71,000 respiratory deaths, ALL as underlying cause of death*, not simply because that RD is mentioned on a death certificate or there's a 'suspicion' as is being applied to C.19 currently.
*just type in ONS deaths in your search engine and there should be a link that will take you to the 'deaths' section, you can download the XLS sheets for any year you want.
Since the first recorded death WITH C.19 (week 11 of the death register), there have been 10,035 deaths in the respiratory disease category in England and Wales recorded in the register to week 16 inclusive (w/e 17th April). That's all respiratory diseases in total including all different types of flu, all pneumonia, all coronaviruses (seven including current type) and anything else that gets thrown into that section.
This total including C.19 is fewer RDs than the first 6 weeks, that being Wk1-6 2020 inclusive, for England and Wales which recorded 12,108 respiratory deaths by underlying cause.
2019 the supposed 'best' flu death totals for years, week 1-6 there were 10,741 respiratory deaths in E&W, all by underlying cause.
2018 weeks 1-6 for E&W, 15,613 respiratory deaths
2017 weeks 1-6 for E&W, 14,249 respiratory deaths
2016 weeks 1-6 for E&W, 10,944 respiratory deaths
2015 weeks 1-6 for E&W, 16,317 respiratory deaths
all deaths by underlying cause
weeks 1-6 are generally the peak winter respiratory deaths.
If you continue to test more of the deceased for a virus that spreads like wildfire you find more of the deceased with that virus or had had it, if they had done the same level of testing for influenza in bad flu years and applied the same way to represent the death it'd likely show hundreds of thousands of 'deaths' in the UK by influenza because most people will have or have had flu, more so in 'winter' months.
But this was never done because that's not how deaths are coded, so why have the government changed the way they are counting and representing deaths when the register massively contradicts what they are saying, contradicts what the media are saying regarding deaths by underlying cause?
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| Quote ="ccs"Is Hull RLFC near enough?
'"
Bingo
Quote ="IR80"Quote ="ccs"Is Hull RLFC near enough?
'"
4 is g,h or i (so H works)
8 is t,u or v (so U works)
7 is p,q,r or s. So it falls down here...?'"
It's Hexidecimal
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| I haven't read all the thread, what's the current situation regarding terms for players going forward into new contract offers. Will there be more caution regards the 'talent' and what players are worth, particularly the higher earners?
The massive loss of income will take a while to claw back, salaries are one of the biggest outlays, if the 'industry' as a whole changes the level of remuneration would that make it easier for clubs or would it do more damage? Could individual players at the higher salary end accept that these are exceptional times mean and that a lower income is better than no income at all?
Sorry if it's been discussed previously
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| Quote ="48756c6c20 524c4643"All the data is on the ONS website... '"
Long story short:
1. Do you agree/accept that mortality as a whole in England and Wales was much higher in April this year than in April of recent previous years? Hitting a one-week peak (hopefully) at about double the average rate?
2. Assuming ‘yes’, do you agree that by far the largest reason for this change to the norm is the the current coronavirus pandemic?
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Quote ="Mild Rover"Long story short:
1. Do you agree/accept that mortality as a whole in England and Wales was much higher in April this year than in April of recent previous years? Hitting a one-week peak (hopefully) at about double the average rate?
2. Assuming ‘yes’, do you agree that by far the largest reason for this change to the norm is the the current coronavirus pandemic?'"
I'm not a scientist obviously. What do you think of these charts?
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status ... 01761?s=19
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Quote ="Mild Rover"Long story short:
1. Do you agree/accept that mortality as a whole in England and Wales was much higher in April this year than in April of recent previous years? Hitting a one-week peak (hopefully) at about double the average rate?
2. Assuming ‘yes’, do you agree that by far the largest reason for this change to the norm is the the current coronavirus pandemic?'"
I'm not a scientist obviously. What do you think of these charts?
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status ... 01761?s=19
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[url=https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2013/jul/24/why-you-should-never-trust-a-data-visualisationHe needs to make his mind up about trusting data visualisation[/url
73.6% of statistics are made up on the spot afterall....
