You're confusion is in not taking into account the different probabilities of certain results occuring.

You're assuming that it must be better for there to be a large number of teams that we have a mathematical chance of overtaking, however small that possibility is. I'd say its better for there to be a smaller number of teams, but with a higher probability that we can overtake them

The likelihood of Cas losing at home to Celtic is minimal. There is a much greater likelihood of Quins losing to Cas and beating Wire than there is of Cas losing to Celtic.

If, as seems possible, we fail to qualify by one point, there will be an awful lot of "what if" debates. Early in the season it was argued that we should take encouragement from the closeness of some of our defeats. Now that seems to have been a major achilles heel.

Some Super League stats...

Wakey have only ever won once in France
Rovers have never beaten Wire in Hull
Cas have won on six of their last seven visits to London

MOTWYW

YOU are Statto and I claim my £5

Hope springs eternal!

Hmm - I reckon that the chances of the 'out of our hands' bit coming off are

Wakey beat Catalans - 4/10

HKR beat Wire - 7/10

Cas beat Quins - 5/10

Saints beat Catalans - 8/10 (weakened side?)

=112/1000

+

Wakey beat Catalans - 4/10

Wire beat HKR - 3/10

Cas beat Quins - 5/10

Saints (weakened side?) beat Catalans - 8/10

Quins beat Wire 2/10

= 96/10000

+

Wakey beat Catalans - 4/10

HKR beat Wire - 7/10

Quins beat Cas - 5/10

Saints (weakened side?) beat Catalans - 8/10

Wire beat Quins = 8/10

= 896/10000

And those three add up to a 2112/10000 chance - slightly better than 1 in 5.

Now, who was calling me a statto?

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I don't understand that. Why do you have to add them all up?

Within each scenario, you multiply the odds for each game. Then you add the three scenarios to find the total probability. Quite possible there's a snafu in and amongst though.

But only one of the scenarios could possibly happen right? So the probability of them all happening is nil. Surely?

This is when I wish I'd paid more attention in maths!

Not a SL stat, but Rover did beat Wolves in the CC in Hull.

Any of the three would do us, so you add them. Same as if you need a face card, you could add the chance of a jack to that of a queen and that of a king. 4/52+4/52+4/52= 12/52 = 3/13. Which I reckon is slighly more likely than those results falling for us, fwiw.

Ok, I see. I think.

1 in 5. That's not too bad then.

If we sneak in and finish 8th, who will we play?

Who ever finish's 5th away.

Can we finish 7th, if so then who will we play?

If Cas lose to London AND Celtic then yes you can.

If we finished 8th we'd most probably have Wigan away again. Not been the best for us really, well the Hobart wasn't bad

Don't be getting greedy now...

I think I get it now, coz if Quins lose(and Wolves), and we win, that moves us into 9th.

Then we only need a Catalans lose at Saints to nip into 8th, am I correct now?

Quite a serious question - not a troll this. Would people rather get into the 8 by the skin of your teeth for this season and then be satusfied with a win in the playoffs followed by exit (probably the most likely scenario although if you're in it you can win it), or, would it be better NOT to qualify and perhaps see a change on the coaching front?

As I say, not a troll, because had Leeds done a tad better under Darryl Powell (e.g. if we'd managed to win the CC against you lot), Tony Smith would never have been brought in etc etc. Which in retrospect would have been a disaster, because despite what some - very odd - Leeds fans say, there was never ever a real sense of becoming a truly good team under Powell.

I guess its just that finishing 8th should in reality be hugely disappointing for the Bulls shouldn't it? And from what I gather you've put in some dreadful displays at times.

Or doesn't it matter because McNamara will stay regardless?

I think that's about the size of it. But there is no doubt that not making the play offs will be a massive, MASSIVE FAILURE for the Bulls.It will be interesting what positive spin the club put on it, as they have already publicly stated that making the playoffs is a minimum expectation.

If we finish either 8th or 9th the season to this point has been a massive underacheivement with some terrible decisions and play, mixed with a few good moments/games.

If we sneak into the playoffs then the mimimum requirement will have been met, and like you say, from that point, if you're in it you can win it, especially with some momemtum. And if we won the Grand Final or got close then I would be satisfied (understatement of the year that maybe?). But I suspect we wont get close (I still suspect we wont get in the playoffs, Im just hoping we take it to the last week so we dont have a dead game) But a good run during Aug/Sept cant hide the many many utterly unacceptable performances we suffered from Feb-Aug.

Your bottom line is the truth though, finish 8th or 9th McNamara is our coach for 2010 if people like it or not. The only coaching changes might be to the assistants. I've not once called for him to go, but I can understand why many did/do call for it.

For 2010 we just need to hope he improves some of his weaker areas, that his junior programme is the answer and continues to produce prospects like Whitehead and Donaldson, and that his recruitment this off season fixes some of gaps in our squad, we have seen the potential a few times this year, but it needs to be more consistant.

We all hope that, yet we all know that Deacon will still be here, being picked regardless of form.

I meant in his coaching and tactics, but yes, the half backs are what I meant when I said the off season signings need to fill the gaps in our squad, I.E. we need a new half back, (I'd like 2 but thats not gonna happen)

I think looking at the teams around us in the leagues' form that we have a good chance of scraping it.

Come on you Bulls