Why exactly is 5th better than 4th? We'll have to go to Wigan away most likely.....but we'd have to do that from 5th probably anyway too like last year.

I would'nt pick Watkins this week tbh give him a full weeks training and then again next week before putting him in against Wire.
I don't think keinhorst has done too badly at all and although with so many injuries Widnes away may prove a more difficult game than it should we shouldn't rush him back.

Neither 4th or 5th are very good propositions, the way the league is shaping up.

Either way we're going to have to go somewhere tough (most likely Wigan), we've done it before, we can do it again. Some people on here have talked about wanting to avoid Wigan (we realistically can't if we're going to win the trophy), but, and they may not admit it, I would guess Wigan fans are hoping to avoid us more after what we've done the last 2 years to the League Leaders.....in fact all the other 7 teams will want to avoid us and hope that someone else can knock us out. The players of the other teams too, come the week of a potential playoff game vs Leeds will find it very hard to block out and not think about what we've done in previous years.

Pessimistic you lot, and yet I've been accused of that previously.

Still think we will get 2nd personally. We will finish above Huddersfield. 4th is already a given, so just Wire to be concerned about.

Would have Watkins back as soon as, yet I want players rested and others chances. I say this as we have no back up. Keinhorst simply is not good enough. Minns looked better on Sunday playing in the centres though, but Watkins is very hard to backup.

I will be pleasantly surprised if we make second spot, to do the grand final again is a tall order, entirely due to our injury list. Obviously with our top boys back we can beat anybody on a one off game.
Looking at last nights Wigan Wire match its going to be a huge task, I thought Wigan would not progress under wane, at the moment it looks like I may be proven wrong. Some of the Wigan passing is superb although I suspect it's probably the Harris hand at the tiller. As for wire they looked good, but the most impressive part of the game was the intensity. Both sides look miles ahead of the rest of the pack, and that includes the giants. They are a good side but most of the time it's brough inspired.
My main concern is once our main players are back, will the remaining matches be sufficient for them to regain full match fitness . It's going to be a very interesting end of season.

The current format is flawed - why would anyone want to finish 4th over 5th?

I would much much rather enter the mini tournament with a home-tie against a team who will have lost more than they won over the regular rounds while knowing with absolute certainty that the serious stuff starts now, win at all costs - no complacency, no second chances, lose and it's season over.

I really don't care who we face in the playoffs and judging by the last 2 years neither do the players, I say go to Wigan, beat them then a home tie away from the GF.

Leeds Playoff Record
2012 - beat LLS winners
2011 - beat LLS winners
2010 - beat LLS winners
2009 - Leeds LLS....beat 2nd place team
2008 - beat LLS winners
2007 - beat LLS winners
2006 - elimated 1st week vs Wire
2005 - beat LLS winners
2004 - Leeds LLS....beat 2nd place team

In 6 of the last 9 years we've beaten the LLS winners in the playoffs (4 times at opposition ground) whilst twice as LLS winners we've beaten the next highest ranked team. So that's 8 times in 9 seasons we've won playoff games vs the most (or 2nd most) consistant team in the competition.

It takes a great deal of positive thinking (or an awful lot of psychedelic drugs) to see Leeds finishing ahead of either Warrington or Huddersfield at the end of the regular season.

Or for that matter going to Wigan, Warrington or Huddersfield in the playoffs and coming away with the win.

Keinhorst has done a reasonable job really and is way ahead of Minns. After the Castleford game I would have thought him and Hall would have been kept as a partnership as he worked well off Hall, knowing exactly where he had to be to get the off loads back insidefrom the kicks..is not just luck to be there. Widnes..yes a bit off the pace, but he had a bug for 2/3 days before that game so can understand why. Looked solid v giants and the more he plays the better he'll be.

See him as a player similar to ablett when he first came through, nothing too flash but high work rate and great attitude. Ablett turned out alight, think Keinhorst will too.

Would keep Watkins side lined this week for a longer rest, Moon back in for Minns backs wise.

Of course you are Jimmy

Under this present flawed format the 1 V 4 fixture in week one has resulted in the following results:

2009 Leeds 44 - 8 Hull KR
2010 Wigan 26 - 27 Leeds
2011 Warrington 47 - 0 Huddersfield
2012 Wigan 46 - 6 Les Catalans

All fourth placed finishers seasons ended with their next match (all with home advantage), including the sole week one winner - Leeds. The other three never made it into the 'semis' which a fourth placed finish should equate to.

Perhaps year five will be different - then again ......

Possibly, Leeds are the only team to finish 1st under this format and win the GF without
losing a playoff game. They're also the reason why the last 3 LLS winners haven't matched that. And they're also the only 4th place team to win that opening game against 1st..........oh I forgot its the flawed format and not possibly the teams.......balllllllance

I agree i think finishing above those three now is very unlikely.

Regards going to those three teams in the play offs, what we have all learnt these past few seasons is that this team is fully focused on raising the intensity to the required levels at that time of year and cope with it much better than anyone in the league. I think we have competed well on the whole in the big games this year,certainly more than the last two, to be optimistic enough to think we can match all three. Even away from home when the time comes.The key of course will be what squad we have available to us at that time.We should hopefully have all our big names back by then (Mcguire, and possibly JJB apart).

