A bit early for that aint it?. Got me all confused!

I'll not rise to your irritating eye-roll, but will merely and politely point out that, in Wigan parlance, KR refers to Knowsley Road.

Respect the native lingo before you jump in with both boots.

Haha, serves me right.

What I'm saying is that if you're a 50/50 shot to beat Hull KR and a 50/50 shot to beat Saints, then you're a 25% chance of the final.

I presonally think you're less than that.

It's never too early for numbers when you're an accountant!

I get what you mean (i did take a second glance, mind

)

By finishing 6th instead of 5th we have been given the easier route...Cas at home, then Hull K R away is better than Catalans at home, then Huddersfield away. Then, Saints away is easier than Leeds away so we are being helped towards the final but we are not a very good team. Good team, yes but very good...no. Not good enough to win the final.
However, sport is a funny thing. Shocks happens so fingers crossed.

I'm glad your not mine then! Statisically We have a 12 1/2% chance!

2 x Finalists get 50% chance each
4 x Semi finalists 25% each = SAINTS & LEEDS have this already!

so currently the 4 remaining Qtr finalists have the other 50% between them = 12 1/2% chance each!

Accountants obviously don't make great statisticians!

and i'm glad your not mine, he said that there is a 25% chance of reaching the final, not winning it

A present for the pair of you

You're talking about a different outcome - your odds are to win it rather than to reach the final.

If all matches are 50/50, Wigan have a 50% chance of beating Hull KR.

They then have a 50% chance of winning the next game, which gives them a 25% chance of winning both games and reaching the final.

They are then 12.5% to WIN a 50/50 final. As are the other teams playing this weekend. Saints and Leeds are 25% each to reach and win a 50/50 final.

Apology accepted.

A daft discussion, you can't apply such simple probability to rugby because teams don't have an equal chance of winning each game, it's not like tossing a coin. Also they aren't independant variables, you're assuming that it makes no difference to us who we play, how many games we've played previously etc

If you were going to do it anyway based upon deeply flawed assumptions then Leeds and Saints would each have a 50% (1/2) chance of making the final, and Catalans, Huddersfield, Hull K.R, and Wigan would all have a 25% (1/4) chance. Also Leeds and Saints would each have a 25% (1/4) chance of winning the trophy and Catalans, Huddersfield, Hull K.R, and Wigan would all have a 12.5% (1/[i8[/i) chance.

I'll give anyone 1/4 odds on Catalans making the final, or 1/[i8[/i on them winning it, any takers?

That's a great idea for next year's play-offs though. We might stand a better chance of winning

You may well be right, I'd take it in the first few rounds too!

Its better than the current play-off system



It would get bigger crowds as well

Wakefield got knocked out last weekend

HTH

Stop editing my posts everybody

Exactly - I was posting in reponse to a poster saying he thought the odds of Wigan making the final were 40% - that's very generous as it would make Wigan clear favourites in both of their next 2 games, which won't the case.

Oh for sure, we're about level pegging with Hull K.R, then underdogs the week after if we win, at this juncture I'd give us about half those odds.

yes you are,but did'nt we all shove that down the latics fans throat when he came on southstander slagging you off?
if you get through this round then i think you have every chance and leeds will not select wigan for the home semi.
i'm not overly confident about leeds chances either its knockout stuff more games than top two of the six used to play

You're still the best team in Superleague though, and I really can't see anybody beating you in the final if you play well.

I still fancy Saints to beat Leeds in the final. Evry man and his dog is giving them no chance with some even saying they won't make the final.

Yes i'm from Wigan but I'm going for a Saints Championship 2009.

Catalans v Wigan Grand Final anyone?

Hemmings would cry like a bitch if it happened.

The 7 million home fans at Craven Park may help to reduce that percentage

Spot the tax-dodger!!

Student studying to become an accountant, but I'm sad enough to earn enough from my student job to be taxed