Quote ="Keith Swiftcorn"Do they really? Let's take a look at the evidence then, shall we?
Since 2001, Melbourne have finished in the Top 5 on 6 occasions out a possible 11. They've failed to qualify for the Top 8 on three occasions. The Broncos have finished in the Top 5 on 7 occasions out of a possible 11. Manly have finished in the Top 5 on 5 occasions out of a possible 11. They've failed to qualify for the Top 8 on four occasions. The Dragons have finished in the Top 5 on 5 occasions out of a possible 11. They've failed to qualify for the Top 8 on two occasions.
Since 2001, Wests have qualified for the playoffs 3 times out of a possible 11. They were serious contenders in 2005 when they won the competition and were beaten semi finalists in 2010. The Warriors have qualified for the Top 8 on 7 occasions out of 11. They were beaten Grand Finalists twice, beaten semi finalists twice and Minor Premiers once. The Roosters qualified for the Top 8 on 7 occasions out of 11 winning the competition in 2002, beaten Grand Finalists in 2003, 2004 and 2010. The Bulldogs have qualified for the Top 8 on six occasions out of a possible 11 winning the competition in 2004 and semi finalists on 3 other occasions. They all appear to be serious NRL contenders to me.
Since 2001, Newcastle qualified for the Top 8 on six occasions out of a possible 11 winning the competition in 2001. Canberra also qualified for the Top 8 on 6 out of a possible 11 occasions. Penrith have qualified for the Top 8 on 3 occasions winning the competition in 2003, minor premiers in 2003 and beaten semi finalists in 2004. Gold Coast have qualified for the Top 8 on 2 occasions out of a possible 5, beaten semi finalists in 2010. Cronulla have qualified for the Top 8 on 4 occasions out of a possible 11 and were beaten semi finalists in 2001, 2002 and 2008. Parramatta have qualified for the Top 8 on 6 occasions out of a possible 11, Minor Premiers twice, beaten Grand Finalists twice, beaten semi finalists twice. Souths have the poorest record of the lot only managing to qualify for the Top 8 once out of a possible 10.'"
So for anyone else struggling slightly with the inconsistent and unhelpful evidence, or sometimes not given(~), and lack of deductions from above here is what was stated (haven't actually checked these):
11 Seasons
Melbourne* - (Top5: 6) (Top8: 8 )
Brisbane - (Top5: 7) (Top8: ~)
Manly - (Top5: 5) (Top8: 7)
St George - (Top5: 5) (Top8: 9)
-----------------------------------
Wests - (Top5: ~) (Top8: 3)
New Zealand - (Top5: ~) (Top8: 7)
Easts/City - (Top5: ~) (Top8: 7)
Canterbury - (Top5: ~) (Top8: 6)
-----------------------------------
Newcastle - (Top5: ~) (Top8: 6)
Canberra - (Top5: ~) (Top8: 6)
Penrith - (Top5: ~) (Top8: 3)
Gold Coast** - (Top5: ~) (Top8: 2)
Cronulla - (Top5: ~) (Top8: 4)
Parramatta - (Top5: ~) (Top8: 6)
Souths** - (Top5: ~) (Top8: 1)
*Had points stripped, but along with others messed with the cap throughout. Seems fair to use league tables but on Wins etc Melbourne would have more Top 8 finishes
**Did not do 11 seasons from the data set.
And the team that was missed
~North Queensland - (Top5: ~) (Top8: 4)
So ordered from the only consistent indicator actually used, Top 8 finishes, by percentage to normalise GC/Souths, group them into 3 tiers again, see if the original guesses were fair...:
>2/3 Playoff Years
St George 82% Correct
Brisbane 82% Correct
Melbourne 73% Correct
------------
1/2<Playoff Years<2/3
Easts 64% Correct
New Zealand 64% Correct
Manly 64%
Overrated
Parramatta 55%
Underrated
Canterbury 55% Correct
Newcastle 55%
Underrated
Canberra 55%
Underrated
------------
Playoff Years<1/2
Gold Coast 40% Correct
Cronulla 36% Correct
North Queensland 36% Correct
Wests 27%
Overrated
Penrith 27% Correct
Souths 10% Correct
Seems to me that the statement was a bit too biased towards recent events rather than the time series of 11 years chosen, meaning Manly/Wests seem overrated, Parra, Newcastle and Canberra underrated they've been abysmal recently). Other wise it seems fairly spot on from general positional point of view, though remember that the 14/15/16 team competition changes do give some overestimation of teams earlier in the time series.
I'd say the groupings were reasonablyfair