Not in mine. An away tie at Hull KR, Catalans or probably Warrington or Salford will in all likelihood see them out. They're relying on other teams having an off day. Do you honestly see anything in this current Saints team that suggests their best is better than Wigan's?

They could go through the playoffs meeting teams having an off day but it's unlikely.

Top 2 or forget it for mine. The sobering thought for them is that they're currently only 2 points from 5th and have a lot of tricky fixtures on the horizon.

I know injuries can still play a part for all teams but Saints are never going to be "fully fit". I've said this repeatedly and I've seen nothing to change my mind.

Let's be honest here; they are reliant on Walmsley as the one player who could change things around for them. He isn't due back until August and takes quite a while following a long lay off to get back up to speed. By then it might even be too late for them.

It's worth remembering that, should we win the next 2 games*, we'll be 4 points ahead of the pack with a game in hand. That allows us more leeway to rest and rotate so the likelihood is we'll be going into the business end in better shape than a Saints team needing their best players to be flogged.

*I know there's an "if" there.

I still think they have a very powerful forward pack when all are fit. They're not capable of doing it over a full year any more but across 1 or 2 games I think they could still put it together.

If I was Wellens I'd gamble and start both Walmsley and Paasi in the playoffs to try and get on top early.

It is unlikely they'll be fully fit, as in having every single player available and at 100% for the play offs but that probably goes for everyone. If they can get a fully fit spine out, along with Walmsley, Paasi, Knowles etc come the play offs, they'll be massively dangerous. Those games are just different to the week to week stuff and no other side has that experience like they do. Most play off games and grand finals are a war of attrition and a total grind and that's pretty much how Saints play every single week.

Just out of interest, if Saints aren't our biggest threat (presuming you don't think they are), who do you think are? There is no way we do to Saints what we did to HKR in the Cup and Play off semis and they wouldn't make things as easy as Wire did in the cup final. I can't see that this seasons Catalans would offer a bigger threat either, so that leaves Salford. They actually could shake things up if they were brave enough to keep play the expansive/off the cuff rugby they do in the weekly rounds but again, it's just so different in plays offs and especially Grand Finals.

Absolutely spot on. Our biggest chance is now the wet weather games come October when our game plan actually suits.

Its difficult to see past Wigan with their pace and depth of squad but anything can happen between now and the end of the season. French or Smith being out with a Thompson and O Neill say would have a big impact.

Phuzzy is spot on too with our away form and Walmsley taking time to get fit but if (and its a big if at the moment) we finish top 2 then we will at least have players back fresh and not flogged all season- Batchelor, Knowles, Whitley, Walmsley, Makinson etc.

The game at Wigan is going to be very interesting for a number of reasons.

What are your thoughts Stu? Do you think a top 2 finish likely? I know anything is possible but I can't see it with your fixture list personally. As you say, the Wigan game is pivotal. Lose that and I think you'll struggle.

I can't see it no not with our fixtures left. We have some really tricky ones and as you allude to our away form is not the best against the big sides in particular. This is why the timing of Wellens contract extension is tricky for the club because the longer they leave it, the more they will get a backlash if indeed we do lose a couple more in the next few weeks.

In some ways he was left with an ageing squad and a hard task but on the other hand he has been very naive and made a lot of mistakes- persisting with Bennison is one.

We suffered the occasional hammering under Woolf- Salford away- funnily enough- in 2022 was a particularly bad defeat but its hard to imagine as many defeats this season under Woolf even with the same squad.

I think we're in danger of over-doing this. They're not going to have a properly fully fit squad, but they've got Walmsley, Lomax, Knowles, Whitley, Wingfield, Makinson & Batchelor to add to yesterday's squad. The law of averages suggests that they'll lose a couple too, but they could very easily go into the play offs without needing to play dead-weights like Bennison or have squaddies on the bench who Wellens won't play.

Having players who have been there and done it counts for a lot, and I'd say Saints getting us in an arm wrestle is still the most likely way to prevent us from winning again at OT.

To answer the last part first, I think you've sort of got my thinking in your comments on Salford. It's not just them though. I think the same goes for Hull KR and Warrington. They're all "if it sticks" type teams and all 3 are more dangerous than Saints when on. You're right in that we probably wouldn't do to Saints what we did to Hull KR in the semi but equally Saints wouldn't do to us what KR did at their place. I think I'd be more confident going into a playoff game against Saints knowing what we're going to get and knowing that we have the game to beat it than going up against KR, Salford or Warrington and knowing that, if it sticks, anything could happen.

