Being vaguely serious for a sec, it looks like this might be the academic that Phil Clarke was talking about: [url=http://business.leeds.ac.uk/about-us/faculty-staff/member/profile/bill-gerrard/Bill Gerrard[/url. If it is an economist who's come up with the maths behind the margin meter, then it'd be no surprise if what we've got is an economist's model system that attempts to predict future performance on the basis of past performance - just like for the markets. And we know how well they work. It's like picking your fantasy team on last year's tries and appearances.

RL and markets share a feature that makes prediction difficult: they're not simple systems, and there are strong - apparently - random (in jargon: stochastic) effects. That's not to say that games are always unpredictable, though - we've all seen scorelines go exactly how we'd expect. We can pick the likely top four in the league with some confidence. You can build a pretty good fantasy team if you pick last year's kickers (as these are stable points-getters, probably more stable than try counts for a player).

Intuitively, to me, the margin meter is unlikely to be a reliable predictor early in the game - how many times have we seen a strong performance from a lower table side (or GB/England) for 60min, only for the last 20min to decide the game? You might expect there to be some sort of weighting that early events count for less than later events in the game. We might also need to take into account that there is knowledge other than that which comes from the measures Phil Clarke described in his introduction: we 'know that Australia are fitter and stronger', we 'know that Widnes lack discipline', we 'know that Wigan have good goal-line defence', 'we know James Child is refereeing' (in jargon: prior knowledge), and so on.

It doesn't help that the margin meter only reports a single number with no indication of error. "Widnes by 6, +/- 24" might be what the model is actually predicting, but we wouldn't know that from what they show.

Anyhoo - I wouldn't believe its predictions for a second, but I'd be interested to see more technical information about the maths.

Very true, though those previously bought a trophy instead of a plastic pitch

Wonder if this has really been brought in by Skybet?

I can imagine loads of people betting in play with the Margin Meter only to be bamboozled by a scoreline that goes completely against it.

Margin Meter was a success, not from the point of view of predicting the score, but in generating media attention via TWITTER.

It got people talking about the game itself and rugby league.

wonder how wrong the margin meter will be in tommorows game haha

FYP

The use of technology fot technology's sake, pointless

Its embarrassing, imagine tuning in being a first time viewer of SL and seeing that.

Presumably a cardboard one. While he alternates between muttering to himself and shouting at passers-by.

2 litre bottle of unbranded cider and smelling of urine

It was brilliant with 14 minutes left and Wakefield winning by 8. Up pops Phil with his margin thingy saying Wakefield will win by 3 points and Clarke states "it's predicting the points to flow for Wakefield now"

How the hell will anybody be able to keep a straight face in the studio tonight when pieface starts banging on about his margin meter. If I was Phil Clarkes doctor I would have him in ASAP for some tests.

Think i'll contact sky and ask for a rebate on my subscription for wasting it on that pile of tosh. How did they ever think that it was a good idea???

No doubt we'll hear "what a success it is " and how the fans are loving it.

But enough about Phil Clarke. What do you think of the margin meter?

The Margin Meter was almost as pointless as the random names appearing near the clock after every tackle

Can't see why you're all knocking the margin meter. It's half-time prediction was very close as far as the winning margin was concerned. OK, so it got the winning team wrong, but many great inventions are subject to the odd 'teething problems'. I'm confident an intellect as mighty as Clarke's will soon iron this one out.

Once he's sorted it, the RFL could adopt Margin Meter as a sort of rugby equivalent of the Duckworth-Lewis to decide the result of games abandoned at half time due to floodlight failure.

That's unfair on Hull KR, we all know the highest probability of floodlights failing is at MS3 Craven Park!!!

One thing it has detracted from is the utter tripe the main commentary team talk through the game! Clarke has fallen victim of spending too long with the duo Eddie and Stevo!

I just wish the RFL and Sky would realise those two are way past their best (if they ever had a best!). Every penalty given those two said it was for something else when the officials hand signals were clear on screen! Both are still living in the past with tactics and how the game actually works now. Defending isn't textbook at this level yet Stevo still praises a tackle around the legs. I dread to think how a team coached by him would fare in todays world of RL!

I've said before both of them need to retire with Clarke maybe given the magazine show midweek. A commentary team that are knowledgable, up to speed with all things RL and know the rules for starters is what the game needs. Less witty banter and more information about what is going on would benefit the game as a whole.

As for the contraption Margin Meter, it doesn't work, never will work and should be scrapped after last nights performance! I do hope the Dr wasn't paid for producing such a waste of time!

That's actually an instructive comparison. For D/L in cricket, you have pretty well-defined 'resources' (wickets and overs left) from which you can make a reasonable - if sometimes baffling - estimate of the runs that would have been scored, based on how the team was doing in the match. I don't think a D/L equivalent for RL is likely to be as useful, as there aren't those kinds of defined resources. A run of penalties or point-scoring can give a side a long time in possession without reply; fitness differences tell in the last 20min, etc.

Teams have just ran out, margin meter says Cas by ten thousand

First, the margin meter said a 20 point victory to cas when it was 0-0. Salford have scored, and now it says an 11 point Salford victory!

Even Eddie and Stevo are laughing at it!

31 point turnaround in 10 minutes



As said above, even those lot are laughing about it and Clarke sounded embarrassed.

700 games taken into account, how many games are played a season??

189

So it's pretty much over the last 4 years since stats have become more "relevant" in the game.