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[url=https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2013/jul/24/why-you-should-never-trust-a-data-visualisationHe needs to make his mind up about trusting data visualisation[/url
73.6% of statistics are made up on the spot afterall....
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| Quote ="IR80"[url=https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2013/jul/24/why-you-should-never-trust-a-data-visualisationHe needs to make his mind up about trusting data visualisation[/url
73.6% of statistics are made up on the spot afterall....'"
That was 7 years ago, maybe things have changed a bit since then.
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I think they’re the best we have currently.
My point of disagreement with our new friend Squirrel Hexadecimal, really, is that he suggests very few people can interpret the data, given their subtleties or (he suggests, I think) inconsistencies in their collection. While there’s a plausible case to be made that a lot of people aren’t great with statistics, these data are not remotely subtle in the UK. And I don’t think anybody is suggesting that living people are being mis-registered as dead.
Quote ="IR80"[url=https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2013/jul/24/why-you-should-never-trust-a-data-visualisationHe needs to make his mind up about trusting data visualisation[/url
73.6% of statistics are made up on the spot afterall....'"
Data visualisation can be done in a misleading way. Messing about with the y-axis without making it glaringly obvious that you’ve done so is a bugbear of mine. However, these look fine and the graphics include the numbers. Also, tbf to the FT, they identified this as the best metric a while ago, in Early April.
https://www.ft.com/content/88f993a0-74e ... d274e920ca
One area where I think scientists have maybe shot their discipline in the foot is in encouraging scepticism and questioning (and quite right), which has found broad appeal, alongside rigorous scientific thinking, which hasn’t so much. And then struggling engage the public on whether the Earth is getting warmer and why that might be, rather than whether it is flat or round.
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I think they’re the best we have currently.
My point of disagreement with our new friend Squirrel Hexadecimal, really, is that he suggests very few people can interpret the data, given their subtleties or (he suggests, I think) inconsistencies in their collection. While there’s a plausible case to be made that a lot of people aren’t great with statistics, these data are not remotely subtle in the UK. And I don’t think anybody is suggesting that living people are being mis-registered as dead.
Quote ="IR80"[url=https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2013/jul/24/why-you-should-never-trust-a-data-visualisationHe needs to make his mind up about trusting data visualisation[/url
73.6% of statistics are made up on the spot afterall....'"
Data visualisation can be done in a misleading way. Messing about with the y-axis without making it glaringly obvious that you’ve done so is a bugbear of mine. However, these look fine and the graphics include the numbers. Also, tbf to the FT, they identified this as the best metric a while ago, in Early April.
https://www.ft.com/content/88f993a0-74e ... d274e920ca
One area where I think scientists have maybe shot their discipline in the foot is in encouraging scepticism and questioning (and quite right), which has found broad appeal, alongside rigorous scientific thinking, which hasn’t so much. And then struggling engage the public on whether the Earth is getting warmer and why that might be, rather than whether it is flat or round.
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Quote ="Mild Rover"I think they’re the best we have currently.
My point of disagreement with our new friend Squirrel Hexadecimal, really, is that he suggests very few people can interpret the data, given their subtleties or (he suggests, I think) inconsistencies in their collection. While there’s a plausible case to be made that a lot of people aren’t great with statistics, these data are not remotely subtle in the UK. And I don’t think anybody is suggesting that living people are being mis-registered as dead.
Data visualisation can be done in a misleading way. Messing about with the y-axis without making it glaringly obvious that you’ve done so is a bugbear of mine. However, these look fine and the graphics include the numbers. Also, tbf to the FT, they identified this as the best metric a while ago, in Early April.
https://www.ft.com/content/88f993a0-74e ... d274e920ca
One area where I think scientists have maybe shot their discipline in the foot is in encouraging scepticism and questioning (and quite right), which has found broad appeal, alongside rigorous scientific thinking, which hasn’t so much. And then struggling engage the public on whether the Earth is getting warmer and why that might be, rather than whether it is flat or round.'"
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Quote ="Mild Rover"I think they’re the best we have currently.
