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| Hoping it doesn't get too soft for Await The Dawn. He won his debut on soft/heavy ground but that race doesn't appear to have amounted to much, and is going up to 12f for the first time. Don't think that would be a problem unless it becomes a real slog, as Drunken Sailor bounced back to form last time and is at home on soft ground, and the softer the better for Poet who will probably try and force things from the front.
Laaheb should also be fine on the ground, as should Harris Tweed and maybe Kings Gambit. Rest of them either untried or poor efforts when soft has been in description. According to RP spotlight, Campanologist acts on soft yet looking through his form on Sporting Life the word soft doesn't appear in the going description of races he has won/placed. They don't have German races and just seen on Racing Post form he won a race in Germany on soft, didn't seem a very good one and the rare occasions he has raced on soft ground in the UK has been well beaten.
ATD looks set to go off at more cramped odds than Harbinger last year, who probably had a better level of form. Having said that, last years renewal was probably stronger considering the ground was suitable for more of the horses.
Saturdays picks:
Nightmare to try and pick a winner as who knows what will handle the ground the best, I'll plump for Polydamos E/W. Has ran on softish ground and should have more to give.
Await The Dawn, (see what I've wrote at the top of the post) or if you don't trust the favourites on this dodgy ground Laaheb E/W at a fairly big price.
Bewitched - will love the ground and is a battling performer, with luck in running should definitely be there late on/
Nasri - E/W. Big field here and won't be much in it but wouldn't be surprising to see sprint king Dandy Nicholls get the best out of him.
Modun - apparently a group performer in the making (as was Apache yesterday...) but Sir Michael is a lot less flashy with his entries and unless he thought a lot of the horse he wouldn't be in for the Irish Leger etc. If he handles the ground, should win.
Elyadi - runs off a light weight and will definitely stay the trip, had a prep run over hurdles so should be fit enough. Overturn might not be fully effective over this marathon on soft ground.
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| 5.00 Taqleed 8/1 EW
Gets soft ground it wants tomorrow, takes awhile to ready so will have needed that first run, it ran to 103 off 95 last year it is now on 94 and has had the winter to get stronger
Heddwyn 14/1 EW
Can't not back this with the formlines it has, its second run was 2nd to London Stripe with Power Series back in 3rd both ended up with good form to Dandino last year, Heddwyn's last run in 2010 was coming 3rd beind Green Destiny on heavy ground who of course was expected to hack up today, Agony And Ecstasy was 2nd in that and in its next two races was 2nd in a Listed race in France and then won a Class 1 Listed race here on AW, Heddwyn has come back on AW for its first run of the year with a close 2nd ahead of Point North.
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| 4.25 Fathsta 28/1 EW and 6/1 5 places
Won a pretty poor class 3 race this season and had two okay runs in handicaps, heavily eased under female claimer when beaten 3 lengths last time, reason why I am backing it though is its last run over 6f on soft ground that was in a big handicap at York on its last run of the season, it hacked up that day on soft ground winning by 3 length and eased at the finish it runs off 4lbs higher tomorrow an should be in the mix if in that mood again.
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| 3.45 Dalghar 16/1 EW tomorrow
Wasn't going risk missing out after backing it twice last year after it got beat over 7f by the top class Sahpresa, always seemed to find one too good last year but at the price a place wouldn't be bad.
Also have a 66/1 EW nibble @ ante post on Monsieur Chevalier who I didn't think would be running again.
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| May double Await The Dawn with Margot Did (Ayr 2.20)
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| Anyone fancy taking on Await The Dawn get on Betfair now, the next horse in the betting is Passion For Gold @ 13/1, Drunken Sailor 14s, Poet 13.5/1
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| Final bet of the meeting to rectify a poor Ascot.
Win Lay Await The Dawn
Place Lay Await The Dawn.
Not won over the distance, nor in the class. A few front runners in the race to ensure a decent gallop.
Harris Tweed has pattern and conditions form over further
Laheeb has C/D form on soft
Passion For Gold has group 1 winning form
Campanologist has C/D form on soft and Group 1 form over the distance.
Throw in Drunken sailor who has conditions and stamina.
Poet will bounce.
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Quote ="Live Wired"
Campanologist has C/D form on soft
'"
Erm, no he doesn't. His good form at ascot is on fast ground. His one run at Ascot on gd/sft was in the 2007 Royal Lodge and he only beat one home.
horses.sportinglife.com/Horse_Pr ... 09,00.html
He won the King Edward here, but also ran here the year after in this race and was beaten by the somewhat average Bronze Cannon.
