Surely we aren’t measuring differently to other countries

I know.
With him it's the cost of everything and the value of nothing. People are just a commodity, of little value. Mind you, he's a good fit with the ruling party, despite their current thirst for spending.
You just know that when we start to poke our noses through the other side of the current pandemic, the work, dedication and risk that some have taken will be quickly forgotten and we'll all be back "in this together", wages frozen or possibly cut to bring down the eye watering deficit.
A re-release of "Ghost Town" by the Specials will be in order.

Going off on a slight tangent, it would be a very good time to impose long term restrictions on flights, to reduce carbon emissions etc.
I know that there wont be anything like the numbers of people moving between countries initially and it would be an ideal chance to set some limits on flying.

As we are now, one or two overseas trips would be an absolute luxury anyway.

As far as I know we are .

When I checked the italian figures with a friend in Italy he says that he thinks they are all counted as they get the deaths from care homes counted.

Not only that there is pressure put on certain agencies in the UK to record deaths other than from corona virus.

Hence some deaths in the community are recorded as heart attack or COPD. Now those people would probably have died anyway but their life expectancy was shortened by c19. But they are no being counted. As they are not being tested for C19 n one knows .

This however is anecdotal and I cannot prove but the 7500 in care homes plus the 14,576 takes us to 22.076

Italy’s is 22,745 but there curve is definitely falling ie daily death rate ours has not plateaued yet.

Let’s look at how British politicians look at at Italy as the sick man of Europe

Will this make the UK the sickest man of Europe ?

Countries around the world are measuring differently. There are differences in methodology and standards across medical response, testing, reporting and diagnoses. There are also enormous question marks over the cause of death, i.e. dying of CV19 or dying with CV19, which may never be answered.

Someone in a care home has serious heart disease. They've suffered a couple of heart attacks and a stroke in the past. They contract CV19, show symptoms and pass away from a fatal cardiac arrest. Is CV19 the direct or underlying cause of death? Or simply present? The doctor may put CV19 on the death certificate but it may not actually be the cause of death.

CV19 "can be given as cause of death even where a CV19 test result has not been received", and CV19 "is not a reason on its own to refer a death to a coroner". So it goes on the death certificate even if the doctor cannot be 100% sure the patient had it or to what degree it contributed to the death.

Furthermore in these emergency circumstances "any medical practitioner with GMC registration can sign the MCCD, even if they did not attend the deceased during their last illness" as long as they meet certain criteria. This is understandable given the demand on doctors and the fact many might be isolating or poorly themselves.

Then you have political motivations. Countries such as China, Russia, Iran and Brazil are vastly under reporting their numbers, whereas others (I suspect including the UK based on death certificate advice) are erring on the side of over reporting, i.e. if CV19 is even suspected to be present, it's included on the death certificate as outlined above.

That's why the global numbers are little more than a very. very rough guideline. We'll probably never know the true picture.

Not for one minute - all I am saying is, it is sat behind you keyboard to criticise and hindsight is a wonderful thing - I also said in another post that there is no doubt the government is throwing what ever monies are needed for the NHS to get through this.

Do you think are not working hard enough? If not what more do you want them to do - have they made errors it would be impossible to get it all right given the circumstances.

All this lot can do is criticise and complain with the benefit of hindsight. I picture see them sat behind their keyboards with smug grins and folded arms.

They ignore the facts, they ignore that this is a novel virus and everything that entails, they ignore that we're in a massive global emergency. They expect everything and they expect it now, and if it doesn't all run to their lofty expectations it's all down to 'Boris' and the government.

If only Boris had seen Durham Giant's post a few weeks ago.

Spoken by a true lefty - we are so much more sensitive and human than those on the right - its pathetic. so what is the better scenario - we lose some people now the majority of which are elderly and have an underlying condition - many of which would have died anyway or later down the line significantly more people die through mental issues, domestic violence etc when the trashing of the economy starts to kick in. People who have worked very hard to build businesses and employ people will have lost everything through no fault of their own - this is the true human cost of this strategy. I appreciate for all you public servants this impact is completely lost as its big bad capitalism - many of these people will also lose the roof over their head - something you public servants who have never had to put your neck on the line.

So not only are people lockdown when its over you want to restrict where and when they can travel - big brother - are you for real. I would have more respect if you actually called out the real carbon polluters.