On the first part; I agree their pack is still good at full strength but, as I say, I don't think it will be. Walmsley won't be the same player straight off and, if previous long lay offs are anything to go by, there's no guarantee he'll get back there this season. Of course he may do but it's certainly not a given. Paasi is still working his way back into it and the early signs are encouraging. We still have no way to know if he'll ever regain the full destructive form that he had pre injury. He wouldn't be the first if he didn't. He only need look behind him to Dodd for an example of a player who hasn't regardless of the number of games he's played. Mata'utia isn't the 2nd rower he was, mainly due to being bulked up to play prop. Still a good player though. Bachelor is a shadow of what he was and there's been no indication he's anywhere close to regaining his form. Sironen, great player though he is, is being flogged. Lees, Delaney and Clark are also being flogged. Mbye reverting to bench Hooker will help Clark but Wellens will continue to flog Lees. He just does. These players all ran out of gas last year and they've got a very tough run in after next week. No reason to suspect it will be any different this year.

And all that is assuming they won't pick up any further injuries, players coming back will not get reinjured and that they'll be at there best come the playoffs, all of which I think is unlikely. Certainly no more so than any other team anyway. I'm not sure why we keep saying referencing Saints as if they're going to be fully fit and in form but refer to other teams at their worst. It doesn't make sense.

Just on the players coming back; I've already covered my thoughts on a few in my answer to NK but you mention a couple others above so I'll address those.

Most Saints fans have thought Lomax has been a cause of their poor attacking form and, until yesterday at least, most have noted that they're actually better with Mbye in the halves. Mbye wouldn't get close to our team. He wouldn't be Hooker over O'Neil, interchange Hooker over Leeming or half over Smith or French. The best he could hope for would be back up half/Hooker instead of Hampshire. Lomax hasn't been as good as Mbye this year. Let that sink in a minute. I'm not sure how his return will suddenly galvanise them into something they aren't already. It could even make them worse again.

Whitely doesn't make the team if everyone is fit. He may take a bench spot which would be better than the dead wood that currently inhabit them. It's not going to win them a title though.

Makinson is better than Bennison so that will improve them. I have personal knowledge of plantar fasciitis though and there's no guarantees regarding his return to fitness. He could aggravate it in his first carry back. He may not. We'll see.

Knowles will add to them defensively but they lose in attack. That means using a sub spot for Bell. You're then relying on Knowles as a prop and I'm less convinced he adds to them from that position.

Wingfield will add squad depth, nothing more.

I'm not sure there's anything there that significantly changes the synopsis. And that, as you say, isn't allowing for further injuries.

Ateotd their backs aren't good enough to win the title. Just my opinion, of course.

It'll be interesting in a couple of weeks, I've no doubt Saints will be up for it and if we once again struggle to break them down then questions might be asked especially as the blue print for beating them is pretty well known by now.
I'm not saying chuck it around from minute one but you have to go after their 3/4 line especially Hurrell, he's back to what he was at the end of his Leeds spell, an absolute oil tanker and with Makinson out they've got nothing on either wing to worry about especially as PW won't give the one lad with pace they've got, Ritson, a run for love nor money.

At this rate Roby will be dusting his boots off

I don't particularly disagree with most of those assessments. But yesterday they had to play Bennison who - without wanting to be harsh - offers nothing and they also had two subs who barely played. Walmsley, Lomax and Makinson, even at 75/80%, is a huge improvement on that.

They're obviously on the decline just now and I think they've made mistakes by offering new contracts to older players and not blooding youngsters. Especially now they have so many injuries. But for this season they're not so over the hill that they can't be a serious threat in a big game. It's only 18 months since they were the undisputed top dogs, and I think back to all the times that Leeds looked over the hill during the season then turned it on at the business end.

I certainly don't disagree. Every team offers a threat. That's the nature of sport so I'm certainly not ruling Saints out, although I appreciate it might come across that way. I'm merely commenting in "all things being equal" terms. I think it will be hard for them to make top 2 (although certainly not impossible) and I don't fancy their chances from outside the top 2. It would take too many sides having an off game and Saints being relatively injury free, in form and on their game, every game. I just think that's a tall order.

Also, regarding them being top dogs 18 months ago I would add that 18 months is a long time in professional sport when you're at the back end of your career. Look at Roby last year compared to the year before. I also think the current team is worse man for man than the one you refer to, especially when you compare the current versions of some of the players to their 18 months ago versions. I can't think of many that are improved tbh.

All a game of opinions but the bookies aren't usually far off the money. They obviously have Wigan as favourites for the Grand Final, with Saints second favourites at 5/2 and then a big gap to Wire and HKR at 9/1 apiece.

