Quote ="AS108"Let’s be realistic, they are extremely slim. Cas have been comfortably beaten by every top 4 side they’ve played so far up until now. To have any chance of getting to Old Trafford they have to get a home semi or at the very least avoid Saints/Wigan. The chances of that happening are also very slim. Warrington are still a slightly above average side, your chances are extremely slim. Unless something changes Saints are big favourites right now. Of course a lot can happen between now and October.'"
I don't think it will be a Cas v Wire final but because of the playoff format now, the chances aren't as slim as you think.
Now if you were to say "Cas and Wire will finish the top 2 places in the league", the chances of THAT are extremely slim.
You're probably going to see Saints top the league, and three from Wigan, Cas, Wire and Hull in the next four positions. I wouldn't be surprised if there's a bit of a shake up between now and the end of the season and we see something like Cas 2nd, Wigan 3rd and Wire 4th. There's a risk of us being squeezed out by Hull, especially if we get to Wembley and have a couple of substandard performances around then.
But anyway, if you accept that there's a fairly good chance that Cas and Wire will both be in the top 4 then it only takes two results to make the Cas v Wire GF happen, and only one of them (Saints losing) would be a shock. Saints are the best team around but they aren't as far ahead as they were back in the era of Cunningham, Scully, Long and co. It wouldn't be a massive shock for Saints to lose a game. In the old days the playoffs were much more geared up to giving the minor premiers, or 2nd place, a better chance of making the Grand Final, but now all they get for it is a home game in a knock out where 4th place has nothing to lose and one slip means goodnight.