My point of disagreement with our new friend Squirrel Hexadecimal, really, is that he suggests very few people can interpret the data, given their subtleties or (he suggests, I think) inconsistencies in their collection. While there’s a plausible case to be made that a lot of people aren’t great with statistics, these data are not remotely subtle in the UK. And I don’t think anybody is suggesting that living people are being mis-registered as dead.
Data visualisation can be done in a misleading way. Messing about with the y-axis without making it glaringly obvious that you’ve done so is a bugbear of mine. However, these look fine and the graphics include the numbers. Also, tbf to the FT, they identified this as the best metric a while ago, in Early April.
https://www.ft.com/content/88f993a0-74e ... d274e920ca
One area where I think scientists have maybe shot their discipline in the foot is in encouraging scepticism and questioning (and quite right), which has found broad appeal, alongside rigorous scientific thinking, which hasn’t so much. And then struggling engage the public on whether the Earth is getting warmer and why that might be, rather than whether it is flat or round.'"
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| Quote ="Mild Rover"Long story short:
1. Do you agree/accept that mortality as a whole in England and Wales was much higher in April this year than in April of recent previous years? Hitting a one-week peak (hopefully) at about double the average rate?
2. Assuming ‘yes’, do you agree that by far the largest reason for this change to the norm is the the current coronavirus pandemic?'"
There are more deaths, however they are not FROM Covid19, so no, I do not accept that this change in the norm is due to the virus itself, this is demonstrably proven to be a false assumption. Increased deaths as a result of the actions/reactions due to the virus, yes, but that's never going to be mentioned or alluded to is it?
Unintended consequences from actions taken were frankly predictable, these have been covered elsewhere and are valid, my colleagues/organisation see the direct consequences of the actions/enforcement re lockdown and how this changes matters for the vulnerable in a very significant way regards their health and wellbeing.
Remove/reduce care and the people giving care in a significant way and the vulnerable, those with serious underlying conditions die in greater numbers, when the elastic was already over stretched it's obvious there was going to be a significant effect due to the actions/reactions. Induce fear in the vulnerable/those with serious health conditions such that they don't seek help and this means more deaths.
Do you accept the words of the governments own adviser regarding the majority of deaths of people whose conditions were so severe their outcome would not change whether they had a virus or not?
Whichever way people's thoughts are and how you look at data we need to address the fallout, we as individuals cannot make inroads into how government do things in reality. And addressing the fallout is for here at least how we keep a hold of the sport, the clubs, employees and how we can improve things on the back of a jolt that might make certain parties wake and take action for the better of the sport. And that discussion be for all that are connected to it, fans, players, owners, administrators, sponsors, media and any other associated parties.
I replied to a post suggesting vaccines as a solution (from a company well know to be bascially dodgy AF), i didn't sign up just to respond to that, it just happened to be at the top of the threads.
I came here to discuss rugby and how we can move forward re the club and rugby as a whole, maybe leaving C.19 discussion, vaccines/treatments could be left to AOB/tea Room/politics and we chat about the sport/clubs/sporting events and dealing with what 'we' do and can control or have input into and just have that in the rugby chat section?
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| .... try posting in hexadecimal, I'm sure it would make as much sense.
"I came here to discuss rugby" ....pull the other one.
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| Quote ="48756c6c20 524c4643"There are more deaths, however they are not FROM Covid19, so no, I do not accept that this change in the norm is due to the virus itself, this is demonstrably proven to be a false assumption. Increased deaths as a result of the actions/reactions due to the virus, yes, but that's never going to be mentioned or alluded to is it?
Unintended consequences from actions taken were frankly predictable, these have been covered elsewhere and are valid, my colleagues/organisation see the direct consequences of the actions/enforcement re lockdown and how this changes matters for the vulnerable in a very significant way regards their health and wellbeing.
Remove/reduce care and the people giving care in a significant way and the vulnerable, those with serious underlying conditions die in greater numbers, when the elastic was already over stretched it's obvious there was going to be a significant effect due to the actions/reactions. Induce fear in the vulnerable/those with serious health conditions such that they don't seek help and this means more deaths.
