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Quote ="Sal Paradise"As we import more than we export that would have a positive effect on inflation - although it will affect tourism etc. Given what we export seems quite specialist i.e. not mass market will the rise in the pound have a huge impact on these goods?'"
There was an article in the Economist early this year about this: www.economist.com/news/britain/2 ... dium-sized
It suggested that when the pound falls, its good news for small firm exporters that tend to manufacture at home and sell abroad, but had less effect on large firm exporters that are likely to have some parts of their operations based overseas close to their customers, so when the pound falls their costs in overseas operations rise.
So when the pound rises it should be the opposite effect: the small firms that manufacture at home will find it harder to export, but the large firm exporters will not be affected as much.
Basically if you are a global firm you are less likely to be affected by currency fluctuations for good or bad.
The danger I see of a rising pound is what will happen to our trade balance. The most recent figures said we have our biggest trade deficit since 1989. A year or so ago the Coalition were always talking about "rebalancing the economy": from imports to exports, from London to the regions, from services to manufacturing, from consumption and government spending to investment etc but this is one thing that is definitely not happening in terms of the recent good news on growth. We are not seeing those rebalancing effects in fact on some of those measures we are becoming more unbalanced.
If the pound rises then its good news for families struggling with flatlining wages and the cost of living but the flipside is the reason its good news is because it means imported goods become cheaper (hence it bearing down on inflation), this means our imports are likely to rise and our trade balance could get even worse. Given that a trade deficit is always financed by accruing debt to the rest of the world, this is not a healthy situation. |
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Quote ="Sal Paradise"As we import more than we export that would have a positive effect on inflation - although it will affect tourism etc. Given what we export seems quite specialist i.e. not mass market will the rise in the pound have a huge impact on these goods?'"
There was an article in the Economist early this year about this: www.economist.com/news/britain/2 ... dium-sized
It suggested that when the pound falls, its good news for small firm exporters that tend to manufacture at home and sell abroad, but had less effect on large firm exporters that are likely to have some parts of their operations based overseas close to their customers, so when the pound falls their costs in overseas operations rise.
So when the pound rises it should be the opposite effect: the small firms that manufacture at home will find it harder to export, but the large firm exporters will not be affected as much.
Basically if you are a global firm you are less likely to be affected by currency fluctuations for good or bad.
The danger I see of a rising pound is what will happen to our trade balance. The most recent figures said we have our biggest trade deficit since 1989. A year or so ago the Coalition were always talking about "rebalancing the economy": from imports to exports, from London to the regions, from services to manufacturing, from consumption and government spending to investment etc but this is one thing that is definitely not happening in terms of the recent good news on growth. We are not seeing those rebalancing effects in fact on some of those measures we are becoming more unbalanced.
If the pound rises then its good news for families struggling with flatlining wages and the cost of living but the flipside is the reason its good news is because it means imported goods become cheaper (hence it bearing down on inflation), this means our imports are likely to rise and our trade balance could get even worse. Given that a trade deficit is always financed by accruing debt to the rest of the world, this is not a healthy situation. | |
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| Quote ="General Zod."The so called economists of the mainstream media are thick - just like you..'"
Nice formation of an argument!
Quote ="General Zod.""George Osborne likes to say that the UK government’s cost of borrowing (the yield on gilts – government IOUs) is low because investors are impressed with his running of the economy.
This is complete and utter tripe.
Gilt yields are low because the Bank of England now owns about a third of the entire market. If the Bank was to try to even think of offloading these bonds, or even to stop buying gilts, we’d soon see how impressed investors are with Osborne’s governance.
In short, the UK is a ‘zombie’ economy. From top to bottom, it’s being kept on life support by low interest rates".
Source: John Stepek, Money Week
In short:-
As soon as interest rates go up we are finished.
As soon as foreign investors move away from the pound we are finished.
This is only a matter of time.'"
