What's the average salary nowadays?.. £20k??

SSP is £96??... put that over a possible lockdown period of 6-7 weeks and it's inevitable households will collapse. Combine that with the inevitable that is they won't have jobs to return to because their employers will have gone under and you can see why the idea of people accepting a long term lockdown is a long shot?

you said earlier.

Perhaps I misunderstood what you said earlier. I'm saying that for 80% of the workers they will get a 'mild' infection, self isolate for a week, then return to work. I think the only 'lock downs' they are talking about are for the over 70's, and possibly restaurants, coffee shops and pubs.

The UK government in 2017 spent £217 Billion on welfare + pensioners. 28% of total public spending. Guess the facts don't fit the narrative.

Welfare spending alone has soared.



The Labour government of 1997 onwards made living on benefits a lifestyle choice.

Or savings for a rainy day, living within your means and only having children you can afford to raise yourself.

This country is going bloody soft. It's not even the worst viral outbreak in recent memory yet. As of today there is ONE confirmed case in Warrington. People need to get a bloody grip. The seasonal flu epidemic in 1989 to 1990 caused 26,000 deaths in England and Wales alone. Spanish Flu 1918 to 1919 - 200,000 UK deaths (young adults, children and elderly) Asian Flu 1957 to 1958 33,000 UK deaths (children) Hong Kong Flu 1968 to 1969 80,000 UK deaths (all ages) Swine Flu 2009 to 2010 - 457 UK deaths MERS 2012 0 UK deaths deaths Serious Acute Respiratory Syndrome 2002 to 2003 - 0 UK deaths Seasonal flu epidemic 1989 to 1990 - 26,000 deaths in England and Wales Government Statistics https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... oss-the-uk

This country is going bloody soft. It's not even the worst viral outbreak in recent memory yet. As of today there is ONE confirmed case in Warrington. People need to get a bloody grip. The seasonal flu epidemic in 1989 to 1990 caused 26,000 deaths in England and Wales alone. Spanish Flu 1918 to 1919 - 200,000 UK deaths (young adults, children and elderly) Asian Flu 1957 to 1958 33,000 UK deaths (children) Hong Kong Flu 1968 to 1969 80,000 UK deaths (all ages) Swine Flu 2009 to 2010 - 457 UK deaths MERS 2012 0 UK deaths deaths Serious Acute Respiratory Syndrome 2002 to 2003 - 0 UK deaths Seasonal flu epidemic 1989 to 1990 - 26,000 deaths in England and Wales Government Statistics https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... oss-the-uk

Quote ="Wires71"This country is going bloody soft. It's not even the worst viral outbreak in recent memory yet. As of today there is ONE confirmed case in Warrington. People need to get a bloody grip. The seasonal flu epidemic in 1989 to 1990 caused 26,000 deaths in England and Wales alone. Spanish Flu 1918 to 1919 - 200,000 UK deaths (young adults, children and elderly) Asian Flu 1957 to 1958 33,000 UK deaths (children) Hong Kong Flu 1968 to 1969 80,000 UK deaths (all ages) Swine Flu 2009 to 2010 - 457 UK deaths MERS 2012 0 UK deaths deaths Serious Acute Respiratory Syndrome 2002 to 2003 - 0 UK deaths Seasonal flu epidemic 1989 to 1990 - 26,000 deaths in England and Wales Government Statistics https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... oss-the-uk'" Some pretty scary figures there, Wires71. Imagine if we had 24 hour news, in THOSE times . Our current media were putting the fear of God into us, with ZERO UK deaths. Our printed/radio/tv/Internet media should cut down on the hyperbole, and broadcast facts/government advice and good practices, rather than click bait and scaremongry. We are entering worrying times, and we need FACT, not being told that the shelves are empty of toilet roll, pasta and baked beans. Responsible behaviour is essential from the public, AND the media

Quote ="Wires71"This country is going bloody soft. It's not even the worst viral outbreak in recent memory yet. As of today there is ONE confirmed case in Warrington. People need to get a bloody grip. The seasonal flu epidemic in 1989 to 1990 caused 26,000 deaths in England and Wales alone. Spanish Flu 1918 to 1919 - 200,000 UK deaths (young adults, children and elderly) Asian Flu 1957 to 1958 33,000 UK deaths (children) Hong Kong Flu 1968 to 1969 80,000 UK deaths (all ages) Swine Flu 2009 to 2010 - 457 UK deaths MERS 2012 0 UK deaths deaths Serious Acute Respiratory Syndrome 2002 to 2003 - 0 UK deaths Seasonal flu epidemic 1989 to 1990 - 26,000 deaths in England and Wales Government Statistics https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... oss-the-uk'" Some pretty scary figures there, Wires71. Imagine if we had 24 hour news, in THOSE times . Our current media were putting the fear of God into us, with ZERO UK deaths. Our printed/radio/tv/Internet media should cut down on the hyperbole, and broadcast facts/government advice and good practices, rather than click bait and scaremongry. We are entering worrying times, and we need FACT, not being told that the shelves are empty of toilet roll, pasta and baked beans. Responsible behaviour is essential from the public, AND the media

Completely agree. Mass hysteria stoked up by the media and perpetuated by the worried well on social media.

