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| If you do my spreadsheet (ie go through and predict every match result) you might be surprised. From memory it worked out on my predictions something like the teams in the million pound match (according to my calculations) would be on 6 or 8 points.
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Bizarrely Wakey have decided to play their home games on Saturdays. Michael Carter said 'it's so they get at least a minimum of 6 days rest, but i don't think any sides are playing their games on Fridays.
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Bizarrely Wakey have decided to play their home games on Saturdays. Michael Carter said 'it's so they get at least a minimum of 6 days rest, but i don't think any sides are playing their games on Fridays.
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| Can't wait for these. Odsal should be buzzing for these home games. It's going to be tough, but at least we have a chance.
As an aside, does anyone know when the million pound playoff match (or whatever it's called) is scheduled for? Is it the weekend straight after the Halifax game? The 3rd/4th oct?
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| Really looking forward to these now.
We have a chance to get off to a really good start. Sheffield are a good side but if we're realistic about gaining promotion then we have to beat them in round 1. No excuses. Then we face the worst SL side from the regular season away from home on TV. If we get 2 wins from 2, then our confidence should be flowing and Odsal should be bouncing for the round 3 match v Salford.
The first match is crucial though. If we lose to Sheffield then I think it will be hard to recover from there. We have to treat every game as it's the most important game, as if we treat sides lightly, we'll get a nasty shock. Having said that, with our full team out, I'm confident we'll turn Sheffield over.
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| I really like the idea of these play-offs. They offer a great ending to the season. As far as not being on a level playing regarding the cap - that is true but I also don't believe Leigh and us have stayed within the cap. We have 32 players all within 1m. I don't think so!
Whatever people think of this system I expect everyone is eagerly looking forward to the next two month.
8 points might pinch 3rd with good points difference.
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| By the way FA, the Salford game is at home.
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| Quote ="BullCharge"Really looking forward to these now.
We have a chance to get off to a really good start. Sheffield are a good side but if we're realistic about gaining promotion then we have to beat them in round 1. No excuses. Then we face the worst SL side from the regular season away from home on TV. If we get 2 wins from 2, then our confidence should be flowing and Odsal should be bouncing for the round 3 match v Salford.
The first match is crucial though. If we lose to Sheffield then I think it will be hard to recover from there. We have to treat every game as it's the most important game, as if we treat sides lightly, we'll get a nasty shock. Having said that, with our full team out, I'm confident we'll turn Sheffield over.'"
As long as we play for longer than 20 minutes, we'll turn Sheffield over
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| Looking at the fixture link I'd say the Sky fixtures are TBC for rounds 5, 6 & 7 - would make sense too as the table might be quite different to what people expect!
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| Quote ="woolly07"I really like the idea of these play-offs. They offer a great ending to the season. As far as not being on a level playing regarding the cap - that is true but I also don't believe Leigh and us have stayed within the cap. We have 32 players all within 1m. I don't think so!
'"
Can you imagine the consequences of that being true?
I'm not certain that our division is covered by the same 'live' cap monitoring that we were used to in SL, but I can't even begin to imagine that we, or Leigh, been so slack as to have gone over. It doesn't bear thinking about - first sanction would certainly be losing any chance of promotion.
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| Quote ="Bulliac"Can you imagine the consequences of that being true?
I'm not certain that our division is covered by the same 'live' cap monitoring that we were used to in SL, but I can't even begin to imagine that we, or Leigh, been so slack as to have gone over. It doesn't bear thinking about - first sanction would certainly be losing any chance of promotion.'"
Didn't we have a load of dual reg? And we are running a smaller squad next year due to the fact we won't be doing it next season?!
Surely we wouldn't be caught out again....
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| Quote ="Bulliac"Can you imagine the consequences of that being true?
I'm not certain that our division is covered by the same 'live' cap monitoring that we were used to in SL, but I can't even begin to imagine that we, or Leigh, been so slack as to have gone over. It doesn't bear thinking about - first sanction would certainly be losing any chance of promotion.'"
Neither can I. The fact we have not chased so called "Bigger Names" is out of being financially competent. As with Hocke our club said it would be "prohibitive" to consider his services.
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| Ferres is an experienced operator, I'd be very surprised if he had cocked up on such a crucial matter.
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| Quote ="Wigan Bull"Looking at the fixture link I'd say the Sky fixtures are TBC for rounds 5, 6 & 7 - would make sense too as the table might be quite different to what people expect!'"
Depending on results I reckon it will be Wakey v Widnes in round 5 and Leigh v Bulls in round 6
Is there any minimum notice period for clubs to re-arrange fixtures? Can Sky wait until after eg round 4 has been completed before announcing the round 5 televised fixture?
