|
|
Rank | Posts | Team |
Club Owner | 17898 | No Team Selected |
Joined | Service | Reputation |
Oct 2003 | 21 years | |
Online | Last Post | Last Page |
Mar 2020 | Aug 2019 | LINK |
Milestone Posts |
|
Milestone Years |
|
Location |
|
Signature |
TO BE FIXED |
|
| Quote ="cod'ead"Yes it can'"
In the same way it was changed to fixed term parliaments after the last election you mean?
|
|
|
Rank | Posts | Team |
Moderator | 14395 | No Team Selected |
Joined | Service | Reputation |
Dec 2001 | 23 years | |
Online | Last Post | Last Page |
May 2024 | May 2022 | LINK |
Milestone Posts |
|
Milestone Years |
|
Location |
|
Signature |
TO BE FIXED |
Moderator
|
| Quote ="LeagueDweeb"
40 less Labour MP's last time would have meant a Conservative government. Going forward, this is a huge problem for the Labour party, which is why, apart from his recent visit, Cameron has been happy for them to do all the work for the Better Together campaign.'"
It rarely has been in the past. I think it is only one, possibly two past Labour victories have relied on the Scottish MP's.
It has also worked the other way. Scotland returned 22 Tory MP's in 1979 and in Major v Kinnock election it returned 11 when Major won with a majority of 21. Had Scotland been as solid Labour as you imply Major would have lost that election. Scotland until recently has never been a shoe in for Labour.
|
|
|
|
Rank | Posts | Team |
Player Coach | 362 | No Team Selected |
Joined | Service | Reputation |
Aug 2008 | 16 years | |
Online | Last Post | Last Page |
Feb 2016 | Feb 2016 | LINK |
Milestone Posts |
|
Milestone Years |
|
Location |
|
Signature |
TO BE FIXED |
|
| Quote ="WIZEB"They have one serving MP returned to Westminster from the 2010 General Election!'"
The difference in this referendum is that each vote counts equally.
May 2010 general election in Scotland
Conservatives - 412,855 votes = 1 seat
Lib Dems - 465,471 votes = 11 seats
SNP - 491,386 votes = 6 seats
Labour -1,035,528 votes = 41 seats
Hardly fair but there you go. So Salmond's SNP only represents about half of those that voted for the present government yet he continues to go on about independence guaranteeing a change in direction.
If this referendum had only included the above voters then the NOs would have won hands down. However this time there are another 1.9 million who have registered to vote including many school kids aged 16 and over and many adults who are not political and could be voting just emotionally with the heart not the head which is why this could be on a knife edge. Because the pollsters have no similar history to compare they are as much in the dark about the result as the rest of us.
|
|
|
Rank | Posts | Team |
International Chairman | 14970 | No Team Selected |
Joined | Service | Reputation |
Jun 2002 | 23 years | |
Online | Last Post | Last Page |
Nov 2021 | Nov 2021 | LINK |
Milestone Posts |
|
Milestone Years |
|
Location |
|
Signature |
TO BE FIXED |
|
| Isn't it fairly simple in the case of a Yes vote? There's a 2015 UK General Election as normal. Then whenever Scotland actually becomes independent the Scottish MP's no longer are MP's as they have no constituency. So they are removed from a Parliament and you're left with what remains.
Might be tricky if it's a Labour government elected in 2015 who's majority is reliant on Scottish MP's but the parliament can still be dissolved and another election called if necessary.
|
|
|
Rank | Posts | Team |
Moderator | 14395 | No Team Selected |
Joined | Service | Reputation |
Dec 2001 | 23 years | |
Online | Last Post | Last Page |
May 2024 | May 2022 | LINK |
Milestone Posts |
|
Milestone Years |
|
Location |
|
Signature |
TO BE FIXED |
Moderator
|
| Quote ="cod'ead"Any Scots who think Salmond is a socialist are in for a very rude awakening.
He views TTIP as a "massive opportunity for Scotland", all they need do is look at how he bent over while Donald Trump dry-bummed him. He's already been called out over his lies on safeguarding the NHS.