It's a long time in sport in general tbh.

I was a little shocked on Friday, whilst looking at the pic of the 2022 CF winning squad, as to how many have left the club in such a relatively short space of time. 7 of the starting 17 have gone - Thornley, Bibby, Cust, Tommy, Singo, Bateman & Smithies. Add in the squad players stood in the background guys like KPP, Shorrocks, Partington, McDonnell & Powell have all left too.

Fair enough - I don't think we're disagreeing a great deal in terms of them being on the slide. Just maybe about the degree of their drop off. You're right about 18 months having the potential to be a long time in sport too. It has to be given the amount of ground we had to make up to go past them - which we obviously have.

My view is simply that we shouldn't overdo their decline too early, especially when they're missing half a team. Injuries will probably stop them finishing in the top two, but with a few key players back they are still a force to be reckoned with, and I'd make them decent favourites against both Hull KR and Wire away because of what they've done in the past, and their ability to win big games. Even this season we can look to Good Friday as an example for how their defence and intensity can cause anyone problems.

I suppose this is a long winded way of saying that if I were a Saints fan, I'd feel pretty gloomy about their prospects for the next couple of years but actually feel pretty optimistic about doing something this campaign.

As I remember Saints started the season as favorites last year

No problems with that synopsis mate. As NK says above, it's a game of opinions.

I will just add as a final word that I said they were in decline last year too and that proved to be correct and I think they're worse this season than last....or at least I haven't yet seen anything to convince me otherwise. They were decent Good Friday but it was on home soil and we were down to 12 for more than a third of the game. Worse still the sending off/yellow card were at the ends of each half which I think compounded the problem. Yet we were winning until the final minutes of the game. I haven't seen anything from them approaching that intensity since and their away form in particular has been poor against top sides.

The game coming up will tell us more. If they win, or even put in a good performance, then I'll perhaps see it differently but, as things stand, I don't see a top 2 placing for them and I don't think they'll win it from outside the top 2.

One thing for sure is that if we do continue to decline as expected for a couple of seasons then its not a good look for the game as Wigan will have no real competition with the state of the rest of the teams. SL needs a strong Wigan, Saints, Warrington, Leeds and Hull and the last 3 are still some way away. I thought Warrington were on a bit of a resurgence but they've lapsed again and a lot will depend how soon Burgess leaves.

In 2019 we strolled the competition and no one could come near us, 2021 was a little bit similar although Catalans were strong then.

I'm sure a lot of Wigan fans won't care if they keep winning every year but I do feel there could be very little competition for them in the short-term

I'm not sure I buy into this particular narrative any more, given the record we have in the big games under Wellens so far. You could argue we were unlucky in both semis last year but we didn't score enough points in either and our record against the teams in and around us in the SL table is shocking. If that sort of record continues we have some very tough fixtures remaining in the regular season and the table is already pretty tight.

Got some pretty big concerns with the coaching too, the use of interchanges was appalling this weekend and went a long way to deciding the game in my view. Royle was thrown on at prop and got smashed early, Davies only got on for the last two minutes, and we only used 6/8 interchanges on the hottest day of the year. Madness.

With all that said we rarely if ever get blown away and have some significant players missing. I don't particularly enjoy the tactics but they are effective with a full pack - we are perfectly capable of dominating territory against most sides if we have all our forwards back for the business end of the season. Whether we can score enough points remains to be seen, personally I don't think we have enough strike in the backline any more but anything can happen as we saw on Good Friday..

Longer term I'm not sure, I don't think the coach is the right fit personally so a lot will hinge on his future. There is a big turnover of players coming from 25 onwards and with the seeming reluctance to give youth a chance I have my doubts.

This is the big one I haven't yet mentioned, SFW, and I think you hit the nail squarely on the head. I've concentrated on the decline in playing staff but of course the biggest decline comes at the top. There was a good case for both Woolf and Holbrook being the best coaches in Superleague but if I asked what the pecking order was between Matt Peet, Willie Peters, Paul Rowley, Steve McNamara and Paul Wellens I doubt anyone would have Wellens in the top 3. Even Sam Burgess, only weeks into his head coach career, would finish above him on many lists. That's some fall from grace! And then we get the perceived unwillingness to splash the cash from the Saints board that many of your fans are complaining about (certainly in comparison to Mike Danson for example) and it doesn't paint a good picture.

