Well you have to attack the Govt. somehow don't you.

'there is no recovery'......'it's the wrong type of recovery'



You've been wrong before. You're wrong again.

A slight upturn in a very much self-induced downturn, is certainly no cause for celebration

He actually wrote ' its just not going to pick up that much if at all' which is pretty much bang on as it hasn't picked up much sweetheart.

Once again, you have failed to actually present any genuine evidence.
We are still below where we were before the election.
You remind me of the Thatcher administration who increased VAT (and, consequently, increased inflation) and then a year later, when that self-created inflation figure dropped out of the annual comparison, said that it showed they were beating inflation.




Merely saying so doesn't make it true.

Thank you for proving I am right.

This "....its just [unot going to pick up that much[/u if at all between now and the election so they won't have much success to point to." Is 100% correct because contrary to be what appears to be your position that we are booming it has [inot picked up that much at all[/i!

And by the way if you are so convinced of this governments economic prowess is Osborne going to eradicate the structural deficit by 2015 as promised? Not even close.

You are wrong too.

On Friday 25 January 2013:



What happened to the triple dip that even a blind man could see coming? We didn't even have a double dip!



Oh dear, maybe you should buy yourself a new crystal ball.

Rubbish.

0.7% growth in the last quarter and a trend of growth. 1% in two quarters.

What are you going to do when the economy grows again in the next quarter? Bury your head in the sand and continue your anti-tory rubbish because you can't bear giving them any credit?

That would be like celebrating Harold Shipman because he once tried to resucitate one of his victims.

get real daft lad

Labour are very worried now the economy is improving so I know why you are upset. Nevermind carry on being bitter, like I said, lefties would rather the economy tanked than it improve under the guidance of a tory chancellor. Carry on pretending you care about the poor and the hardworking - it just doesn't wash.

It was the tories and their chums who tanked the economy in the first place. In 2010 they took over a growing economy with improving job figures and systematically destroyed the stimulus

The GDP growth trend has been going down since mid 2010, both quarterly and annually.
Job vacancies are roughly 20% lower than pre-crash
The unemployment rate is roughly 30% higher than pre-crash
Government debt to GDP has risen from 80% to 90.7% since the election
Government spending has risen by 10% pre-crash, around 7% since the election and 5% in the first 2 quarters of 2013.
Business confidence is 3 times lower than at the time of the election.
Industrial production growth is 3 times lower than at the time of the election.
Bankruptcies are roughly 30% higher than pre crash
Personal savings are roughly 40% lower than at the time of the election.
The economy is still roughly 15% smaller than it was pre-crash.

Yeah ... but we got some minuscule growth in GDP last quarter... Ha ! ... proof that Osborne's a genius !

You're both right and you're both wrong. I think it depends where you are on the 'social ladder' and whether you're a banker or not.

In the building industry, it has improved ever so slightly over the past 2/3 months, but nothing to get the bunting out for, which is the same in most industries.

If you're a fat cat banker, the government keeps printing you more money and giving you free loans that you can do what ever you like with.

The current financial policy of this government seems to be that if you're well off and a typical Conservative party supporter, you are well benefitted. If you're not well off but still consider yourself as a Conservative party supporter, your blind faith to follow your party makes you believe all of their statistics and soundbites. You therefore believe that the economy is booming.

If your a labour party support the opposite happens except you have to try and defend the reason we're in this mess to begin with and try and believe that if Ed was in charge it would all be hunky-dory.

If you're a Liberal Democrat supporter, you're still trying to clean the shoe polish from your lips and pull the last object David Cameron shoved up your backside.

Other more right or left wing parties are too busy running around hugging trees and demonstrating about being xenophobic to worry about the economy.

And then there is everyone else who can see some good and some bad. Overall it is pretty stagnant with a slight improvement over the past 6 months. I think the banks could still get their way and create another bubble, but we seem to be staving it off so far.

Which economy?