Wee Eck is an obnoxious little upstart but I can't blame Scots for swallowing his rhetoric, we've got plenty South of the border who are falling for Farage's bollox too'"
[url=http://wakeupscotland.wordpress.com/2014/09/15/ewan-morrison-yes-why-i-joined-yes-and-why-i-changed-to-no/There is a very good article here[/url that offers an opinion on what will happen in Scotland if there is a yes vote.
Most people voting Yes have no idea what it will bring them because the Yes campaign have kept it so vague. It is basically a "jam tomorrow" message.
The alliance of disparate groups for Yes often put forward as a positive thing by the Yes side tells you there are going to be some VERY disillusioned Yes voters very quickly. As the article I linked to points out you have the Socialist Workers Party (who want a socialist utopia) in bed with Business for Scotland (who will want everything the Tories in the UK want) and the Greens (anti-fossil fuel) alongside the SNP (who want to extract as much oil as possible).
Yet the message has been, vote Yes, ditch the Tories and voila a new socially responsible Scottish state will emerge.
This is just not going to happen. There is going to be same political fighting in Scotland as there is in every other western country.
Some nationalists will argue that is fine because whatever the outcome it will have been Scotland not Westminster that decided it but that is not what has been promised.
|
|
|
|
Rank | Posts | Team |
Player Coach | 362 | No Team Selected |
Joined | Service | Reputation |
Aug 2008 | 16 years | |
Online | Last Post | Last Page |
Feb 2016 | Feb 2016 | LINK |
Milestone Posts |
|
Milestone Years |
|
Location |
|
Signature |
TO BE FIXED |
|
| Quote ="DaveO"It rarely has been in the past. I think it is only one, possibly two past Labour victories have relied on the Scottish MP's.
'"
Three actually 1964, 1974 & 2010
|
|
|
Rank | Posts | Team |
Moderator | 14395 | No Team Selected |
Joined | Service | Reputation |
Dec 2001 | 23 years | |
Online | Last Post | Last Page |
May 2024 | May 2022 | LINK |
Milestone Posts |
|
Milestone Years |
|
Location |
|
Signature |
TO BE FIXED |
Moderator
|
| Quote ="Him"Isn't it fairly simple in the case of a Yes vote? There's a 2015 UK General Election as normal. Then whenever Scotland actually becomes independent the Scottish MP's no longer are MP's as they have no constituency. So they are removed from a Parliament and you're left with what remains.
Might be tricky if it's a Labour government elected in 2015 who's majority is reliant on Scottish MP's but the parliament can still be dissolved and another election called if necessary.'"
I would have thought so. In any case I think the timetable for independence occurring is ludicrously optimistic in my opinion at around 18 months so it would be quite feasible for that to go out to four or five years. So a UK election could be called to coincide with the break up of the UK.
It would also be interesting to see what happens with constituencies in England, Wales and NI. The Tories had this bonkers idea to make them 100K voters in size based on who was [iregistered to vote[/i, not the population which would have meant some geographically huge constituencies. I think there will be calls for a redrawing of boundaries rather than just the rest of the UK going with the simple idea of just ditching the Scottish MP's.
|
|
|
Rank | Posts | Team |
Moderator | 14395 | No Team Selected |
Joined | Service | Reputation |
Dec 2001 | 23 years | |
Online | Last Post | Last Page |
May 2024 | May 2022 | LINK |
Milestone Posts |
|
Milestone Years |
|
Location |
|
Signature |
TO BE FIXED |
Moderator
|
| Quote ="Lord Elpers"Three actually 1964, 1974 & 2010'"
2010? Labour didn't win in 2010!
|
|
|
|
Rank | Posts | Team |
Player Coach | 362 | No Team Selected |
Joined | Service | Reputation |
Aug 2008 | 16 years | |
Online | Last Post | Last Page |
Feb 2016 | Feb 2016 | LINK |
Milestone Posts |
|
Milestone Years |
|
Location |
|
Signature |
TO BE FIXED |
|
| Quote ="DaveO"2010? Labour didn't win in 2010!'"
True of course but in 2010 Cameron's Tories would have had an overall majority so the election results would have been different without Scottish seats which shows the importance if Labour were to lose these.