This is the same doommonger John Stepek whose non main stream economic advice at the start of 2013 was to Buy Gold. This same magazine this year stated 2013 was "terrible for gold" Gold dropped 431 points (25.69% in value)
I bet you also believe that other sad leftie economist Danny 'I'm always wrong' Blanchflower! |
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| Quote ="Him"Not at all, I hadn't actually noticed your post, apologies.:'"
Apology accepted
Quote ="Him"It certainly wasn't a deliberate error to mislead, the graphs on that site are, however, a little misleading themselves. For instance if you use the same data ie GDP per capita PPP but for 2010 to 2013 you will see it shows the higher figure I quoted as being for a period including 2010 and into 2011, but not to the end of 2011.
If I was incorrect, I apologise and withdraw the comment.:'"
Ok I accept you didn't intend to mislead. The graph shows end of year figures, which is normal. You quoted the end of 2011. Given that the coalition had enjoyed 2 to 3 quarters of growth in 2010 since the election this would have made the increases to date even greater than using the end of 2010 figures.
As you were clearly incorrect and I also thank you your apology for this too. So I can repeat what you said at the time but with the opposite conclusion "thank you for proving the GDP per capita figures have risen since 2010"
Can we also agree that when you state something in future as a fact, or as you prefer to state "FACT", then we should all take it with a large pinch of salt 
Quote ="Him"Incidentally, I notice the Andrew Mitchell thread hasn't been touched recently...
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Inflation falls further.
Milliband will have to find a new sound bite soon. This 'cost of living crisis' myth won't wash much longer.
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| Quote ="Ajw71"Inflation falls further.
Milliband will have to find a new sound bite soon. This 'cost of living crisis' myth won't wash much longer.'"
So people are not suffering? People are not struggling? People hsve suddenly found that they really can make ends meet?
Must try harder, little troll. |
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| Quote ="Mintball"So people are not suffering? People are not struggling? People hsve suddenly found that they really can make ends meet?
Must try harder, little troll.'"
and how much worse is it, genuinely, than it was under Labour? (serious question) |
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| Quote ="Standee"and how much worse is it, genuinely, than it was under Labour? (serious question)'"
Have a read of this:
[urlhttp://ftalphaville.ft.com/2013/02/20/1393672/the-real-rate-of-british-inflation/[/url
What they are arguing is that inflation on essentials is much worse than the headline rate and also that as wage inflation has consistently been lower than this "real" rate of inflation we all feel poorer regrdless of what the inflation rate is suposed to be.
It certainly mirrors my perception of what things in the weekly shop cost. I am no statistician but for example I am sure if some dramatic drop in the cost of petrol means the headline rate drops anyone who doesn't drive will stick two fingers up at any rejoicing at the new low rate they themselves are not enjoying.
Tablet computers are also in the basket of goods used to compile the official headline inflation rate. We buy one of those on a weekly basis don't we!
Worse though for the overall picture is that wages have not kept pace with prices even if you ignore the essentials index. So that alone will make people feel worse off especially as they get naff all on interests on savings.
One thing missing from the essential index and (I think, though I could be wrong) the headline rate is rent. Add in the effect of loss of child benefit for some and the reduction in other benefits and you get the picture.
Here in Chester if the council have their way I will from Sept 2015 face a £1200 a year charge for transport of my Austisic son to school.
That will make my personal inflation rate much higher than other people with the same income won't it. |
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| Quote ="Lord Elpers"Apology accepted
Ok I accept you didn't intend to mislead. The graph shows end of year figures, which is normal. You quoted the end of 2011. Given that the coalition had enjoyed 2 to 3 quarters of growth in 2010 since the election this would have made the increases to date even greater than using the end of 2010 figures.
As you were clearly incorrect and I also thank you your apology for this too. So I can repeat what you said at the time but with the opposite conclusion "thank you for proving the GDP per capita figures have risen since 2010"
Can we also agree that when you state something in future as a fact, or as you prefer to state "FACT", then we should all take it with a large pinch of salt
'"
Actually most figures aren't end of year, they're often quarterly or partial years. Some are then averaged out to be used as yearly figures.