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| I can see 8pts from those games which I think is a must higher is a bonus, will be very tight, I'd like to see what happens to Leigh full of confidence and the who is big after bearing Salford and wakey plus us but is all very different know and if they lose their first to games which is possible it might knock the stuffing put of them.
Eagles and Halifax may pick up a couple of points by beating each other but can see them above the bottom 2 I'd like to be proven wrong and any points they pick up is good for us asking as its not against us of course
Kr and Widnes are obviously favourites and depending on what is happening with Salford and wakey they might be struggling or looking for a thumping, some talk on the reds board that they might not see out the season but lets play that by ear.
I'm excited bout this by very nervous if we aren't in form and can easily see. Us struggling . But I'm gonna bite it and put £100 on is to get promoted lets see what happens.
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| Quote ="Bully_Boxer"Ferres is an experienced operator, I'd be very surprised if he had cocked up on such a crucial matter.'"
Agreed. I think he has used the RFL rules & regulations on salary cap control to the maximum.
As I understand it, a player needs to have played a competitive game for us in the season for his salary to count. (I don't know if this is the meaning of players being registered/not registered - but seems likely)
There are a few players who are on our books but don't count under the cap then with that.
Loaning people out helps as well.
And any new recruits in the last 2weeks, are only counting for 3 months or so of the "cap year" as contracts finish at the beginning of preseason generally.
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| It's not easy having a bet to just be promoted. Only ones I have found are Sky Bet and that is a miserly 5/2 (and 13/10 with Paddy Power. That would be bad enough except we are 6TH FAVOURITES at that price!!
Sky Bet odds for promotion
=#BF0000Hull KR 1/25
Widnes 1/12
Salford 1/6
Wakefield 8/15
Leigh 1/1
Bradford 5/2
Sheffield 16/1
Halifax 25/1
Paddy Power has
=#BF0000Hull Kingston Rovers 1/8
Widnes Vikings 1/6
Salford Red Devils 3/10
Wakefield Wildcats 8/13
Leigh Centurions 8/13
Bradford Bulls 13/10
Sheffield Eagles 15/2
Halifax 11/1
I'm particularly loving it how Paddy Power has FIVE teams odds-on to get promoted!
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| Happy enough with way fixtures have worked out. Good opportunity to put points on board early before a tough Middle period followed by a winnable couple to end.
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| Widnes stand out at 1/3 for the top 3 with Skybet. They're a stable club with 4 home games. They haven't conceded 40 points in a game all year and if Brown is back I can see them topping the table.
If our price was based on form so far, you'd say it was very skinny. However, with the new guys we've brought in and Gaskell, Mullaney and to a lesser extent Siejka to come back I'd say 5/2 stands favourably against Leigh at levels and Wakey at 8/15 which looks ridiculous.
I think Salford will get by as they have enough senior pros who will pull the squad together. Hull KR have looked like they don't have enough players all year and it remains to be seen what emerges from a CC semi with Wire. With Leigh first up that looks a huge game for both sides.
Fax and Sheff will start well and I don't think it's an advantage to play Sheff first up. Fax have two killer ties to start with which is a shame for them.
Gonna be brutal on the finger nails! COYB
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| Do people expect it to be as clear cut as the bookies think?
I don't think there is a gulf between the division as those odds would seem to suggest.....?!
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| If you analyse it a little, if I multiply the odds of the 4 SL clubs each being promoted, it totals up as Evens.
Looked at that way, it means the bookies think it is as likely that one will drop as it is that all four will stay up.
One of them will almost certainly be in the playoff game, whatever they do, so I suppose as a SL group, evens is about right.
If a Championship club gets the miracle of automatic promotion then that can only be Leigh, and if they don't then they will certainly be in the playoff, so Evens sounds about right to me.
Thinking about it, I don't think the overall picture of the odds is showing a huge gulf at all, it is reflecting that there is a very real chance that Leigh will oust a SL team and at the start of the season, I would not have said that would be an even money shot. But with the demise of Wakey and Salford it is at least genuinely on the cards.
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| Quote ="Wigan Bull"Do people expect it to be as clear cut as the bookies think?
I don't think there is a gulf between the division as those odds would seem to suggest.....?!'"
Player for player I think Leigh are a tad stronger than Wakey, we're 5-10 points weaker.
The first two games are incredibly important. Its entirely plausible that Leigh could lose both of their opening games or win them both.
Having said that, I'm hoping that Salford beat both Wakey and Leigh before collapsing.
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| Can anyone clarify where the "million pound" game is played?? Neutral ground or higher placed finished at home?
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| Quote ="melly88"Can anyone clarify where the "million pound" game is played?? Neutral ground or higher placed finished at home?'"
At the home of the 4th placed team.
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