I have often questioned the logic in Leeds kicking penalties / dropping goals late on in close tense games, but yet the goons on Sky have never mentioned the potential downside of doing so, so I was wondering if anyone else thinks along similar lines?
Tonight, when Sinfield kicked the penalty late on it changed the scoreline from an 8 point advantage 10 points. Game wise, it changes little - Warrington still need to score twice to win. Granted, they would have to kick both goals instead of just one had the difference remained at 8 points, but I still think it's taking a risk. At the time we were deep in their territory and were controlling possession and field position. In that situation, if we turn down the kick at goal and keep the ball, various options are available: A try to put the game beyond doubt, potentially at least one repeat set if we can force a drop out, or the worst case scenario, Warrington get the ball on their own line with 100 yards to go and at least the same amount of time taken out of the game that the penalty would have done.
Instead, by taking the two, we hand the initiative back to the opposition. By taking a short kick off (which they're pretty much 100% guaranteed to do) we run the risk of them getting posession 40 yards away from our line, 60 yards further up the pitch than they would have been and momentum now back with them. Now, many will no doubt say that in such positions you have to back yourself from a short kick off and close the game out from there. Without doubt I'm thinking negatively by being wary of this, but I base this on Leeds probably being 50/50 at best from short kick offs - in fact I've seen Leeds lose possession far more than gain it - or it certainly seems that way anyway (the Catalans game being an exception) - I'm sure TVOC will pop up with stats to disprove my claim, but that's my gut feeling anyway
As it turned out, Warrington did indeed get the ball back from the short kick off, and had an opportunity to score a try which would have put them either 4 or 6 behind with a few minutes still to go. Obviously, they missed their chance and by the time they did score it was too late, but I'm just throwing it out there
Another example was in one of the GF's against Saints (2009 I think...) we drop a goal with a few minutes to go which does nothing to change the overall match situation score wise, but hands field position over to Saints when we could have spent a few more minutes down at their end. From the short kick off they very nearly retain possession, and from there the game could have changed dramatically. I think something similar may have happened in the most recent GF against Warrington...
So what would you do? Take the two and risk losing possession and field position from the short kick off, or retain possession and try and keep the ball as far away from our own line as possible for the remainder of the game? Naturally, if there's only 1 score difference, and taking the two changes this to two scores it's a no brainer, but when the penalty changes little score wise, I'm just not sure...
As it turned out, Warrington did indeed get the ball back from the short kick off, and had an opportunity to score a try which would have put them either 4 or 6 behind with a few minutes still to go. Obviously, they missed their chance and by the time they did score it was too late, but I'm just throwing it out there 