I also have never used the term "FACT". Not sure who you're confusing me with there. I'll happily admit I got that one wrong, I looked at the graph for those years and going by that you can see why I posted what I did. Unfortunately for me the graph was incorrectly labelled. But as it was only 1 point in a larger post basically about how it's the economy hasn't recovered yet and any recovery is down to the economy itself not government fiscal policy, it changes very little really.
As for the Mitchell thread, well nice bluster on there but you've steered well clear of the actual issue on it. Again, I wonder why |
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| Quote ="Him"Actually most figures aren't end of year, they're often quarterly or partial years. Some are then averaged out to be used as yearly figures. '"
Well this graph was obviously a yearly one and you chose to quote the 2011 figures and stated it was the 2010 figure. Your apology is beginning to look a bit weaselly. You ability to read graphs is matched by your ability to see invisible shocked members of the public on CCTV film!
Quote ="Him"I also have never used the term "FACT". Not sure who you're confusing me with there. I'll happily admit I got that one wrong, '"
Quote ="Him"Or of course I could always revert to the right-wingers tactic of simply making things up? Maybe if I do that and then put the word "FACT" next to it? Or some other word? If I do that often enough I could even convince myself it might be true.'"
You have a short memory. Was this your pre-warning of this tactic? Pass the salt I need a big pinch again.
Quote ="Him"I looked at the graph for those years and going by that you can see why I posted what I did. Unfortunately for me the graph was incorrectly labelled. But as it was only 1 point in a larger post basically about how it's the economy hasn't recovered yet and any recovery is down to the economy itself not government fiscal policy, it changes very little really. '"
Not so - you made a big point that the GDP PPP had fallen since the coalition came to office. So what it changes is the exact opposite of what you claimed. Obviously not of great concern to you. Is this what you keep referring to as "Guff"
Quote ="Him"As for the Mitchell thread, well nice bluster on there but you've steered well clear of the actual issue on it. Again, I wonder why
'"
Why do you keep posting Mitchell stuff on this thread? Perhaps you might like to post, on the right thread, what in your opinion are the "actual issues" or is this another "FACT" -- get the salt ready. |
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| Quote ="Lord Elpers"Well this graph was obviously a yearly one and you chose to quote the 2011 figures and stated it was the 2010 figure. Your apology is beginning to look a bit weaselly. You ability to read graphs is matched by your ability to see invisible shocked members of the public on CCTV film! '"
Was it? Obviously? Not the graph I looked at. It didn't show a yearly figure. It was apparently wrongly labelled. But I've accepted that point already. As I said it makes little difference to the overall picture for most people, especially if you start looking at regional variances.
Quote ="Lord Elpers"You have a short memory. Was this your pre-warning of this tactic? Pass the salt I need a big pinch again. '"
 This should be a dictionary definition of grasping at straws!
Quote ="Lord Elpers"Not so - you made a big point that the GDP PPP had fallen since the coalition came to office. So what it changes is the exact opposite of what you claimed. Obviously not of great concern to you. Is this what you keep referring to as "Guff" '"
Did I? Where is this big point that I made? I believe it was as part of a larger post. You only chose to pick up on one stat within that post and ignored the others. Did you think they were irrelevant? You know, like what Andrew Mitchell said is irrelevant in a discussion about what Andrew Mitchell said?
Quote ="Lord Elpers"Why do you keep posting Mitchell stuff on this thread? Perhaps you might like to post, on the right thread, what in your opinion are the "actual issues" or is this another "FACT" -- get the salt ready.'"
Because you're hilarious that's why 
You can bluster and misdirect all you want, you've been shown up on the Mitchell thread through trying to change the whole point of the debate, the same way you have here. No doubt there will be further attempted misdirection and bluster in your next post. Though quite how salt and using the word "FACT" in capital letters made it into the debate I really don't know. |
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The horrible George Osborne who is generally a horrible man who likes to attack the poor and most vulnerable in society has said today he wants an above inflation rise to the minimum wage.