All that is going to happen here is we will all pay more taxes - simply as. It might actually force a coming together across the world on taxes paid by corporations - I would consider that a much better use of everyone's time than banning flights - the politics of envy!!

This is one of my bugbears doing any international comparison work in economics. You are often not comparing like with like.

For me the best way to measure the impact of covid-19 will be to look at the total weekly deaths registered (all causes) that the ONS produces, in a few years time. Take say the 5 year average before 2020 of the deaths per week in each week of the year as your baseline (this will take in to account higher totals in winter when there is flu circulating). Then compare this to the deaths by week in 2020, 2021 and 2022. Assume that in the absence of covid-19, you would have been on the baseline of the previous 5-year average, and measure the 'excess'. If you look over a long period like 3 years, you will be able to see the effect of deaths that would have otherwise happened anyway over that time, being hastened by covid. You may see that amongst the older age groups, when the pandemic is over, a lower weekly death rate than average for a while, because a lot of those who would have died in 2021/22 have already died in 2020. If the weekly death rates returned in line with their previous average by say 2023, then you would measure the excess deaths in 2020-22 as likely to have been caused by covid, including all the spillover deaths from things like patients who didn't catch the virus but died due to the NHS having fewer resources available to treat them for something else.

It so tough debating with intellectual colossuses as Wrencat, Bren 2K, Wizeb (sic) They are always right - they are always more sensitive, always more in tune, all remainers too, us on the right are cold heartless and only interested in making money. I make no apology for that - the 300 people that work for me are depending on me making money for employment.

Presently revenues are down 50% and its tough - first thing to go my salary, next three month deferral on HP payments, next directors deferral of salaries, etc. its tough. I wonder how many of the lefties on here are making a similar sacrifice with their pay - a silence because non of them will be - they care so much for everyone else but only once their alright jack!! hypocrites the lot of them.

We're not seeing emergency NHS treatment impacted yet by all accounts, and there is significant spare critical care capacity at present (2,600 beds as of yesterday), although there will almost certainly be deaths caused by people not seeking medical attention due to a perceived risk of attending hospital, and other lockdown/isolation-related deaths, including those linked to mental health.

My 75 year old mother attended North Manchester General last week for heart issues (turned out to be angina, nothing serious thankfully). The paramedics and her GP insisted she went as the CV19 and non-CV19 areas are completely separate. Another member of my family took their 6 year old to a different hospital yesterday (fell off his bed and split his head open) - same story. No wait for treatment at either.

Yes, the numbers won't become clear for a few years, and we still rely on accurate and honest reporting from some quarters. The US could yet see some massive numbers. Brazil and Russia are about to implode although I suspect the numbers will never be truly disclosed. Japan struggling. Africa - who knows.

Oh dear, oh dear, oh dear.

Called out for being a total idiot and you now want to come out fighting





Using your theory, bearing in mind we will all die at some point, lets just get rid of medical care entirely and let nature take it's course.

As for restricting flights, yes

If this government was "listening to the science", this is exactly what they should be doing.
Perhaps not a ban on frequent fliers but, certainly a substantial "carbon levy" after whatever agreed limit was reached.

Regarding businesses that have lost everything, through no fault of their own - I absolutely agree, there has to be a way found to allow some level of commerce, certainly within the manufacturing sector or, we will at some point end up with riots and anarchy.

I also agree about nations working better together but, with people like Trump in charge of any nation, it simply isn't going to happen - he and his ilk would see people die as long as they are ok and if you look at his handling of this, that is already happening over there - do you think he cares one iota about other people in other countries - not a chance.

Restricting flights, not banning them or, do we only listen to the science when it suits

I see the BBC have to apologise over the NHS director asking for Burberry's number - he wasn't anything to do with the NHS just a PPE supplier looking to purchase more stock - I see the BBC weren't happy the hospital doctor this morning who suggested no issue with PPE in his trust?

You obviously struggle with comprehension - but most on here know that - the government have a choice - trade short term deaths for a longer term different health crisis down the line - now dying of Covid must be pretty horrific but being beaten to death by an abusive partner wont be a barrel of laughs either - domestic violence calls up 25% do you think that will go down if this continues?