Do you accept the words of the governments own adviser regarding the majority of deaths of people whose conditions were so severe their outcome would not change whether they had a virus or not?
Whichever way people's thoughts are and how you look at data we need to address the fallout, we as individuals cannot make inroads into how government do things in reality. And addressing the fallout is for here at least how we keep a hold of the sport, the clubs, employees and how we can improve things on the back of a jolt that might make certain parties wake and take action for the better of the sport. And that discussion be for all that are connected to it, fans, players, owners, administrators, sponsors, media and any other associated parties.
I replied to a post suggesting vaccines as a solution (from a company well know to be bascially dodgy AF), i didn't sign up just to respond to that, it just happened to be at the top of the threads.
I came here to discuss rugby and how we can move forward re the club and rugby as a whole, maybe leaving C.19 discussion, vaccines/treatments could be left to AOB/tea Room/politics and we chat about the sport/clubs/sporting events and dealing with what 'we' do and can control or have input into and just have that in the rugby chat section?'"
I disagree with several of your points, but I do agree on not getting bogged down further with this here.
So, rugby. Even if they get back to playing behind closed doors by mid-summer, I’m thinking now that a ‘full’ SL season is not feasible, even scrapping loop fixtures. It’d be a real shame to discount the games played to date (even as a fan of club that has lost 5 of 6 in the league), and that complicates any restructure.
The other big question is, even with the breathing space of the government loans, how on Earth do clubs plan for 2021?
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| If fans cant go to games then surely more will subscribe to Sky Sports so Sky could potentially pay more? But then with no season ticket sales and crowds being unable to attend i can see how teams can survive anyway
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| Even if the season resumes at the beginning of July which is very optimistic then we'll have eleven games to reschedule (not including Magic or the Challenge Cup). Other clubs are even further behind - Catalans have only played four games, three others have played just five.
Fitting all these fixtures in this year will be nigh on impossible without playing twice a week every week. If we get going at all the Super League season will have to be scrapped and perhaps create two groups of six with clubs playing home and away - although of course Catalans add a further complication as do Toronto who may have to play 'home' games as double headers with other games.
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| I often wonder what it would take and how much interest they would be in our own subscribed RL tv station.
We could still may be have sky tv who would have the first pick of games, and then we could show games from the remainder matches, both live and recorded.
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International Star | 5318 | No Team Selected |
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| I can't see sky being too keen, I've already read reports of them wanting their money back for games not broadcast as contracted.
Paying sky with monies from the government loan would be an absolute disaster.
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International Chairman | 4811 | No Team Selected |
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Jul 2002 | 23 years | |
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| Josh Jones has asked to leave the club?
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Player Coach | 12755 | No Team Selected |
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Nov 2009 | 15 years | |
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| Quote ="Irregular Hoops"Josh Jones has asked to leave the club?'"
I blame Radders for signing him and then going and getting himself sacked.
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Player Coach | 5913 | No Team Selected |
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Aug 2005 | 19 years | |
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| Quote ="Irregular Hoops"Josh Jones has asked to leave the club?'"
Big disappointment if true. Excellent player but maybe a response to Radford's dismissal - Radford had been chasing his signature for a while I think?
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Club Coach | 3378 | No Team Selected |
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Nov 2004 | 20 years | |
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| Quote ="Irregular Hoops"Josh Jones has asked to leave the club?'"
He was crap anyway
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Player Coach | 9342 | No Team Selected |
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Feb 2008 | 17 years | |
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| Heard about the Josh Jones wanting to leave a couple of months ago from the Son of a former sponsor to Hull who is still in contact with AP who is actually quite open to his close contacts regarding the going ons within the club. Wants a big fee for his release otherwise it’s a no go.
Also Cas interested in Shaul and then signing Evalds is a double blow by Castleford haha
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Club Owner | 22263 | No Team Selected |
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| A shame but if he doesn't want to be here then see ya.
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International Chairman | 4811 | No Team Selected |
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| Wonder if we’ll go for a smaller squad now, with finances dictating things.
Can’t see our high earners being retained, and , on a wider level, can see the NRL taking more players from super league.
TBH I think most people will just be happy having a team to support.
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