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| Quote ="Mintball"I'd love you to point to any post – mine included – where anyone has suggested that there is no deficit and that it is not rather large (and growing).
Feel free.
Off you go.
We'll wait. But I doubt any of us will hold our breath.
'"
Oh goody, so you are not denying that Labour left a large deficit when they left office?
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| Quote ="Ajw71"Oh goody, so you are not denying that Labour left a large deficit when they left office?'"
No.
I am pointing out the FACT that Labour's own policies and actions did not cause that deficit – except insofar as they continued the core economic policies of Margaret Thatcher and John Major.
Anyway, I wouldn't want to get in the way of your search for that evidence or see you trying to move the goalposts. So off you go ...
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| Quote ="Mintball"No.
I am pointing out the FACT that Labour's own policies and actions did not cause that deficit – except insofar as they continued the core economic policies of Margaret Thatcher and John Major.
Anyway, I wouldn't want to get in the way of your search for that evidence or see you trying to move the goalposts. So off you go ...'"
But the deficit would not have been as great if Labour had not inexpeicably build up a significant deficit in the 'boom' years. Spend Spend Spend.
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| Quote ="Ajw71"But the deficit would not have been as great if Labour had not inexpeicably build up a significant deficit in the 'boom' years. Spend Spend Spend.'"
Do you know the NHS ?
Thats the NHS that David Cameron swore to us voters, or plebs as his party members prefer to refer to us as, that was safe in his hands, thats the NHS that most voters of every political persuasion are so proud of and determined not to be undermined by any political party - hence the reason why all political parties spend millions on billboard advertising for , informing us that they won't touch the NHS and its safe in their hands.
That NHS ?
It was fooked when Labour came to government.
You'll be too young to remember that though.
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| Quote ="JerryChicken"Do you know the NHS ?
Thats the NHS that David Cameron swore to us voters, or plebs as his party members prefer to refer to us as, that was safe in his hands, thats the NHS that most voters of every political persuasion are so proud of and determined not to be undermined by any political party - hence the reason why all political parties spend millions on billboard advertising for , informing us that they won't touch the NHS and its safe in their hands.
That NHS ?
It was fooked when Labour came to government.
You'll be too young to remember that though.'"
Thanks for this, but how is it relevant to why Labour ran up a deficit in boom years?
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| Quote ="Ajw71"Thanks for this, but how is it relevant to why Labour ran up a deficit in boom years?'"
How do you think improvements to the health service and education were going to be paid - magic beans?
After almost two decades of wilful neglect by the tories, drastic action and huge spending was required. This was at a time that we were also prosecuting two wars. All of these things needed to be paid for, or would you rather we left children to be taught in overcrowded Portakabins or the sick and dying to be left to fester in their own filth, on trolleys parked in hospita corridors?
We could have kept out of the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan I suppose but your beloved tories wanted to see us at the forefront
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| Quote ="cod'ead" drastic action and huge spending was required'"
The sort of huge spending that saw Labour run a surplus in 1998, 1999, 2000 and 2001....
Funny that.
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| Quote ="Ajw71"The sort of huge spending that saw Labour run a surplus in 1998, 1999, 2000 and 2001....
Funny that.'"
Hilarious, your point being?
Before answering, just think what happened on 11 September 2001 and what then followed it
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| Quote ="cod'ead"Hilarious, your point being?
'"
It's not hard. You just stated that the NHS was in a mess when Labour came to office and required 'huge spending'.
Obviously not huge enough to avoid running at a surplus for their first full four years in office.
It may be hilarious for you, but that little statement you made has been comprehensively torn to shreds.
You will now probably turn to personal abuse, to try and save face.
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| Quote ="Ajw71"It's not hard. You just stated that the NHS was in a mess when Labour came to office and required 'huge spending'.
Obviously not huge enough to avoid running at a surplus for their first full four years in office.
It may be hilarious for you, but that little statement you made has been comprehensively torn to shreds.
You will now probably turn to personal abuse, to try and save face.'"
Before Labour took office, the NHS was in a state where the media quite regularly splashed on stories of elderly people dying on trolleys in hospital corridors.
