I think it's about time we had the Cheltenham thread up, with news beginning to leak out of withdrawals and injuries.

Kauto Star is now 50/50 after a problem suffered on Friday. Grandouet is out of the Champion Hurdle, whilst Captain Chris could also miss the Festival after a poor run in the Argento.

Anybody heading to Prestbury Park this year? I have tickets for the Tues and Thurs but may have to miss the Tuesday at the moment. :/

Will be there on thursday, and in the Pack of Cards at 10.30!!

I've never been, I would absolutely love to go. I think it's right up there on my 'bucket list'.

think i may go down for the tuesday..
went tues and weds last year

My bets so far:

Put a single on Big Buck's in November @ 4/5 with Ladbrokes, NRNB.
Done a single on Quevega at the same stake & odds when it was announced Voler would be going for the World. I must've literally been one of the last people to get the 4/5 that was left with Boyles, as shortly after they were same price as everyone else. No NRNB so backside will be nipping until I see her line up at the tape.

Three multiples with free bet money.

Quevega (5/4) & Big Buck's (4/7), with the first leg being Novak Djokovic to win the Aussie open.

The next one was a nine-timer which included a few cross the card sports bets (Man Utd to beat Ajax in Amsterdam etc), plus Hurricane Fly (8/11), Big Buck's (8/15) and Quevega (4/7).

The most recent one was Hurricane Fly (4/5), Quevega (4/7), Big Buck's (4/7) and Long Run (9/4) acca.


Just backed Quevega again, 1/2 - crap price but at least I got NRNB. Unaccompanied only runs if Quevega doesn't, and realistically she should beat the rest of them on the snaff.
Same odds as the Buck's machine, yet it is easy to make a case for Oscar Whisky. Even if you don't think OW will beat him - it is easy to see him giving BB a big race if he stays the trip.
Cannot see anything troubling Quevega. She beat a far better field than this over further at Punchestown last year despite making a complete hash of the last hurdle and hacked all over a similar field to this one at Chelts for the past couple of years.

My swerve of the meeting is Sizing Europe. Make no bones about it, he has had three hard races this year. The first one on heavy ground at Down Royal, the second in the Tingle Creek - ok, he slammed the lot of them but Lynch still asked him to kick on and do it with authority, same scenario against Big Zeb in the tied cottage. Think that could be the Championship race with a shock result this year.
Finian's Rainbow is the most likely candidate, but he isn't the type you associate with a street fight. Big Zeb maybe a bit too old now. Kauto Stone will have to settle better than past twice if he is to ever win a decent prize. After that, there aren't many conceivable options. Somersby going for the Ryanair probably, Wishful Thinking has had a queer season so far, rest of them...

www.youtube.com/watch?v=QUWEnwDgxaw wonder what odds Harchibald would've went on Betfair!

www.youtube.com/watch?v=QUWEnwDgxaw wonder what odds Harchibald would've went on Betfair!

I read somewhere that someone thought the Gold Cup field was high class, could'nt disagree more. So I thought i'd take it apart, by looking at the last 22 winners.
1/ The last 12 had run in either the King George or Lexus in their winning season.
2/ 17/22 had previously run in a grade 1 chase at a previous festival. Cool Dawn had run in a foxhunter, Imperial Call, Master Oats and Jodami were having their 1st run at the course, whilst foot and mouth put pay to Best Mate running in the Arkle.
3/ 16/22 had run in either the KG or Lexus earlier in the season. Cool Dawn was thought to be a handicapper, no reason why Garrison Savannah missed either race, Master Oats was thought to be a national horse, whilst Imperial Call and Jodami both prepped in what was Ireland's top GC trial- Irish Hennessey.

Just by using the top stat, we are left with 3. Long Run, Captain Chris and Synchronised. We can eliminate the latter, as he has no Cheltenham festival chase form, in fact his 2 Chelt runs read fell and 6th.

Long Run will now go off fav. Evens imo, but defending champions have a poor record in the race, and I feel last year's race just fell apart for him. Which leaves ;

CAPTAIN CHRIS;
£25 e/w @ 40/1 with Stan James.

Ran 3rd in the KG
Has festival chase form- won Arkle.
His record on good going (usual for Cheltenham) reads 111211U, his 2 losses can be argued to be unlucky.
His record between march and may ( spring horse) outside of his debut is 11111.

