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| History suggests that what Johnson says never meets the legislation they produce.
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| Quote ="sally cinnamon"Sal Paradise what if you were a newly elected Tory MP in a rural town that has just gone Tory after voting Labour for years, and who voted Leave and Conservative because they were fed up of being left behind by urban-centric metropolitan types who just focused spending on cities and ignored the slowly decaying rural towns.
When they come to your constituency office and say "the bus service round here has been stripped away and stripped away for years, its like we're forgotten about, not everybody is well off enough to get a car, some folk need the buses to get about?"....what's your answer?'"
I would ask them why did they vote for me - did I say I would improve the bus service no I didn't because I have very little influence on what the bus company ? What I did say I would improve the NHS which will positively benefit you, I said we would exit the EU and we have so another positive etc. Be honest with people you cannot be all things to all people that's is Socialist clap trap. Most people understand simple logic to suggest otherwise is saying they are members of ER.
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| We will build 40 new hospitals- lie, We will employ 50,000 new nurses - lie, we will be able to give 390 million pounds a week to the NHS - lie, we pay 1 billion each month to the EU - lie, we will not have any border checks between the U.K. and Nth Ireland - lie, I could list more but I think you get the idea.
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| Quote ="sally cinnamon"When they come to your constituency office and say "the bus service round here has been stripped away and stripped away for years, its like we're forgotten about, not everybody is well off enough to get a car, some folk need the buses to get about?"....what's your answer?'"
"LIFE IS TOUGH - I CAN'T PLEASE EVERYBODY - THE BUS COMPANY HAS TO MAKE A PROFIT!
Now get out of my office - wherever it is. Where even am I? What's this place called again?"
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| This will be exactly the characterisation of the Tories that brings them down in years to come, like it did in the 1990s.
They have campaigned on the basis of peoples disillusionment with the decline of their areas and of their services (which is largely driven by Conservative cuts anyway), and portrayed themselves as being on the side of the people not the establishment/business interests, to get people to vote for them.
The voters will expect a return on that and if the Tories revert back to dismissing their concerns with a variant of, "life isn't easy, deal with it" then it will undermine their whole narrative about being the ones 'in touch' with traditional working class communities.
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| Quote ="sally cinnamon"This will be exactly the characterisation of the Tories that brings them down in years to come, like it did in the 1990s.
They have campaigned on the basis of peoples disillusionment with the decline of their areas and of their services (which is largely driven by Conservative cuts anyway), and portrayed themselves as being on the side of the people not the establishment/business interests, to get people to vote for them.
The voters will expect a return on that and if the Tories revert back to dismissing their concerns with a variant of, "life isn't easy, deal with it" then it will undermine their whole narrative about being the ones 'in touch' with traditional working class communities.'"
Johnson is, from a policy perspective, an empty vessel. The cabinet is disempowered, having accepted the hegemony of Cummings stable of SPADs.
On balance i’m looking at this as better than it could have been. Cummings isn’t a Tory and oddball though he is, if it keeps Raab and Patel from pulling the levers then so much the better - I can live with that particular democratic deficit.
There’s a question over how well Johnson’s ego will take being widely seen as a ‘comedy clown mascot’ PM. If things start to go badly, then that’s bad by definition and Cumming’s programme will be chucked overboard pdq. On the other hand, if things go well and Cummings is getting the credit, will that slake the thirst that has driven Boris Johnson, a man of basically no political conviction, to pursue his current role?
If this is to have any longevity, then Laurel has make sure Hardy gets applause.
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| Quote ="bren2k""LIFE IS TOUGH - I CAN'T PLEASE EVERYBODY - THE BUS COMPANY HAS TO MAKE A PROFIT!
Now get out of my office - wherever it is. Where even am I? What's this place called again?"'"
Or yes we can do everything for everybody - which we all know is not possible - I'm sorry the patient that is current getting the £250k a year cancer treatment is getting priority over your bus route. I'm sure you understand that we have to make very difficult decision given we don't have an inexhaustible supply of money. I know you understand that and we both agree that most people with an IQ above that of a slug would also.
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| Quote ="Scarlet Pimpernell"We will build 40 new hospitals- lie, We will employ 50,000 new nurses - lie, we will be able to give 390 million pounds a week to the NHS - lie, we pay 1 billion each month to the EU - lie, we will not have any border checks between the U.K. and Nth Ireland - lie, I could list more but I think you get the idea.'"
