Exactly how I see it too and you can add Doyle and Walmsley having a full season full time too in Championship. They aren’t championship part time players who need to adjust to full time. The transition to SL should be much easier with a reduced level of risk for the club.

Also, Pratt is still fairly young but he’s got around 40 first grade games under his belt and entering his 3rd year full time. It’s not like throwing a young green back into the team like last year.

I can’t wait for the season to begin.

Looks like you was right about the marquee. I must not have seen the press release from Ellis about Truman. I think expecting too much would be demanding playoffs or top 4/6. That’s not what anyone is doing. I think most fans are being realistic aiming between 9-6th.

Just because we may have question marks doesn’t mean we should instantly down mark the teams potential on the pitch. Each question mark could as easily turn out to be a huge positive, clearly the club believe that the chances of this are high such as that they can re-ignite the form Truman showed where he looked like a dead cert for England only a couple of short years ago.

That's how I see it too.
There are some question marks but they are not doubts.
For me nearly all the team are good enough to play super league, the question mark is whether they'll be great super league players.

I’m thinking between 6-8 games.

I’d be a bit disappointed with 6 but fairly pleased with 8.

You get shot down for a reason.

slightly less than half ... would be a fair target

Is that because I do not watch the team with rose tinted glasses on .

- use better words Willzay - Poptart

I usually look at the bookies for a guide and they can't split us . Unfortunately it's for bottom spot with us both quoted at 100/1 To Win LLS and 66/1 for GF success (all with Sky , other bookies are available) . Sky also have a head to head regular season market ,with both of us quoted at 5/6.

I think there are far too many unknowns and variables about Wakefield Trinity for anyone, even bookies, to confidently predict where we’ll finish.

Starting at the top, who knows what Matt Ellis has up his sleeve, I wouldn’t put it past him to have a Barry Hough like Wally Lewis signing to spring on everyone. (Before any one jumps on me I’m just musing and speculating)

Last time Powell had a gig in the SL he bombed miserably so there’s always that chance it won’t go well or maybe he’ll rediscover the magic he had a Castleford.

Many of our squad, even first choice players like Uele and Rodwell are unknown quantities at a higher level than the Championship. They may become even better at a higher level or the lower division may be their ceiling.

Likewise some of the younger players might not kick on or may improve hugely.

We just don’t know!

Let’s not forget that Powell with Wire won 9? Or so in a row to start with. Then it started to go wrong. It’s well publicised of the cause of that.

That shows to me Powell more than has the ability if given the backing.

A good mate of mine builds betting models for BetFred, and says that Rugby League and Snooker are the two markets that the bookies know least about (so are the only two sports he bets on!). If you're an avid RL fan then you probably know more than the guys setting up the data. Look at Sky's odds for the 2024 table this time a year ago:

Wigan
Saints
Leeds
Warrington
Catalans
Hull KR
Leigh
Huddersfield
Hull FC
Salford
Castleford
London

They got Wigan (shock) and London (shock), and were one out with Wire and Cas. But any RL tragic would have told you Leeds wouldn't finish in the top 4, Salford would be closer to the playoffs, and KR would probably be stronger than 6th.

What I'm trying to say is don't worry too much about the bookies, Trin are going to Old Trafford. @alegend

I've worked in betting industry too.
The starting odds are not worked out by the traders. They are sorted by central companies that distribute to most big gaming companies like Bet Fred or Bet365.
The traders then adjust those odds depending on how much has been bet on that team.
Also Rugby isn't a bit money earner for them so focus on it less.

If you want to see the odds change, put a £1000 on Wakefield. They'll change the odds to cover the potential loss but not by much as it's a real outside bet.

So the odds are worked out by 3 things
Likelihood of the win
Likelihood of someone betting on it
......and then changes in circumstances like a key player being injured.

I'm sure there are third parties involved, but he and his team do build the models for the odds in-house.

If that's all the odds are worked out on, then it really is a punter's market. How do they work out likelihood of a win?

No, it's because you stated and that's wrong as I showed you. As well as the comment about players that can play 2 positions being rubbish at both, which is just wrong.
Also, we've had constant negative posters on here for years, sometimes with good reason, but I'm not sure what you're game's been this season, after we've finally got what we've all been after for decades, a man who has the cash and the will to finally take us somewhere. As I've said, I just don't understand it all in the slightest, this continuous negative spin you seem to put on most things the club seems to do, just a constant bad buzz.

Anyway, I haven't answered the question yet, I'd be disappointed with less than 8 wins tbh, but I'm hopeful of getting low double figures if things work out on the injury front and the players can click.

Never said any player is rubbish So please get your facts right Just said for what we have spent expected more

You are right that any large bet (or a run of smaller stake bets) would change the price as the liquidity in these markets is small . However , in the case of RL , bookies won't buy into a central feed as the interest is too low to make it financially viable . They do this type of business on the higher profile sports , football being the prime example . In the case of RL they will use in house compilers as mentioned above . Some of the smaller bookies may use a public site , such as an odds comparison site , to set their lines for the week , and then change , as you mention , with weight of money/team news.

Expected more, yet you haven't named ONE player who you would have signed instead.

I expect us to compete for 80 mins in each game. How many will we win will depend on how we keep our injuries to a minimum and take advantage of other teams when they get them. I hope we win every game, I think we will win between 10 and 14.

Hope you are right ,not a case of who I would have signed ,more of who I and let go and would have not signed . No point on coming on here and defending my self all the time If we get of to a good start will come on here and say sorry I got it ,wrong ,witch is more than a lot that keep having a go at me if I am right will do .

With some strong clubs at the start I think it would be wise to see where we are come round 8-10 for a good early season review.

I think the frustration is that you are not explaining your point.
We don't know why you are disappointed.

From my point, I like what we've done but there are some unknowns. That's not disappointing. Just unknown.

What, like you do all the time, the guy that said which is a load of rubbish.
Alright, if you want me to quote you word floor word again, you said , which is not far off , meaning not being good enough to play either. Be pedantic about what you said all you want, you seem to think people have had a go at you because you are not cheerleading

, it clearly isn't that.

People have asked you loads of times, who would you have signed that we could have bought coming up from the Championship if you think our squad for next year isn't up to your lofty heights? but you never mention anyone, just criticise. Also how do you know what we've spent, both Matt and Steve have said we've got money to spend if the players become available but they have to be non-quota and there are slim pickings.

Let me ask you, do you think we'll win more than we did for say in 2021 and 2022 when we were spending the least in the league. We had a few good players at the time but a lack of depth, because in those 2 years we won 9 and 10 games.
Let's be right, most people have predicted about the same amount as wins as back then, so I don't think anyone is getting carried away, do you?

It takes time to build up a quality squad even for an established SL team. Coming up from the championship you have to pay over the odds a bit for top players as they'll need persuading that they're not wasting their time. You'll also be taking a bit of a punt on others to see if they're up to standard playing against professionals every week. I expect Trinity to be about 8 - 10th and improve in seasons to come.

Plus the improvement in back room investment and player care.

This is why I’m predicting 13-14 or so games and 50%. I don’t think that’s unreasonable to achieve. I also don’t think it will be easy.