Exactly. You have to take the whole picture into account. We aren't growing fast enough and the Government can't cut deep enough to deal with the deficit. They keep borrowing more. 0.7% growth means if Osborne could even use his idea of 80% cuts and 20% tax rises to deal with this he'd have to raise something like £6bn in taxes after 2015.

He says he won't raise taxes so either he is out to bankrupt the country by brushing the problems under the carpet or we are in for serious cuts to even so called ring fenced areas like the NHS.

Where are you getting these statistics from?!

Quote ="DaveO"Exactly. You have to take the whole picture into account. We aren't growing fast enough and the Government can't cut deep enough to deal with the deficit. They keep borrowing more. 0.7% growth means if Osborne could even use his idea of 80% cuts and 20% tax rises to deal with this he'd have to raise something like £6bn in taxes after 2015. '" www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23893789 Recovery is gaining momentum according to the British Chamber of Commerce. "The business lobby group now expects 1.3% growth this year, up from 0.9%. Its forecasts for the next two years were upped to 2.2% and 2.5%." But you still believe 'it's not going to pick up much before the election'?

Quote ="DaveO"Exactly. You have to take the whole picture into account. We aren't growing fast enough and the Government can't cut deep enough to deal with the deficit. They keep borrowing more. 0.7% growth means if Osborne could even use his idea of 80% cuts and 20% tax rises to deal with this he'd have to raise something like £6bn in taxes after 2015. '" www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23893789 Recovery is gaining momentum according to the British Chamber of Commerce. "The business lobby group now expects 1.3% growth this year, up from 0.9%. Its forecasts for the next two years were upped to 2.2% and 2.5%." But you still believe 'it's not going to pick up much before the election'?

Growth will start to happen when people start to spend more money on non-essential items.

People will start to spend more money on non-essential items when their earnings increase or when they feel more confident that their earnings aren't going to be devalued by rising prices, not all of which seem to be reflected in the inflation figures - there is a deal of mysticism in this element of "feel good".

People will only earn more money when overtime and bonuses and *shudder* pay increases become available again, and there is a huge amount of slack to be taken up here.

Fixed term contracts, part time contracts, limited or no hours contracts do not contribute to "feel good" and are a sign that the boot is on the employers foot, when a time returns when an employee can walk out of a job and be confident that they will find better terms elsewhere - THAT is a "feel good" moment.


Until such times return then the economy will recover in exactly the manner that is predicted by the current Governor of the BoE and by his predecessor, that is very slowly and over a period of many years, possibly at least two terms of government office - such is the slack to be taken up.


The lesson to be learned is not to listen to politicians and their flag waving, chest beating party member pleasing antics, but you probably don't want to hear that.

Through a couple of websites that show the data from official sources.

GDP growth trend - ONS
Job vacancies - ONS
Unemployment rate - ONS
Government debt to GDP - Eurostat
Government spending - ONS
Business confidence - CBI
Industrial production - ONS
Bankruptcies - ONS
Personal savings - ONS
Economy - The World Bank Group

ie NOT Wikipedia

WHICH ECONOMY??????????

Quote ="Him"Through a couple of websites that show the data from official sources. GDP growth trend - ONS Job vacancies - ONS Unemployment rate - ONS Government debt to GDP - Eurostat Government spending - ONS Business confidence - CBI Industrial production - ONS Bankruptcies - ONS Personal savings - ONS Economy - The World Bank Group ie NOT Wikipedia'" You are looking for negatives, hence the reason why you keep referring to pre-crash levels. Since the economy contracted so sharply during this time it's totally unfair to set pre crash levels as a comparison. But why not have a look at some stats from the last few months. Most of them show a positive trend and with growth increasing hopefully other indicators will take care of themselves. Growth Trend - well the last 2 quarters have seen growth and we are forecast growth for Q3. so the trend is definitely not down. Job Vacancies - unemployment is reducing (albeit slowly). The British Chamber of Commerce forecasts unemployment to drop. Inflation is steady - down last month. Debt to GDP - well numerous websites reported it was 74.5% last week when the revised growth figures were released Business Confidence - rising according to Grant Thornton's reports and the CBI www.icaew.com/en/about-icaew/wha ... ce-monitor www.cbi.org.uk/media-centre/pres ... ector-cbi/ Manufacturing doing well - www.cbi.org.uk/media-centre/pres ... bi-survey/ I could go on. Give me some of your ONS stats for the last 6 months and then tell me the economy isn't improving.