You don't know yet do you - we may well build 40 hospitals and we may well have 50k more nurses than we do now - still 4.75 years to go. Would you Labour's claim of selling off the NHS is a lie or are you so myopic you can't see that?
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| Quote ="Scarlet Pimpernell"History suggests that what Johnson says never meets the legislation they produce.'"
History suggests no government actually meets its manifesto pledges - either side of the fence - of course you know that
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| Quote ="Sal Paradise"Would you Labour's claim of selling off the NHS is a lie or are you so myopic you can't see that?'"
In your own words... [iYou don't know yet do you - we may well sell off the NHS - still 4.75 years to go.[/i
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| Quote ="sally cinnamon"This will be exactly the characterisation of the Tories that brings them down in years to come, like it did in the 1990s.
They have campaigned on the basis of peoples disillusionment with the decline of their areas and of their services (which is largely driven by Conservative cuts anyway), and portrayed themselves as being on the side of the people not the establishment/business interests, to get people to vote for them.
The voters will expect a return on that and if the Tories revert back to dismissing their concerns with a variant of, "life isn't easy, deal with it" then it will undermine their whole narrative about being the ones 'in touch' with traditional working class communities.'"
I agree - so HS2 is one thing - they say they will invest £5bn in buses/bikes - there is a desire to spend more in the North but you cannot be all things to all people - how many times do we have to have this discussion. It would be great run every bus every 5 minutes, every treatment you need in the NHS is available when you want it - life is not like that. I'm sure there are things you want that you can't have why should we expect everything all the time. Politicians are in the game of winning elections so if you were in their shoes do you think spending money on the NHS/Education/Police would win more votes than extra bus routes?
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| Quote ="Sal Paradise" Politicians are in the game of winning elections so if you were in their shoes do you think spending money on the NHS/Education/Police would win more votes than extra bus routes?'"
The Tories have been responsible for cutting the funding to all four - and then lying about future funding/ improvements - so how come they keep winning elections?
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| Quote ="silver2"The Tories have been responsible for cutting the funding to all four - and then lying about future funding/ improvements - so how come they keep winning elections?'"
Because the public prefer their control of spending to Labour and people simply don't buy you can give everything to everybody - unlike some of here
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| Quote ="Sal Paradise"Because the public prefer their control of spending to Labour and people simply don't buy you can give everything to everybody - unlike some of here
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I think this is what Johnson is proposing and this is why Javid had to go so I guess you are one of them.
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| Quote ="Sal Paradise"I agree - so HS2 is one thing - they say they will invest £5bn in buses/bikes - there is a desire to spend more in the North but you cannot be all things to all people - how many times do we have to have this discussion. It would be great run every bus every 5 minutes, every treatment you need in the NHS is available when you want it - life is not like that. I'm sure there are things you want that you can't have why should we expect everything all the time. Politicians are in the game of winning elections so if you were in their shoes do you think spending money on the NHS/Education/Police would win more votes than extra bus routes?'"
But now that we are outside the EU there is supposed to be extra money available which we aren't giving to the EU - why isn't that being spent on the left behind northern towns, or should it just be spaffed up the wall on vanity projects for London and the major cities?
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| Quote ="sally cinnamon"But now that we are outside the EU there is supposed to be extra money available which we aren't giving to the EU - why isn't that being spent on the left behind northern towns, or should it just be spaffed up the wall on vanity projects for London and the major cities?'"
They have only been in power since December we only stopped paying in to the EU two week ago - what do you expect? There will be a budget soon which no doubt will outline spending plans for the North. Better trains - having taken over Northern no doubt that will improve, more bus routes has been announced. The road network in the north is very well invested. If they move other government departments/operations up North like the ministry of justice - 200 jobs in Leeds surely that is an example - what more do what and in what timescale?
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| Quote ="Scarlet Pimpernell"I think this is what Johnson is proposing and this is why Javid had to go so I guess you are one of them.'"
What cannot happen is you brief against the boss - in an environment - because you get to a its either you or him/her and 99% of the time its you who goes.
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| Quote ="Sal Paradise"They have only been in power since December we only stopped paying in to the EU two week ago'"
We're still paying in for the duration of the transition period. 2020 is just pretend Brexit year. Don't expect the floods of investment for at least another 11 months.
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| Quote ="Sal Paradise"What cannot happen is you brief against the boss - in an environment - because you get to a its either you or him/her and 99% of the time its you who goes.'"