MRSA and c-diff infections had soared, after the numbers of cleaners had been halved in the name of profit. Because, as you know, profit is much more important than human beings.
Schools were leaking (plenty of people on this forum remember the conditions that their own children were being educated in – and have commented on it more than once).
This required action.
In many ways, it was what constituted 'the third way', since Labour had ditched Cluase 4 and continued down the same path economically that had been started by Margaret Thatcher and continued under John Major.
When the financial crisis occurred in 2008, it was not a result of public spending, but of the appalling and irresponsibly behaviour of banks on a global basis.
And before the crisis, and the bailing out of the banks, the deficit was actually less (albeit by a small amount) than the level when Labour took office – but with schools and the health service in considerably better condition.
Labour, while very happy to allow people to believe that it had spent record levels on public services had, in reality, done no such thing (see Prof Colin Talbot, Manchester University, for full data on public spending over the last 200 years).
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| Quote ="Ajw71"It's not hard. You just stated that the NHS was in a mess when Labour came to office and required 'huge spending'.
Obviously not huge enough to avoid running at a surplus for their first full four years in office.
It may be hilarious for you, but that little statement you made has been comprehensively torn to shreds.
You will now probably turn to personal abuse, to try and save face.'"
No it hasn't, all it's done is prove you haven't a clue what you're on about. It was Labours 2nd term where they really invested in the NHS, not the first term.
In 2007 the deficit was £37.2bn (2011-12 prices). The deficit Labour inherited was £37.5bn (2011-12 prices).
In 2007 the debt was roughly half what it is now.
I wonder what happened in 2008.
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| Quote ="Ajw71"It's not hard. You just stated that the NHS was in a mess when Labour came to office and required 'huge spending'.
Obviously not huge enough to avoid running at a surplus for their first full four years in office.
It may be hilarious for you, but that little statement you made has been comprehensively torn to shreds.
You will now probably turn to personal abuse, to try and save face.'"
"Torn to shreds"?
Don't make me laugh, silly lad
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| Quote ="Him"No it hasn't, all it's done is prove you haven't a clue what you're on about. It was Labours 2nd term where they really invested in the NHS, not the first term.
In 2007 the deficit was £37.2bn (2011-12 prices). The deficit Labour inherited was £37.5bn (2011-12 prices).
In 2007 the debt was roughly half what it is now.
I wonder what happened in 2008.'"
Wasn't there a bust in 2008?
Oh but I thought Gordon ended boom and bust?
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| Quote ="Ajw71"Wasn't there a bust in 2008?
Oh but I thought Gordon ended boom and bust?'"
FFS Tony Nicklinson could've presented a more intelligent and coherent argument
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| Quote ="cod'ead"FFS Tony Nicklinson could've presented a more intelligent and coherent argument'"
Classy....
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| Quote ="Ajw71"Thanks for this, but how is it relevant to why Labour ran up a deficit in boom years?'"
I think others have explained it perfectly well, lets not go around in circles, you either want to listen and learn or you swallow the propaganda that others are quite apparently feeding you, the choice is yours.
Where did you get fed all of this stuff from anyway ?
You're not Cecil Parkinsons "love child" are you ?
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| Quote ="Ajw71"Classy....'"
And factually correct
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You can see the annual deficit figures in the Treasury pocket databank www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/d/pdb.pdf
Look at the table on the bottom half of p14. The key columns to note are the second (net borrowing) and fourth (net public sector debt) as a percentage of GDP. The net borrowing column is actually given as net surplus, so deficits have a minus sign.