Even with a win for the Union it is most likely that the give aways promised in the DevoMax2 will bring an unstoppable demand for change in the rest of the UK with an increasing possibility of an English Parliament with the West Lothian question finally being resolved.
|
|
|
Rank | Posts | Team |
International Star | 3605 | No Team Selected |
Joined | Service | Reputation |
Jul 2012 | 13 years | |
Online | Last Post | Last Page |
May 2016 | May 2016 | LINK |
Milestone Posts |
|
Milestone Years |
|
Location |
|
Signature |
TO BE FIXED |
|
| Quote ="LeagueDweeb"We have a fixed term Parliament. That cannot be changed.'"
What is perfectly clear now about the whole Scottish devolution vote is that none of the political party's seem to have considered what may happen if the Scots vote Yes, hence the panic emanating from Westminster last week with not so carefully leaked reports that "senior" MPs were "investigating" how the 2015 general election could be postponed until Scotland is totally devolved - they were still working on Salmonds target of 2016 - this is but one of many press reports from last week that you may have missed [urlhttp://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/03/calls-to-postpone-uk-general-election-scots-independence[/url
However, as with all things in this poll, nothing is planned, nothing is formalised, nothing has been considered, it looks like it could be the biggest cock-up in civil service history if they vote Yes.
|
|
|
Rank | Posts | Team |
International Star | 322 | No Team Selected |
Joined | Service | Reputation |
May 2014 | 11 years | |
Online | Last Post | Last Page |
Sep 2014 | Sep 2014 | LINK |
Milestone Posts |
|
Milestone Years |
|
Location |
|
Signature |
TO BE FIXED |
|
| Quote ="JerryChicken"What is perfectly clear now about the whole Scottish devolution vote is that none of the political party's seem to have considered what may happen if the Scots vote Yes, hence the panic emanating from Westminster last week with not so carefully leaked reports that "senior" MPs were "investigating" how the 2015 general election could be postponed until Scotland is totally devolved - they were still working on Salmonds target of 2016 - this is but one of many press reports from last week that you may have missed [urlhttp://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/03/calls-to-postpone-uk-general-election-scots-independence[/url
However, as with all things in this poll, nothing is planned, nothing is formalised, nothing has been considered, it looks like it could be the biggest cock-up in civil service history if they vote Yes.'"
The 2011 Parliament Act does not permit the changing of an election date from the fixed five year term. Parliament can be dissolved early, but not extended.
|
|
|
|
Rank | Posts | Team |
International Star | 322 | No Team Selected |
Joined | Service | Reputation |
May 2014 | 11 years | |
Online | Last Post | Last Page |
Sep 2014 | Sep 2014 | LINK |
Milestone Posts |
|
Milestone Years |
|
Location |
|
Signature |
TO BE FIXED |
|
| Quote ="cod'ead"Yes it can'"
By what means?
|
|
|
Rank | Posts | Team |
International Star | 322 | No Team Selected |
Joined | Service | Reputation |
May 2014 | 11 years | |
Online | Last Post | Last Page |
Sep 2014 | Sep 2014 | LINK |
Milestone Posts |
|
Milestone Years |
|
Location |
|
Signature |
TO BE FIXED |
|
| Quote ="Lord Elpers"True of course but in 2010 Cameron's Tories would have had an overall majority so the election results would have been different without Scottish seats which shows the importance if Labour were to lose these.
Even with a win for the Union it is most likely that the give aways promised in the DevoMax2 will bring an unstoppable demand for change in the rest of the UK with an increasing possibility of an English Parliament with the West Lothian question finally being resolved.'"
All future elections without Scottish MP's would be much closer. The number of MP's needed for a majority would rop from 326 to 296. A drop of 30, with Labour having 40 in Scotland.
If the Scots were to go, the Welsh might well look to follow suit.
Even with a No vote or greater devolution, the West Lothian question will likely remain unanswered. Were Labour to win in 2015, it would be completely ignored.
If the Tories were to win, their support for the Union would make it equally unlikely anything would be done.
The question is even more fertile ground for UKIP, who I am sure will exploit it in the lead up to May 2015
|
|
|
Rank | Posts | Team |
International Chairman | 28357 | No Team Selected |
Joined | Service | Reputation |
Feb 2002 | 23 years | |
Online | Last Post | Last Page |
May 2024 | Oct 2019 | LINK |
Milestone Posts |
|
Milestone Years |
|
Location |
|
Signature |
TO BE FIXED |
|
| Quote ="JerryChicken"...