Cost of Living Crisis Myth.....
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Laudable ...
but small increases in a small amount of money is a very small amount of money.
Edit:
This is a proposed increase to seven pounds from six pounds thirty one pence.
That will be somewhere near the 11% pay rise the MPs are going to get.
So the MPs can claim low paid workers are getting the SAME pay rise.
lol
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| Quote ="Ajw71"The horrible George Osborne who is generally a horrible man who likes to attack the poor and most vulnerable in society has said today he wants an above inflation rise to the minimum wage.
Cost of Living Crisis Myth.....'"
Just as I predicted before xmas, and just as I predicted before xmas in the same speech he also kicked a live shell in Vince Cables trench saying that he personally thought there should be an above inflation increase to the minimum wage but of course it wasn't up to the chancellor to suggest that, it was the business secretary who should push it through, he also slipped in a couple of references to "the great recession" and on one of those mentioned that it was Labours "great recession", he's lining up his soundbites early.
Just a little over twelve months from now they will all be clearing their desks ready for the rush back to the constituency's, Osbourne has twelve months to dangle some carrots, get his catchphrases correct, polish up the propaganda, expect a lot more of the same starting right now.
Personally I think they will convince enough people to get a second term on their own. |
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| Quote ="Ajw71"The horrible George Osborne who is generally a horrible man who likes to attack the poor and most vulnerable in society has said today he wants an above inflation rise to the minimum wage.
Cost of Living Crisis Myth.....'"
It is such a myth Osborne has had to suggest he'd like to see a rise in the minimum wage. He is not setting the agenda he is reacting too it.
It is also not up to him anyway. The level is set by the low pay commission set up by Labour deliberately to remove the decision from politicians so they couldn't give it a nice rise just before a general election.
In other words however much it goes up by won't be down to what Osborne says he thinks it should be.
However much it goes up by this will be before, if re-elected, he cuts £12bn from the social secuity budget which will land on the same working poor who are paid the minimum wage as he has ring fenced just about everyone else in receipt of money from the social security budget from the cuts (such as pensioners).
Anyone who falls for this is thick.
Also of note is the day before Osborne came out with this he, his party and the Lib Dems voted against a Labour motion to ensure the enforcement of the minimum wage, [urestore its value[/u and encourage (not force) employers to work towards the living wage. That was defeated by a majority of 70.
A government amendment, in the name of the Prime Minister, noted that the minimum wage has increased each year since 2010. It was approved by a majority of 70.
In other words one day there is no need to increase it to restore its value and the day after a 10% rise is in order.
Clearly, Osborne is a hypocrite. |
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| Quote ="DaveO".
It is also not up to him anyway. The level is set by the low pay commission set up by Labour deliberately to remove the decision from politicians so they couldn't give it a nice rise just before a general election.'"
Excellent, so the reason that people are earning below living wage and therefore struggling to make ends meet is down to the Labour party. That's up there with the abolition of the 10p tax rate. Vote Labour, screw the poor. |
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I think it's disgusting they want to put the lowest paid workers up to £11,000 per annum.
I've managed quite comfortably on last years £3,500 jobseekers allowance.
I mean, really, what will they spend all their extra on?
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| Quote ="Ajw71"The horrible George Osborne who is generally a horrible man who likes to attack the poor and most vulnerable in society has said today he wants an above inflation rise to the minimum wage.
Cost of Living Crisis Myth.....'"
He's a man who changes his mind as often as the wind changes. Only last week he spoke out against rises.
Are there any elections coming up? |
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| Quote ="BobbyD"Excellent, so the reason that people are earning below living wage and therefore struggling to make ends meet is down to the Labour party. That's up there with the abolition of the 10p tax rate. Vote Labour, screw the poor.'"