As you will see the figures in John Major's government were:
1991/92 -2.9%
1992/93 -6.4%
1993/94 -7.7%
1994/95 -6.5%
1995/96 -5.2%
1996/97 -3.7%
In Tony Blair's government:
1997/98 -1.9%
1998/99 +0.1%
1999/00 +1.3%
2000/01 +3.9%
2001/02 +0.7%
2002/03 -1.8%
2003/04 -3.0%
2004/05 -3.1%
2005/06 -3.3%
2006/07 -2.4%
In Gordon Brown's government:
2007/08 -2.5%
2008/09 -4.9%
2009/10 -10.9%
In David Cameron's government:
2010/11 -9.9%
2011/12 -8.1%
The spike in deficit is driven by what happened between 2008 and 2010, ie the financial crisis. The deficits being run under the last Conservative government were much higher than what was being run by the Labour government up to the crisis, the deficit going into the financial crisis in 2008 was 2.5% of GDP compared to a deficit of 3.7% that they had inherited in 1997. For 7 of the 13 years Labour were in office they ran either surpluses or smaller deficits than at any time during John Major's government.
The idea that is pushed by the Tories that "Labour spent too much leading up to the crisis" just does not add up. Their spending levels were much more sustainable than the spending levels of the last Conservative government. It is true that Labour spent much more on public services, because the Conservatives high deficit levels were not because of high spending on public services but because unemployment was so high then, so they had fewer people contributing tax and more people claiming benefits. The Conservatives were paying for a high bill of social failure. When Labour came in and unemployment fell (despite bringing in the minimum wage) the public finances got much better.
The same would happen if we returned to a growing economy now and got back on top of unemployment. The deficit melts away when you approach full employment. When you have high unemployment you will always have a deficit no matter how much 'austerity' you have, we had 17 years of Tory austerity and cuts and we were still running high deficits in their final years in office!
One more point of interest, George Osborne's Fiscal Mandate is that by 2015 the "current budget" should be in balance. The current budget is the left hand column in that table. This is where you disregard anything classed as "investment spending", eg when the government builds a hospital that counts as investment spend, when it pays doctors and nurses that counts as current spend. The Office for Budget Responsibility are going to release figures soon that are expected to say they forecast he will miss that target. However we were pretty much on that target in 2007/08, the current budget was in deficit of just 0.7% of GDP, rising to 7.2% by 2010 due to the financial crisis. So again this idea that we were spending unsustainably leading up to the financial crisis does not add up, Osborne would love to have a current budget deficit of 0.7% by 2015.
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You can see the annual deficit figures in the Treasury pocket databank www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/d/pdb.pdf
Look at the table on the bottom half of p14. The key columns to note are the second (net borrowing) and fourth (net public sector debt) as a percentage of GDP. The net borrowing column is actually given as net surplus, so deficits have a minus sign.
As you will see the figures in John Major's government were:
1991/92 -2.9%
1992/93 -6.4%
1993/94 -7.7%
1994/95 -6.5%
1995/96 -5.2%
1996/97 -3.7%
In Tony Blair's government:
1997/98 -1.9%
1998/99 +0.1%
1999/00 +1.3%
2000/01 +3.9%
2001/02 +0.7%
2002/03 -1.8%
2003/04 -3.0%
2004/05 -3.1%
2005/06 -3.3%
2006/07 -2.4%
In Gordon Brown's government:
2007/08 -2.5%
2008/09 -4.9%
2009/10 -10.9%
In David Cameron's government:
2010/11 -9.9%
2011/12 -8.1%
The spike in deficit is driven by what happened between 2008 and 2010, ie the financial crisis. The deficits being run under the last Conservative government were much higher than what was being run by the Labour government up to the crisis, the deficit going into the financial crisis in 2008 was 2.5% of GDP compared to a deficit of 3.7% that they had inherited in 1997. For 7 of the 13 years Labour were in office they ran either surpluses or smaller deficits than at any time during John Major's government.
The idea that is pushed by the Tories that "Labour spent too much leading up to the crisis" just does not add up. Their spending levels were much more sustainable than the spending levels of the last Conservative government. It is true that Labour spent much more on public services, because the Conservatives high deficit levels were not because of high spending on public services but because unemployment was so high then, so they had fewer people contributing tax and more people claiming benefits. The Conservatives were paying for a high bill of social failure. When Labour came in and unemployment fell (despite bringing in the minimum wage) the public finances got much better.
The same would happen if we returned to a growing economy now and got back on top of unemployment. The deficit melts away when you approach full employment. When you have high unemployment you will always have a deficit no matter how much 'austerity' you have, we had 17 years of Tory austerity and cuts and we were still running high deficits in their final years in office!