When Theresa May was boss people briefed against her all the time.
Gordon Brown's cronies briefed against Blair all the time as well in the later Blair years.
Boris is in a powerful position now as he's just won an election and there is no obvious alternate leader, but after some time passes and the economy turns his power will wane and there will be more hostile briefing. Especially if/when he falls out with Cummings.
As William Hague said, "the Conservative party is famously loyal to its leader...until it isn't"
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| Quote ="sally cinnamon"As William Hague said, "the Conservative party is famously loyal to its leader...until it isn't"'"
Or as Stephen Fry once observed, "as leader of the Conservative party, your enemies are not sat on the benches opposite. They're sat behind you."
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| Quote ="sally cinnamon"When Theresa May was boss people briefed against her all the time.
Gordon Brown's cronies briefed against Blair all the time as well in the later Blair years.
Boris is in a powerful position now as he's just won an election and there is no obvious alternate leader, but after some time passes and the economy turns his power will wane and there will be more hostile briefing. Especially if/when he falls out with Cummings.
As William Hague said, "the Conservative party is famously loyal to its leader...until it isn't"'"
That is why May turned a 30 point lead into near defeat, she couldn't get anything done on Brexit etc. Labour was fine for the first term and half and after that they were on the slide as the infighting grew. Corbyn could control his troops and look what happened? Thatcher the same as Blair.
The difference is Cummings has shown an adept ability to make things happen - Brexit and a 70 seat majority perhaps he is the perfect foil for Boris who let's face it is a front man.
Never mind Labour are coming and we will all have trans-rights/new abortion rules/be kind to the trees shoved down our throat along with a host of other stuff and they wonder why nobody voted for them - complete bunch of clowns with no grasp on reality.
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| Quote ="King Street Cat"In your own words... [iYou don't know yet do you - we may well sell off the NHS - still 4.75 years to go.[/i'"
I don't yet whether I will play for the Leeds Rhinos - I would suggests the odds of that and the selling off of the NHS are about the same
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| Quote ="Sal Paradise"I don't yet whether I will play for the Leeds Rhinos - I would suggests the odds of that and the selling off of the NHS are about the same
'"
Another gullible Northerner believing that the NHS is safe in Tory hands!
Good luck on the Rhinos debut- considering the NHS has been sold off by stealth with more and more contracts for services going to the private sector, I reckon best get your boots cleaned- that debut will come sooner than you think.
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| Quote ="Sal Paradise"
The difference is Cummings has shown an adept ability to make things happen - Brexit and a 70 seat majority perhaps he is the perfect foil for Boris who let's face it is a front man.
'"
Cummings has shown an ability to plot successful campaigns, which is a different thing from successfully governing.
In terms of his ideas, I wouldn't write him off. I think he has some interesting thoughts and whilst he seems to be a man of the right in terms of 'culture war', he has grasped some things about the importance of science and education and the need to spread wealth around the country that make him a more progressive force than the Cameron/Osborne acolytes. I don't think he is in politics to suck up to the already super rich.
The interesting point will be when Cummings starts to clash with the Conservative hierachy. He isn't even a member of the Conservative party, he's just someone they use because they think he is effective and like that he is non-pc and willing to take on aspects of the establishment they don't like, the BBC, courts etc. But it seems that this whole Treasury coup was forced because Cummings wants to go far further in terms of turning on the spending taps than the Javid or the Treasury upper brass were comfortable with. If he starts throwing cash around, Conservatives will find it distasteful but they'll suck it up and go along with it, as long as they think it helps them be popular.
If a recession comes along, and the government lose popularity, then Boris will be under pressure to change direction and offer up some heads on spikes, and Cummings ability to make enemies out of everyone will mean he'll be vulnerable at that point.
Nick Timothy, Theresa May's SpAD, was another overbearing character trying to run everything from No.10, although he kept a lower profile than Cummings does. But he had the same traits of bullying/falling out with many people in the Conservative hierachy. He was sacked the day after the 2017 election, when Theresa May needed a sacrificial head on a spike and his many enemies turned on him.
I think similar may happen with Seamus Milne in Labour, particularly if they have the pretext of the EHRC report pointing to him as being a problem with interfering with antisemitism expulsions.
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| As always Sally, you cut through all of the nonsense on here and provide a well thought out argument. I can only assume for someone displaying such wisdom, you must be a Warrington supporter.
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