Yes we listen to the science and we take the appropriate action - so let's make a start by talking coal fired plants all over Europe, Asia and the US - planes account for about 2% of all carbon output - perhaps as you say we need to listen to the science - let's not skirt around the edges let's make a real difference - shame you went for the easy option which quite frankly will make all difference. Perhaps you are one of those who seldom uses a plane so its no skin off your nose. Business travel will decrease as people have seen the benefit of using Zoom, Blue Jeans and Teams. Also companies will have to cut back - profits and cash will be tight for quite a while.

What we have seen is a significant reduction in the use of A&E now we have suddenly all become healthier which suggests perhaps a big chunk of those using A&E didn't need to be there after all - we talk about protecting the NHS it will be interesting to see if the numbers rise again once this crisis subsides?

No, once again you have me wrong.

I have been a company director for almost 30 years.
Until 2007, this was for a different company but, now, I run my own, albeit small, business and surprise, surprise, I'm more than happy to change my lifestyle - so no envy on my part.

As for the coal fired PowerStation's and plant, yes, they clearly should be converted, along with the UK (and others) not exporting its "dirty" manufacture to China and the Asian continent and then lauding their excellent "green" credentials.

Regarding flights, did you actually read what I posted ?

The third runway at Heathrow is still on the drawing board and with movement going to decrease anyway, for a government that "listens to the science", what an ideal time to put a halt to it.
this is not envy, it's common sense.

I realise that this may impact on you travelling to your little second home in Ibiza or, make it a little more expensive but, that seems damn sensible - if we listen to the science.

As for our government's handling of the virus, at some point they will have to be brave enough to show their hand, so that business or, what's left of it, can make a plan.

You like to take a swipe at the politics of people like me but, I can only imagine your brain exploding if Labour had made anything close to the same choices.
Now that would have been worth seeing.

Italy deffo quoted as hospital deaths only today, however France quoted hospital and care home deaths - in the scheme of things pretty irrelevant but the graphs they keep showing are pretty pointless if countries are using different measures

Anyhows, nearly time for Donald’s daily rant - who’s he gunna blame today, certainly won’t be him

Has the Tory government made massive mistakes with their handling? Yes of course. Mistakes that have resulted in more deaths than was needed. But would labour have done any better? Probably not

One if known the other is hypothetical.

If the stories coming out about Boris missing all these meetings are true his position is untenable in my view and he should resign - I suspect they will keep him at Chequers in the hope it all blows over. For me he is done.

I agree with you there needs to be some framework for the exit from this - problem is the population will not behave as we have seen I can understand the government not giving out any positive signals but that doesn't help businesses make decisions as to what to do - if its going to be lifted in 3 weeks is one things 3 months is quite another. Landlords are reverting to type to get paid so you might decide its not worth it and close shop if the damage done by this is not recoverable due to the length of the lockdown.

Sport will be forever damaged and no bad thing in my opinion - its business model is seriously flawed - too much money is flowing into players pockets and that needs to change - you can't a business model that relies on benefactors for survival.

On planes we must agree to differ - travel should be a freedom open to all as and when they need it. Penalising the use of aircraft seems churlish and a definite attack on the corporate kings you admire so much (sic) Surely we would make a greater impact by restricting the number of cars we have on the roads - kids should either walk to school or use public transport. Do we all need 2/3 cars per household. I suspect that might impact you personally more than a frequent flyer tax? Ibiza - I am way too old for that I'm with granny and grandads in the south of Spain.

There are mistakes, and there is fingers crossed, blind ignorance.

But it’s the Tories in charge. Don’t start using deflection tactics to let them off the hook, especially with the news now coming out about Boris...

That is a fair point - you simply cannot blame anyone else for the handling of this crisis

It's beautiful, nearly epiphanetic.

Not sure its quite that - we all know mistakes have been made - I would suggest the best thing the government can do is come clean and explain everything

[iMacron-esque[/i?
I won't hold my breath.

Gove appears to excuse Johnson’s incompetence because he caught the virus. Let us not forget he was gloating about shaking patients hands during an hospital visit despite being aware of the virus.
Gove admitted Johnson missed the 5 COBRA meetings but he was never going to attend. These meetings were about the Virus and Gove admitted Johnson was kept up to date but still did not understand the severity of the situation.
It is clear he likes the position of PM but not the responsibility that goes with it, this was also highlighted by his Flood response or lack of it.