One more point of interest, George Osborne's Fiscal Mandate is that by 2015 the "current budget" should be in balance. The current budget is the left hand column in that table. This is where you disregard anything classed as "investment spending", eg when the government builds a hospital that counts as investment spend, when it pays doctors and nurses that counts as current spend. The Office for Budget Responsibility are going to release figures soon that are expected to say they forecast he will miss that target. However we were pretty much on that target in 2007/08, the current budget was in deficit of just 0.7% of GDP, rising to 7.2% by 2010 due to the financial crisis. So again this idea that we were spending unsustainably leading up to the financial crisis does not add up, Osborne would love to have a current budget deficit of 0.7% by 2015.
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| Quote ="Ajw71"Wasn't there a bust in 2008?
Oh but I thought Gordon ended boom and bust?'"
So are you now admitting you were wrong to say that Labour built up a huge deficit through public spending in the boom years?
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| The worst of it is that it doesn't even need to cost us a penny in real terms.
Spend £1bn in a massive project to build affordable housing and then sell them AT COST over time as they become available.
The government get their money back, Builders and any trade connected get a massive boost, more disposable income floods the system and first time buyers get the those houses they cannot afford right now.
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| Quote ="Anakin Skywalker"The worst of it is that it doesn't even need to cost us a penny in real terms.
'"
The idea that Cod'ead touted back on page 6 won't cost one penny to the government and public AT ALL, ever.
Other than releasing land that some public office accountant has valued at full retail cost, it just needs approaching from a public ownership point of view, we obtained this land for nothing, its doing nothing, we have a problem, the land provides the solution, all we have to do is get the accountant to change the numbers in his book and pin a little note to it to explain to future generations why the fictitious asset suddenly lost a lot of fictitious value overnight.
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| Quote ="JerryChicken"The idea that Cod'ead touted back on page 6 won't cost one penny to the government and public AT ALL, ever.
Other than releasing land that some public office accountant has valued at full retail cost, it just needs approaching from a public ownership point of view, we obtained this land for nothing, its doing nothing, we have a problem, the land provides the solution, all we have to do is get the accountant to change the numbers in his book and pin a little note to it to explain to future generations why the fictitious asset suddenly lost a lot of fictitious value overnight.'"
Oh I'm not saying Cod'ead is wrong because he isn't (TBH I was replying to the OP and didn't see the rest of the thread until after) but in either case building homes is the simplest way out.
You could actually run the 2 schemes side by side and then buying or renting in an affordable way becomes a reality.
Edit-My plan would obviously require using the same land that Cod'ead was talking about.
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| Quote ="Anakin Skywalker"Oh I'm not saying Cod'ead is wrong because he isn't (TBH I was replying to the OP and didn't see the rest of the thread until after) but in either case building homes is the simplest way out.
You could actually run the 2 schemes side by side and then buying or renting in an affordable way becomes a reality.'"
The prtoblem with buying in your scenario is that for many, it creates little more than wage slaves, who will accept working under any conditions, prooviding they can meet the mortgage at the end of the month. It will also lead to yet another house-value bubble as was evidenced in the 1980s with right-to-buy. I'd contend that before we build more homes to be bought at a subsidised value, we should readjust the mindset that there really is nothing wrong with renting. It worked perfectly well for decades before right-to-buy was introduced and there's absolutely no reason it cannot work again
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| [url=http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/oct/13/imf-george-osborne-austerity-76bn?CMP=twt_guAnother piece on Gidiot's failure[/url
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| Especially for Ajw71 and samwire:
Colin Talbot @colinrtalbot
Myths about our recent fiscal history: No. 1 Labour spent lots. Prior to global financial crisis Lab never went above 43% GDP, the 50 yr av.
Myths about our recent fiscal history: No. 2. Our deficit before Global Financial Crisis was high: never went above 3% GDP, which was low.
Myths about our recent fiscal history: No. 3: we were in unsubstainable debt before GFC: wrong, we never went above 40% of GDP was not high
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