Very much the forgotten horse of the race.

the king george is 2.5f less on a flat track, and captain chris also has a tendency to jump right.

won arkle well last year but can't see any better than him running on for a place.

Kempton form is often a good pointer to Cheltenham, especially the RP chase meeting.

The thing about these 3milers nowadays, is they tend to be wrapped in cottonwool, and only ever appear in the big races. Gone are the days of seeing the likes of Dessie lumping weights in handicaps. Plus, ims, there is also a bonus for the KG and Lancs Chase winner if he wins the GC

Ranjaan OUT.

im pretty sure it was the betfair million? but dont think it is in function these days?

Agree with comments that this years Gold Cup field isn't as strong as previous, especially compared to last year where we had Imperial Commander, Kauto Star and Denman in the race. I do quite like this years entries though, alot of decent runners with the potential to be great.

Liking Grands Crus, Burton Port and Quel Esprit at the moment.

just hoping if i have an outright bet on the gold cup i get a run for my money, for the past two years that hasnt happened. 2010 kauto went a cropper and last year imperial commander broke a blood vessel while still looking full of running.

Kauto Star is looking more likely to run now after an encouraging session at the yard.

Sad to hear of Harry Redknapp's horse Bygones of Brid being put down yesterday after a fall at Taunton.

Took 20s on Baby Mix for the Triumph about an hour before he won the Adonis t'other week, have since had a punt on Grumeti aswell.
Quevega, Big Bucks, Hurricane Fly & Sprinter Sacre in a mixture of doubles, trebles and fourfolds although I wouldn't back Sprinter Sacre now he's as short as Evens. Flattened out coming up the hill last year and the Arkle is a tough race.
Also hoping Grands Crus' owners decide to take their chance in the Gold Cup as I've backed Invictus ante-post for the RSA. If Grands Crus does go for the Gold Cup I'll definitely be topping up on that one.

Peddlers Cross 5/1 - Jewson

Pearl Swan 7/1 EW

Galileo’s Choice @ 24/1 and over 70/1 with place around 10/1

Long Run @ 3/1

The Fly @ 5/2 & 2/1

Big Bucks/ Quevega/Fly @ 11/1

Fly & Long Run double

Quevega & Fly double

Looks like Starluck is going for the
County Hurdle after being dropped to
a mark of 150 when needing the run
last time.
Didn't go right over fences but before
that had come 5th in a Champion
Hurdle and ran to 160 twice last
season before going chasing.
25/1 NRNB looks more then fair.

Hills going 5/4 on Hurricane Fly tomorrow from 8.30am
Don't know how long it will last or how much they're willing to lay - guess there's only one way to find out!

havent seen that anywhere?

Kate Miller from Will Hill on Twitter 3 hours ago:
"Missed all the odds-against about Hurricane Fly? Not with us! From tomorrow 8:30am we'll be offering 5-4 about his Champion Hurdle chances!"

cheers, will have a look at that before i go out in the morning.

just had a look at her twitter, and if anyone fancies a big bet then don't bother, they arent going to lay the 5/4 for big money.

i fear binocular in that race more than anything, if he can perform like he did in 2010 then it will be a hell of a race.

Binocular is a funny one, rarely produces his best in consecutive races. I don't think that anything outside the top two in the market can win it barring a freak accident, and if Hurricane Fly is spot on then he can't be beaten, regardless of how well Binocular runs.

we'll soon see, i know he didnt win a vintage champion in 2010, but if on form shouldnt be far away.

on official ratings, both binocular and hurricane were raised to official ratings of 172 following the race. hurricane now rated 173 and binocular 170. so will need to bounce back to his best and some more if the fly comes on from his seasonal debut.

had a nice win on him last year so dont think i'll be deserting him this year.

Mullins big hopes been weak in the market today, Fly, Quevega and Scotsirish all been on the drift a little and Quevega was apparently matched at 2.5 on Betfair - don't know how true back into 1.6'ish now.

Perhaps something to do with Mullins not giving them the post-race gallop at Leapordstown? Hopefull it's nothing as i've a fair bit riding on The Fly/Quevega! Got a free bet with Hills so going to have a look over the week for some bigger priced ones. Quite like Nearest the Pin in the Hanidcap chase on the Tuesday, been held in high regard with entries in the Arkle and if he gets the good ground he wants he seems to be the unexposed type who could go close in this.

im hoping its insignificant too, ive got hf and quevega in a few of my multiples as well.