We are still very much in the hunt to win SL again IMO.

Leeds remain the confounding variable in this though don't they?

In 2010 they became the only 4th placed finisher to actually win the 1 v 4 match.

In 2011 and 2012 I believe Leeds were the nemesis of both the losers and winners of those matches.

Which makes it hard to separate the format effect from the fact that Leeds consistently produce results which defy that format.

One could argue that this is a problem with using statistics to demonstrate things, but actually no qualified statistician would base conclusions on confounded variables anyway.

Pretty much all (not quite all) the evidence in favour of 5th being a kinder draw than 4th is based on Leeds' results.

Explain to me why it isn't the regular season placings that are flawed. After all, they're a pretty weak indicator of which teams are in the best form at the season's end. Have the teams that finished fourth in the seasons to which you refer been teams "on the up"? Or have they been teams sliding downwards having garnered the bulk of their points early & mid-season rather than at the end. (I don't know the answer, btw, just a gut feeling that top 3 are, more often than not, pretty consistent throughout whereas teams below that generally aren't).

Given that Leeds have finished 5th for 50% of this current flawed (IMO) format some of the evidence comparing the records of teams finishing 4th and 5th will relate to Leeds but some of it doesn't.

If Leeds are to be regarded as 'the' Play-Off specialists perhaps they need to win it from 4th and it looks like this year they may well get another opportunity.

I'd prefer a 5th placed finish for the reasons given on the previous page.

Why? Leeds may well have a few players back after a decent rest. We've been to all those grounds in the past and won in the play offs. There's still a lot of rugby to be played yet and we're in a better position than we were this time last season.

I love that somehow playing a Hull or Wakey at home the first week of playoffs is the apparent catalyst for guaranteed Grand Final success. Award winning logic on show again on RLFans.

You oft repeat this sentiment in these regular discussions but have never said what it is based on?

Can you point to one post or one poster that says finishing 5th is the optimum place to be?

The only argument I've ever offered or seen advanced re the current flawed play-off format is that finishing 5th is preferable to finishing 4th.

__________


Under the current top 8 system:

The team finishing 4th has won one from a total of eight fixtures - 13% (the lowest of any of the top eight placings)

The team finishing 5th has won ten from twelve fixtures - 83% (the highest of any of the top eight placings)

I'd rather finish 5th - play straight forward knock-out football starting with a guaranteed home fixture to build or maintain form rather than the prospect in 4th of an a[irs[/ie kicking away at the league leaders.

Some will probably now come along and start excluding the results of one particular team - despite my opinion on the format as expressed on the previous page and again in the sentence above not being based on the actual results.

Yep you're right



Not saying Keinhorst won't be side lined again when Watkins back, but he'll come on a lot better given odd runs in the team 3/4/5 games not an odd game here and odd game there, does no-one any good.

Anyway each to their own Gotcha.

Agreed, and I think this makes sense with all the younger / new players that come into a team, the best situation is that they get 3/4 games at once rather than the odd one here and there. Take Sutcliffe for example.....very poor versus Widness on the defence, enough to warrant being dropped if others were fit but he bonuced back v Giants and picked up a couple of tries, defence looked better, obviously highlighted and worked on in training. Dropping back to U19s he wouldn't have had the same need to focus on it

While I would like us to finish as high as possible I can certainly see the logic of finishing 5th over 4th.
In 5th there is a opportunity to build and improve gradually to win, where finishing 4th and losing the first game you go into a must win game with no momentum. Starting off against lesser teams you can gradually build the momentum

Ah the expected moment tvoc tries to gain the upper hand in a debate by unrealistically asking me or someone else to trawl through loads of threads to find quotes. So are you trying to say nobody in the last 2 years have said getting a comfortable home game is the way to start your playoff run? Because you pretty much say it yourself below.


Joint lowest, 7th has the same record.



Some people will come and point out the results of one team.....thats because it massively changes the results, as a guy who likes stats I'm surprised as your desire to downplay them......why could that be hmmmmm!

Just for balance of course

1st Place
LEEDS P3 W3 L0 = 100%
OTHERS P7 W4 L3 = 57% (all 3 defeats against Leeds)

4th Place
LEEDS P2 W1 L1 = 50%
OTHERS P6 W0 L6 = 0% (3 of the defeats against Leeds)

5th Place
LEEDS P8 W8 L0 = 100% (3 wins against teams placed in the top 2)
OTHERS P4 W2 L2 = 50% (1 win against 3rd and against 8th, also the two placing responsible for the defeats)

Total
LEEDS P13 W12 L1 = 92% (7 of those victories against teams placed an average of 2.7 positions above them)
OTHERS P17 W6 L11 = 35% (7 of those defeats against teams placed an average of 2.8 lower than them)

It's still the format though honest!!!

Leeds don't need momentum.

Look at 2008. Totally thrashed away at saints, then a week later a must win game against a team on a winning run.