However, as with all things in this poll, nothing is planned, nothing is formalised, nothing has been considered, it looks like it could be the biggest cock-up in civil service history if they vote Yes.'"
I wouldn't worry, they proved in Iraq that they can quickly implement a full national plan, in no time at all, to universal acclaim.
As ever though, the bookies tell you what you need to know, the No vote is miles odds-on now, and shortening so the masterplan isn't required.
|
|
|
Rank | Posts | Team |
International Star | 322 | No Team Selected |
Joined | Service | Reputation |
May 2014 | 11 years | |
Online | Last Post | Last Page |
Sep 2014 | Sep 2014 | LINK |
Milestone Posts |
|
Milestone Years |
|
Location |
|
Signature |
TO BE FIXED |
|
| Quote ="Lord Elpers"The difference in this referendum is that each vote counts equally.
May 2010 general election in Scotland
Conservatives - 412,855 votes = 1 seat
Lib Dems - 465,471 votes = 11 seats
SNP - 491,386 votes = 6 seats
Labour -1,035,528 votes = 41 seats
Hardly fair but there you go. So Salmond's SNP only represents about half of those that voted for the present government yet he continues to go on about independence guaranteeing a change in direction.
If this referendum had only included the above voters then the NOs would have won hands down. However this time there are another 1.9 million who have registered to vote including many school kids aged 16 and over and many adults who are not political and could be voting just emotionally with the heart not the head which is why this could be on a knife edge. Because the pollsters have no similar history to compare they are as much in the dark about the result as the rest of us.'"
That 2010 General election vote doesn't mirror the 2011 Scottish vote, so it tells us nothing.
What it does tell us is why Labour didn't want boundary changes so that constituencies had an equal number of voters.
|
|
|
Rank | Posts | Team |
International Chairman | 6038 | No Team Selected |
Joined | Service | Reputation |
Apr 2002 | 23 years | |
Online | Last Post | Last Page |
Mar 2017 | Feb 2017 | LINK |
Milestone Posts |
|
Milestone Years |
|
Location |
|
Signature |
TO BE FIXED |
|
| Quote ="LeagueDweeb"That 2010 General election vote doesn't mirror the 2011 Scottish vote, so it tells us nothing.
What it does tell us is why Labour didn't want boundary changes so that constituencies had an equal number of voters.'"
It does tell us something. It tells us that the Scots are happy to change how they vote depending on the nature of the election. Which might mean that the pollsters have got their opinion polls all to cock.
|
|
|
Rank | Posts | Team |
International Star | 322 | No Team Selected |
Joined | Service | Reputation |
May 2014 | 11 years | |
Online | Last Post | Last Page |
Sep 2014 | Sep 2014 | LINK |
Milestone Posts |
|
Milestone Years |
|
Location |
|
Signature |
TO BE FIXED |
|
| Quote ="Cibaman"It does tell us something. It tells us that the Scots are happy to change how they vote depending on the nature of the election. Which might mean that the pollsters have got their opinion polls all to cock.'"
My comment was relating to the use of the 2010 general election result being some sort of guide for the level of support for the SNP, which I then qualified by pointing at the Scottish election.
Voting at local & national level often does change, nothing new there.
|
|
|
Rank | Posts | Team |
International Star | 3605 | No Team Selected |
Joined | Service | Reputation |
Jul 2012 | 13 years | |
Online | Last Post | Last Page |
May 2016 | May 2016 | LINK |
Milestone Posts |
|
Milestone Years |
|
Location |
|
Signature |
TO BE FIXED |
|
| Quote ="LeagueDweeb"The 2011 Parliament Act does not permit the changing of an election date from the fixed five year term. Parliament can be dissolved early, but not extended.'"
You need to read the article and the many others that are available, it would take an Act of Parliament but it took an Act of Parliament to establish the rule in the first place, its not like they don't know how to do it or that it would be impossible to do.