You obviously have trouble with English. In particular just what the word "minimum" means. I'll give you a clue. The word minimum in this context means the least allowable wage. It doesn't set a limit or a maximum.
Hence your comment above is pretty moronic and not anywhere near as clever as you thought it was when you posted it. |
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| Quote ="DaveO"You obviously have trouble with English. In particular just what the word "minimum" means. I'll give you a clue. The word minimum in this context means the least allowable wage. It doesn't set a limit or a maximum.
Hence your comment above is pretty moronic and not anywhere near as clever as you thought it was when you posted it.'"
That wasn't a clue, that was the actual definition. Not just me with the problem with English it seems.
Not another Labour voter who hopes people don't remember how he/she voted to screw the poor are you?
Stiil, keep bleating about the hypocrite Osborne. |
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| Quote ="BobbyD"That wasn't a clue, that was the actual definition. Not just me with the problem with English it seems.
Not another Labour voter who hopes people don't remember how he/she voted to screw the poor are you?
Stiil, keep bleating about the hypocrite Osborne.'"
I am surprise you still want to keep digging.
The point you made was and is moronic.
Setting a minimum wage does not impose a maximum on anyone. Setting up a commission to advise what that minimum level should be, to take it out of politicians hands, is not as you said "the reason that people are earning below living wage".
You thought you were being clever but were in fact being rather stupid. |
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| Quote ="WIZEB"I think it's disgusting they want to put the lowest paid workers up to £11,000 per annum.
I've managed quite comfortably on last years £3,500 jobseekers allowance.
I mean, really, what will they spend all their extra on?'"
I believe most of your neighbours survive on root vegetables, and supplement their diet with a day out in the fields with their ferrets.
£3.5K sounds a tad generous. |
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| Quote ="rumpelstiltskin"I believe most of your neighbours survive on root vegetables, and supplement their diet with a day out in the fields with their ferrets.
£3.5K sounds a tad generous.'"
Actually, surviving on 70 notes a week is an artform.
Gas
Leccy
TV license
Water Rates
Council Tax
Mobile Phone (the Jobcentre do actually require a contact number)
Food
Clothing
It's a lifestyle choice don't you know? |
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| Quote ="WIZEB"Actually, surviving on 70 notes a week is an artform.
Gas
Leccy
TV license
Water Rates
Council Tax
Mobile Phone (the Jobcentre do actually require a contact number)
Food
Clothing
It's a lifestyle choice don't you know?'"
I think it's disgusting that you are wasting your time on these boards at the taxpayers expense, when you should be actively seeking employment.
And don't give me any of that malarkey about looking and applying for jobs on line as the reason you are joined at the hip to your internet enabled device.
Yours incandescent,
A Torytoff
(Typing from my mansion somewhere near Doncaster) |
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| Nov 2009 | 15 years | |
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| Feb 2025 | Jan 2025 | LINK |
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| Quote ="rumpelstiltskin"I believe most of your neighbours survive on [uroot vegetables[/u, and supplement their diet with a day out in the fields with their ferrets.
'"
I you not.
Just been down my mates allotment and got given sprouts, cabbage (ajw variety) parsnips and a swede.
Also spuds and onions that he had stored from earlier this year at home.
Slow cooker, beef casserole looks the way forward. |
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| Rank | Posts | Team |
| Player Coach | 12755 | No
Team
Selected |
| Joined | Service | Reputation |
| Nov 2009 | 15 years | |
| Online | Last Post | Last Page |
| Feb 2025 | Jan 2025 | LINK |
| Milestone Posts |
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| Milestone Years |
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| Location |
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| Signature |
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TO BE FIXED |
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| Quote ="Stand-Offish"
A Torytoff
(Typing from my mansion somewhere near Doncaster)'"
Do they have mansions somewhere near Doncaster?
I'm impressed. |
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'"
This should be a dictionary definition of grasping at straws! 