I think Stu's point is a very valid one. The competition needs as many strong teams as possible and, like it or not, that's driven predominantly by Wigan, Saints, Leeds, Catalans and Warrington. Hull KR have joined that group recently and the likes of Leigh are starting to make strides in the right direction but a weakened Saints is not good for the competition. The youngsters coming through may reverse the trend but I think that's a few years away, if indeed it ever materializes. I don't think Wellens is the coach to speed that transition up either unless his hand is forced.

I don't think on the face of things it looks particularly bad, and it would be easy to explain away some of the more high-profile losses due to injuries. I've even mentioned elsewhere that I almost expected a drop in standards given the recent successes - the only way was down after 4 consecutive GF wins and a WCC in Australia. But there's an awful lot below the surface that concerns me.

I don't think any player has dramatically improved under Wellens which is the main measure of any coach (for me anyway). He has no problem getting the team playing to his particular tune, but tactically we don't have much versatility and if a team can exploit our mostly rigid defence then there is little to suggest we have the capacity to claw them back. Easy wins against the bottom half and low-scoring, tight games with mixed results against the top half is the general theme of the last 18 months, which I agree is a considerable drop in standards.

In terms of splashing the cash, transfer fees are so rare I wouldn't even consider one unless there was an outstanding player available for the right price - that not a point worthy of criticism IMO. If we were in a position to act then maybe that would be different, but we are up to the cap (or close enough) as of now. By all accounts they are actively looking at the market for next year but some of the cap space has been dependent on Mata'uita's situation, unfortunately it looks like he's leaving too so we should have a chunk to spend but only one quota space unless we choose to release Hurrell and/or Blake aswell. The market isn't great and internal retentions and promotions will take a bite out of what will be available, but there should be room for an established back and hooker/half depending on where the club see Mbye fitting in next year. The club clearly have long term faith in the most recent professionals and a few more below them who will become full-time next year. I would much rather invest in them and maintaining those pathways than on big fees for players and I'm glad the club see it that way too.

Whether the coach is the one to bring these through successfully remains to be seen, but even in our 'lean' years Saints have never missed the playoffs in the GF era and I've no doubt we will still be competing given the current standard of the rest of the competition. Obviously the kind of success we have recently enjoyed will be far more difficult to attain given Wigan's improvement but we are still going to be in contention and involved in the big games for a while yet.

Competing might be good enough for the club over the next couple of years why the squad transitions but it looks a massive job to balance the squad given we have 9 players out of contract this season (excluding Dodd and Makinson) and 13 as it stands in 2025. On top of that there are the likes of Lomax, Walmsley, Percival and Clark up in 26, all of whom you would expect to retire or move on, and then longer-term we have Welsby and Delaney who already have admirers in the NRL. Some very important short and long term issues at the club right now.

what are you're views on Welsby given the current situation Saints appear to be in? He has won everything there is to win over here at a young age
Do you think he'll show some loyalty and see out this (or his next) contract in a bid to get Saints back to where the fans want them to be or do you think he'll take a chance in the NRL if it comes to him? i'm also assuming there will be some sort of release clause in his last contract

one of the things i've praised Saints with over recent years, has been the ability to know when to let a player go, and not letting them go on for a season or 2 too long. Wigan were masters at it many years ago, and appear now to be getting that little bit of the ruthless streak you need when it comes to contract negotiations. Saints appear to have slipped a little in that regards IMO, do you agree or think some of the contract extensions have been warranted and the players performed to their highest standards (i'm ignoring Roby in this conversation because of the standard / level he played at all his career)

I was resigned to losing Welsby given all the achievements you state (plus the England captaincy) and was very pleasantly surprised when he signed again. Don't think there is a clause in his contract although I stand to be corrected, I certainly hope not as most of our attacking threat is carried by him currently. He's certainly got the game to succeed over there but he's still only 23, I think it's simply a matter of if/when he chooses to go.

The contracts for 2026 I mention above, I don't think an external coach comes in and gives them out personally. Lomax, Percival and Walmsley have all spent significant time on the treatment table and I think we would be in a better position from a cap spend perspective if we had been more ruthless and kept them waiting until this point of the season before making decisions on all three. With that said I can't really speak to the succession plan as it isn't particularly clear given the contract status of most of the squad - there is every chance we have offered them longer deals on reduced terms with a view to naturally phasing them out for the likes of Robertson, Whitby, Vaughan and Stephens. Will be interesting to see how it plays out.

Wigan have a lot of players tied up long term, it looks like a smart move now given the current state of the market but the true test of that will be in another 18 months - how is the cap going to be managed if and when players fall out of favour with time left on their deals, and will it prevent the club from being able to offer good deals to the next batch of players? The short term succession plan for players looks pretty clear but Wigan have been more susceptible to NRL interest than most so even that is not without risk.