Public Health England now say 7.9 million people may require hospitalisation due to coronavirus. Deaths between 318,660 and 531,100. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... are_btn_tw It is completely unprecedented. Nothing like 'seasonal flu'.

Public Health England now say 7.9 million people may require hospitalisation due to coronavirus. Deaths between 318,660 and 531,100. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... are_btn_tw It is completely unprecedented. Nothing like 'seasonal flu'.

Yeah but those 400,000 dead will just be the 'spineless' so don't worry.

I thoroughly take your point, Winslade's, but again,THESE AREN'T FACTS, it's best guessing. Theres nothing to say this may peak in a week or so's time, after people have (hopefully) heeded warnings and used good practice. We don't need Whitehall civil servants grasping figures from mid air. To counter this I heard an eminent virologist saying he wouldn't hesitate to LET his young daughter go on a school skiing trip, this week
.
After all (on a totally different theme) , Mark Carney, head of the Bank of England warned the public of the dangers of voting for Brexit in 2016. When we voted to leave, ALL his immediate forecasts for the UK economy's growth were proved wrong, with subsequent independent figures. "Experts" are only experts in name.

I hope to God that this virus disappears asap, but politicians issuing "best guess" figures, only feeds the flames Don't forget (again, on another theme) for every scientific"expert" on climate change, there'll be another "expert" telling you the exact opposite . David Attenborough to David Bellamy, anyone?.

i think the season will just get cancelled.... we may have a challenge cup... but league wise, if we lose 3-4 months from the season, its done.

Which probably suits everyone.... as everyone looks bang average.

The Nostrodamos disciples have missed an opportunity here. Haven’t heard from them for a while. It’s like a Doh moment.

Quote ="sally cinnamon"Public Health England now say 7.9 million people may require hospitalisation due to coronavirus. Deaths between 318,660 and 531,100. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... are_btn_tw It is completely unprecedented. Nothing like 'seasonal flu'.'" How does this tally with China who appear to have passed the peak with nowhere near that number of deaths? Suggesting 80% of the population will contract the virus. The article makes clear this is a worst case scenario.

Quote ="sally cinnamon"Public Health England now say 7.9 million people may require hospitalisation due to coronavirus. Deaths between 318,660 and 531,100. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... are_btn_tw It is completely unprecedented. Nothing like 'seasonal flu'.'" How does this tally with China who appear to have passed the peak with nowhere near that number of deaths? Suggesting 80% of the population will contract the virus. The article makes clear this is a worst case scenario.

Quoting benefit spending in £bn/ year can never provide a true picture. For accuracy it needs to be considered alongside increases in GDP and pensioner numbers.

The estimates shared by SC are based on 80% of the population contracting the disease and then 0.6% dying. So by now we would expect a large proportion of China's population to have had the disease based on their population of 1.4 bn people. So 1.2bn cases. In the real world we see that china has ~80,000 cases and that's with a 3 months head start on the rest of the world. Source : https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020 ... rus-charts

The estimates shared by SC are based on 80% of the population contracting the disease and then 0.6% dying. So by now we would expect a large proportion of China's population to have had the disease based on their population of 1.4 bn people. So 1.2bn cases. In the real world we see that china has ~80,000 cases and that's with a 3 months head start on the rest of the world. Source : https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020 ... rus-charts

I have removed the offending word and apologise for any upset caused.

Some so called expert reckons this could last till next spring...best get to tesco for some bog roll and pasta...

The graph shows working age benefits only and excludes pensions.

Experts arent always right However, as they know more about the subject than non- experts, there is an increased possibility of them being correct.

The graph does, but the spending figure (£217bn) you quote doesnt.

Very good graphic. The media are reporting it as if it's the Bubonic plague. Yes it's nasty, yes people will die but there have always been deadly diseases.

I thought it would be interesting to look into the claim that "60% of the population will get Coronavirus". Is it it scaremongering so we change our behaviour, or perhaps just a guess ?

If we assume that we have a vaccine for the virus then how many people would we need to vaccinate in order to bring it down to a safe level ? This is a well trodden path as it's been done for years with all sorts of infectious diseases both in animals and man. The most important number is R0, the number of people that one infected individual will him/herself go on to infect. For measles its a big number at around 17 and the maths requires that you vaccinate approximately 95% of the population. The WHO figure for Coronavirus is approximately 2.5, so it's more contagious than seasonal flu but a lot less than measles.

When the fraction of people that don't have the virus is less than 1/R0 then the infection can't continue and starts to die out. So for Coronavirus 1/2.5 = 0.4, ie we need less than 40% of the population that are still not immune. Or to turn that around, we need 60% of the population to be immune (vaccinated).

But of course we don't have a vaccine. So people will continue to get infected and then return to work (immune to the virus) until more than 60% of the population has been infected.

So this big number does tie in with Merkels' claim that 60-70 % of Germans will be infected and it would also support Patrick Vallances statement " It's not possible to stop everyone getting it and it's not advisable because you wan't immunity". You could also go a little further down this line of reasoning and work out why the UK government policy is different to that for most if not all other countries.

I will just edit this post to say that these are my figures and it's purely IMO.