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Quote ="Live Wired"
Campanologist has C/D form on soft
'"
Erm, no he doesn't. His good form at ascot is on fast ground. His one run at Ascot on gd/sft was in the 2007 Royal Lodge and he only beat one home.
horses.sportinglife.com/Horse_Pr ... 09,00.html
He won the King Edward here, but also ran here the year after in this race and was beaten by the somewhat average Bronze Cannon.
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| Not saying he wont win, his rating says he should. But you are betting a horse to do something he's not done before, ie, win a group 2 and over a distance.
His 2 group race wins have shown that of the beaten horses, only 1 has won, 2 have placed and 10 have unplaced.
8/11... madness i tell thee
Anyway, well done to the winners this week. Haydock Park for me tonight with Tom Jones on stage after racing
And I shall leave you with Hull KR @ 7/2
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correct, should have read C/D and soft ground form
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correct, should have read C/D and soft ground form
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| I dipped my toe in at evens, then had a bit more at 4/5. Highly unlikely I'll be investing any more at 8/11 or 4/6
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| Can somebody give me some tips for today, for my lucky 15. Only had one winner over the 4 days. Need some profit today. Cheers. (it's not EW)
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| Bu99er - Delegator has been withdrawn. Had this in a patent. How does this affect my bet?
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| Single win part of the bet refunded.
you have a double and 2 singles running for you.
If both win, you in effect have the 7 bets up
if 1 wins, you have a single win, your refunded single and a double;
ie; £10 win patent with 1 winner @5/1, 1 loser and 1 non runner
£10 x 5/1 returns £60
£10 x 5/1 x 0 ( non runner) returns £60
£10 x non runner returns £10....... making a grand return of £130
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| Cheers LW
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| 5.35
Elyaadi 7/2
RFC Elyaadi and Dayia
Both are sure to get the trip having been 2nd and 4th here in the Ascot Stakes, Elyaadi came from a mile back to grab 2nd that day, Dayia finished the season with a good Listed win in France on heavy ground, but from the Ascot race theres a massive turn around at the weights Elyaadi was ahead that day carrying 9lbs more yet gets 4lbs today covered the FC as both look better then the rest.
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| Quote ="Live Wired"Not saying he wont win, his rating says he should. But you are betting a horse to do something he's not done before, ie, win a group 2 and over a distance.
His 2 group race wins have shown that of the beaten horses, only 1 has won, 2 have placed and 10 have unplaced.
8/11... madness i tell thee
Anyway, well done to the winners this week. Haydock Park for me tonight with Tom Jones on stage after racing
And I shall leave you with Hull KR @ 7/2
'"
Backing against Wire again.
Silly billy
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| Todays bets
3.05 Poet 16/1 EW
3.45 Dalghar 16/1 EW Monsieur Chevalier 66/1 EW
4.25 Victoire De Lyphar 12/1 EW Fathsta 28/1 EW 6/1 Place
5.00 Taqleed 8/1 EW Heddwyn 14/1 EW
5.35 Elyaadi 7/2 RFC with Dayia
3/1 Treble
Margot Did
Await The Dawn
Maqaraat
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| Quote ="rob_a"Bu99er - Delegator has been withdrawn. Had this in a patent. How does this affect my bet?'"
Double Bu99er now 2 of the 3 are NRs
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| Todays bets (winners):
3.05 Poet
3.45 Bewitched
5.00 Taqleed
5.35 Deutschland
No prices yet.
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| Aftertiming git etc but backed Maybe when it hit 11/4
Been tipped Elzaam 11/1 ew 4 places in the 3.45
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| Puzzlingly poor run from a well fancied Bewitched in the Golden Jubilee.
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| Quote ="Wire_85"Todays bets
3.05 Poet 16/1 EW
3.45 Dalghar 16/1 EW Monsieur Chevalier 66/1 EW
4.25 Victoire De Lyphar 12/1 EW Fathsta 28/1 EW 6/1 Place
5.00 Taqleed 8/1 EW Heddwyn 14/1 EW
5.35 Elyaadi 7/2 RFC with Dayia
3/1 Treble
Margot Did
Await The Dawn
Maqaraat'"
Where did you get that 66s on Chevalier? Backed it on Tuesday, and gave it a chance to redeem itself today. Only got 25s though
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| Ante post mate it was entered for both the 5f and the 6f races so backed it for both never expected it to run both though very lucky.
Can't believe I didn't back Fox Hunt again grrrrrrrrr stupid tit
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| Treble in the bag.
Nice end to 5 days of great racing.
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