The fact that they were leaking the information to the press last week shows how hard they have hit the panic button, I'm guessing that there is a Prime Minister somewhere in this land who won't sleep a wink tonight.
|
|
|
Rank | Posts | Team |
International Chairman | 26578 | No Team Selected |
Joined | Service | Reputation |
Mar 2002 | 23 years | |
Online | Last Post | Last Page |
Jul 2017 | Apr 2017 | LINK |
Milestone Posts |
|
Milestone Years |
|
Location |
|
Signature |
TO BE FIXED |
|
| Quote ="Lord Elpers"Three actually 1964, 1974 & 2010'"
Did I miss something?
|
|
|
Rank | Posts | Team |
International Chairman | 26578 | No Team Selected |
Joined | Service | Reputation |
Mar 2002 | 23 years | |
Online | Last Post | Last Page |
Jul 2017 | Apr 2017 | LINK |
Milestone Posts |
|
Milestone Years |
|
Location |
|
Signature |
TO BE FIXED |
|
| Quote ="LeagueDweeb"The 2011 Parliament Act does not permit the changing of an election date from the fixed five year term. Parliament can be dissolved early, but not extended.'"
And Acts of Parliament can be amended...
|
|
|
Rank | Posts | Team |
International Chairman | 6038 | No Team Selected |
Joined | Service | Reputation |
Apr 2002 | 23 years | |
Online | Last Post | Last Page |
Mar 2017 | Feb 2017 | LINK |
Milestone Posts |
|
Milestone Years |
|
Location |
|
Signature |
TO BE FIXED |
|
| Quote ="LeagueDweeb"My comment was relating to the use of the 2010 general election result being some sort of guide for the level of support for the SNP, which I then qualified by pointing at the Scottish election.
Voting at local & national level often does change, nothing new there.'"
My point was that the pollsters are using the 2011 Scottish election results as the baseline for their referendum polling samples, as of course there are no previous referendum results to use. Which inevitably introduces a greater margin of error in the results. It might not be as close as is being predicted.
|
|
|
Rank | Posts | Team |
Club Owner | 17898 | No Team Selected |
Joined | Service | Reputation |
Oct 2003 | 21 years | |
Online | Last Post | Last Page |
Mar 2020 | Aug 2019 | LINK |
Milestone Posts |
|
Milestone Years |
|
Location |
|
Signature |
TO BE FIXED |
|
| Quote ="Big Graeme"And Acts of Parliament can be amended...'"
Just because you say it can, doesn't mean it can...
|
|
|
Rank | Posts | Team |
International Chairman | 26578 | No Team Selected |
Joined | Service | Reputation |
Mar 2002 | 23 years | |
Online | Last Post | Last Page |
Jul 2017 | Apr 2017 | LINK |
Milestone Posts |
|
Milestone Years |
|
Location |
|
Signature |
TO BE FIXED |
|
| Quote ="LeagueDweeb"My comment was relating to the use of the 2010 general election result being some sort of guide for the level of support for the SNP, which I then qualified by pointing at the Scottish election.
Voting at local & national level often does change, nothing new there.'"
I'd be a little careful making assumptions on polling methods if I were you, a previous poster made an are of himself on opinion polls
|
|
|
Rank | Posts | Team |
International Chairman | 679 | No Team Selected |
Joined | Service | Reputation |
Dec 2001 | 23 years | |
Online | Last Post | Last Page |
Sep 2016 | Sep 2016 | LINK |
Milestone Posts |
|
Milestone Years |
|
Location |
|
Signature |
TO BE FIXED |
|
| With the declaration of Fife at 06:10, the result is a win for the no campaign
|
|
|
Rank | Posts | Team |
International Star | 322 | No Team Selected |
Joined | Service | Reputation |
May 2014 | 11 years | |
Online | Last Post | Last Page |
Sep 2014 | Sep 2014 | LINK |
Milestone Posts |
|
Milestone Years |
|
Location |
|
Signature |
TO BE FIXED |
|
| Quote ="JerryChicken"You need to read the article and the many others that are available, it would take an Act of Parliament but it took an Act of Parliament to establish the rule in the first place, its not like they don't know how to do it or that it would be impossible to do.
The fact that they were leaking the information to the press last week shows how hard they have hit the panic button, I'm guessing that there is a Prime Minister somewhere in this land who won't sleep a wink tonight.'"
The 2011 Parliament Act cannot be changed or amended until at least 2020, when there will be an analysis of how it has worked sine it was introduced.
It would be constitutionally & logistically impossible to get any Bill through Parliament before the 2015 GE.
|
|
|
|
|