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| Quote ="Mrs Barista"Eh? Don't you need to have disclosure of cash equivalents (ie overdrafts) to do that properly?'"
Not at all.
If you have the balance sheet you can work out the OCF quite easily from the movements in working capital and the annual EBITDA. So long as you have the opening and closing balances for debtors, creditors and stock then you can work out what the cashflow was from normal operating activities though in some cases you'd have to have an educated guess at EBITDA due to lack of a detailed P&L.
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| Quote ="Barnacle Bill"Who said it would?
And if you exclude Saints and Hudds "in your opinion" Leeds becomes an outlier. Does that mean they're no longer a SL club suitable for inclusion in the data set 'SL clubs finacial results 2009'? What this does is reveal the nonsense of your method. As does including a loss (not confirmed) for Crusaders of £1,000,000 because then Quins are no longer an outlier using Grubbs technique.
=#0040FFWhy would I exclude Saints and Huddersfield - this has never even been countenanced, because you can see by looking at the shape each side of the median that they're about the same distance as Leeds the other way, plus they're not outliers under any methodology. You are right about Crusaders/Quins. Although you could do a subset based on geography that would exclude both Harlequins and Crusaders and give a view of heartland profitability.
But I stress, the use of Grubbs is erroneous, again you choose to ignore this because it highlights your lack of statistical rigour. Grubbs would be used to check if a result belongs in a data set i.e it is not an erroneous result from a different data set that has crept in by mistake. Unless you are arguing that it is a fundamental mistake to include Quins in the financial results of all SL clubs, which might be the case if say the results of the Union club had been used or some other error had been made. But that is not the case.
=#0040FFLook, you asked for statistical proof that Quins were not representative. I gave you the gold standard outlier test, Grubbs and it proved my point. Your comeback is that there can be no outliers anyway because you don't like the fact that the statistical test backed up my initial point. Don't change the rules of engagement because you don't like the results.
If you include Crusaders supposed loss of £1,000,000 you HAVE to include Quins by your own methodology.
=#0000FFCorrect. But we don't have the accounts yet. And since Crusaders are late with them again and are the subject of a proposal to strike off according to Companies House, we may be waiting a while.
Your hanging off Neil Hudgell's every word is not really a revelation.
=#0040FFHanging off his every word? He was in the Sun this time last year declaring "We're all in a Supersize Mess" and that [ueveryone[/u was losing £500k, around the time that Rovers filed accounts showing a loss of around £450k. It would appear that this is not the case this year, so isn't that a good thing? For the 4th time of asking, it seems a question you want to avoid. To quote your good self in your epic dialogue with Smokey TA "You may want to twist the argument away from the subjects that make you feel awkward"
'"
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| You could exclude Hudds and Saints because it makes about as much sense as excluding Quins.
I asked for a better reason to exclude Quins than "in your opinion" you invented a couple including "Look at the chart. Look at the banding of 10 clubs within the two lines showing £1m and -£1m, also +/- £1m around the median." Which proves absolutely nothing. "Look at the chart" FFS!
Then you stumbled upon Grubbs and decided it solved your problem, you don't know what it's for or how to use it correctly do you? Oh hang on I forgot!
Quote ="Mrs Barista"I do commercial finance for a living. I do it pretty well and get paid pretty well for doing it. One of the key things I look at is relative performance, whether by geography, channel, brand, category, you name it, and I define control groups on all these dimensions on a daily basis. I can tell you now that from a performance review perspective I'd be discredited if I reported a benchmark that included an outlier of this magnitude"'"
Quote ="Mrs Barista"Grubbs is my new favourite.'"
Are you seriously suggesting that Quins are not a part of the data set SL clubs? Are you saying that they do not fall within +- 3 standard deviations of the Mean? Exactly where we would expect the vast majority of clubs results to fall?
If you are, I hope your boss doesn't know your user name on here.
On average every club was losing £500K that is what an average tells us, the average result for the whole data set. There is likely no single result that exactly matches the average, some will be higher and some lower. Some may even be a lot lower but that does not mean they should not be included regardless of whose opinion it is.
On a like for like basis (i.e. not excluding any given club for spurious and statistically false reasons) if the average is less of a loss this year compared to last, then of course (bearing in mind the many ways financial results can be massaged) that is good news.
What we can't do is compare an average using a spurious and statistically incompetent method this year against an average calculated in a different way for last year.
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| Quote ="Derwent"Not at all.
If you have the balance sheet you can work out the OCF quite easily from the movements in working capital and the annual EBITDA. So long as you have the opening and closing balances for debtors, creditors and stock then you can work out what the cashflow was from normal operating activities though in some cases you'd have to have an educated guess at EBITDA due to lack of a detailed P&L.'"
Quite easy with a full set of accounts. Much harder with abbreviated accounts, especially where you have non-recurring transactions or financing activities that are not disclosed.
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| Can I suggest that BB and Mrs B retire to PM? I'm an accountant myself, yet with this war of attrition I lost the will to live about two pages back...
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| I'm doing A-level maths (which includes a module on statistics), but reading the last few pages of this thread is making me want to tear my fingernails out.
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| Quote ="Adeybull"Can I suggest that BB and Mrs B retire to PM? I'm an accountant myself, yet with this war of attrition I lost the will to live about two pages back...
'"
Fair enough.
Whilst it is good news that fewer clubs are making losses and the average loss (whichever way you calculate it ) appears to be reducing, you do have to wonder whether it's coincidence that this has happened when these are the last accounts to be filed before the next set of franchises are decided.
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| Quote ="Adeybull"Quite easy with a full set of accounts. Much harder with abbreviated accounts, especially where you have non-recurring transactions or financing activities that are not disclosed.'"
Which is why I was talking about OCF and not Net Cashflow as you wouldn't know the financing activities or capital expenditure. In my experience OCF is a pretty good indicator of a business' normal everyday performance.
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| All I'm getting from this is that you can make figures show whatever you want - which as a retired Royal Mail statisticain I knew already!
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| Quote ="Barnacle Bill"I don't understand why the owner says that the club has no debts, not even directors loans, but they still report huge losses. The money he puts in has to be classed as income of some sort (sufficient to cover the trading deficit) but they still post losses. How can this be?
'"
Quite easily. The owner could put in a few million as share capital. No debt but losses are covered.
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| Quote ="JB Down Under"is there tax reasons for posting losses rather than profits? One thing I've learned about stats and financial reports is that they can both be made to show what ever you want them to!'"
No.
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| Quote ="Adeybull"Two others:
1. Total incompetence. (again??)
2. There is some fundamental uncertainty that is preventing the accounts being signed off yet but where resolution is reasonably expected within a sensible time frame (although in such cases you should seek an extension from Companies House, who will generally grant it - not happened)
So that gives us:
1. Incompetence
2. Fundamental uncertainty
3. Something to hide
Several years running.
Wonder which one/s it is?
'"
Normally 2 amd 3 follow from 1.
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| Quote ="The Chronicler of Chiswic"All I'm getting from this is that you can make figures show whatever you want - which as a retired Royal Mail statisticain I knew already!'"
Ssssh - keeps some of us in a job.
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| Quote ="Derwent"Not at all.
If you have the balance sheet you can work out the OCF quite easily from the movements in working capital and the annual EBITDA. So long as you have the opening and closing balances for debtors, creditors and stock then you can work out what the cashflow was from normal operating activities though in some cases you'd have to have an educated guess at EBITDA due to lack of a detailed P&L.'"
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| i'm a plasterer i dont care!!!!
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| Does anyone think that chris joint should have been penalised for a voluntary tackle at the grand final.
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| Quote ="Wild Child LukeSykes83"Does anyone think that chris joint should have been penalised for a voluntary tackle at the grand final.'"
No, because he never played in a Grand Final.
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| Quote ="Dally"No, because he never played in a Grand Final.'"
Im sorry Dally but Mrs An-Count B has bored me into a stupier so i thought i'd talk about rugby league.
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| its all the drivel we get used to
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Quote ="Mrs Barista"Seems like 2009 was a marginally better year financially for some clubs. In 2008, the only club (I think) to make a profit was Hull FC. The league table of profit/loss for 2009 is as follows (assuming I've got the right entities) and shows 4 clubs in profit and a further 3 with a loss < £100k (although I'm being a bit generous with Wigan and using their pre impairment/depreciation/interest number). Leeds profit is before a hefty exceptional income of £3m from a transaction with Yorkshire CC. The average loss excluding Harlequins, which IMO distorts the underlying picture, is -£103,630.
Leeds 720,871
Warrington 159,514
Hull FC 77,141
Castleford 26,679
Salford -19,651
Wigan -40,715
Bradford -72,209
Wakefield -202,379
Huddersfield -823,739
St Helens -861,810
Harlequins -1,936,804
Average excluding Harlequins -103,630
This excludes clubs whose accounts are overdue, ie Hull KR and Crusaders.'"
www.thisishullandeastriding.co.u ... ticle.html
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Quote ="Mrs Barista"Seems like 2009 was a marginally better year financially for some clubs. In 2008, the only club (I think) to make a profit was Hull FC. The league table of profit/loss for 2009 is as follows (assuming I've got the right entities) and shows 4 clubs in profit and a further 3 with a loss < £100k (although I'm being a bit generous with Wigan and using their pre impairment/depreciation/interest number). Leeds profit is before a hefty exceptional income of £3m from a transaction with Yorkshire CC. The average loss excluding Harlequins, which IMO distorts the underlying picture, is -£103,630.
Leeds 720,871
Warrington 159,514
Hull FC 77,141
Castleford 26,679
Salford -19,651
Wigan -40,715
Bradford -72,209
Wakefield -202,379
Huddersfield -823,739
St Helens -861,810
Harlequins -1,936,804
Average excluding Harlequins -103,630
This excludes clubs whose accounts are overdue, ie Hull KR and Crusaders.'"
www.thisishullandeastriding.co.u ... ticle.html
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| Quote ="Dally"No, because he never played in a Grand Final.'"
Chris Joynt never played in a Grand Final?
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| Quote ="Billinge_Lump"Chris Joynt never played in a Grand Final?'"
Ask tb (if you want to be banned ).
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| Quote ="The Chronicler of Chiswic"Ask tb (if you want to be banned
).'"
I presumed Luke was referring to the JVT thread of legend.
What's Dally on about tb?
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| I have no idea. But then, I seldom do with him.
(apart from being a sub-tb pedant and pointing out that 'chris joint' has never played in a grand final because there's no such player)
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