Quote ="Him"Through a couple of websites that show the data from official sources. GDP growth trend - ONS Job vacancies - ONS Unemployment rate - ONS Government debt to GDP - Eurostat Government spending - ONS Business confidence - CBI Industrial production - ONS Bankruptcies - ONS Personal savings - ONS Economy - The World Bank Group ie NOT Wikipedia'" You are looking for negatives, hence the reason why you keep referring to pre-crash levels. Since the economy contracted so sharply during this time it's totally unfair to set pre crash levels as a comparison. But why not have a look at some stats from the last few months. Most of them show a positive trend and with growth increasing hopefully other indicators will take care of themselves. Growth Trend - well the last 2 quarters have seen growth and we are forecast growth for Q3. so the trend is definitely not down. Job Vacancies - unemployment is reducing (albeit slowly). The British Chamber of Commerce forecasts unemployment to drop. Inflation is steady - down last month. Debt to GDP - well numerous websites reported it was 74.5% last week when the revised growth figures were released Business Confidence - rising according to Grant Thornton's reports and the CBI www.icaew.com/en/about-icaew/wha ... ce-monitor www.cbi.org.uk/media-centre/pres ... ector-cbi/ Manufacturing doing well - www.cbi.org.uk/media-centre/pres ... bi-survey/ I could go on. Give me some of your ONS stats for the last 6 months and then tell me the economy isn't improving.

Quote ="Ajw71"You are looking for negatives, hence the reason why you keep referring to pre-crash levels. Since the economy contracted so sharply during this time it's totally unfair to set pre crash levels as a comparison. But why not have a look at some stats from the last few months. Most of them show a positive trend and with growth increasing hopefully other indicators will take care of themselves. Growth Trend - well the last 2 quarters have seen growth and we are forecast growth for Q3. so the trend is definitely not down. Job Vacancies - unemployment is reducing (albeit slowly). The British Chamber of Commerce forecasts unemployment to drop. Inflation is steady - down last month. Debt to GDP - well numerous websites reported it was 74.5% last week when the revised growth figures were released Business Confidence - rising according to Grant Thornton's reports and the CBI www.icaew.com/en/about-icaew/wha ... ce-monitor www.cbi.org.uk/media-centre/pres ... ector-cbi/ Manufacturing doing well - www.cbi.org.uk/media-centre/pres ... bi-survey/ I could go on. Give me some of your ONS stats for the last 6 months and then tell me the economy isn't improving.'" I'm sorry I thought you were suggesting things were good and the economy was recovering? It's not. Not yet. 2 quarters is not enough of a time frame to judge the economy on because different quarters of the year have different characteristics. When you add in the 5% increase in government spending during those quarters it's hardly surprising that the economy has grown. Isn't it a shame that when Osborne came in he cut spending, maybe the economy would be well in recovery by now. Now since you can't dispute the facts I posted and you can't dispute the official sources they came from, what ridiculous, Wikipedia-looked-up excuse will you come up with next? Don't try and pretend you know about economics, you're out of your depth on this board.

Quote ="Ajw71"You are looking for negatives, hence the reason why you keep referring to pre-crash levels. Since the economy contracted so sharply during this time it's totally unfair to set pre crash levels as a comparison. But why not have a look at some stats from the last few months. Most of them show a positive trend and with growth increasing hopefully other indicators will take care of themselves. Growth Trend - well the last 2 quarters have seen growth and we are forecast growth for Q3. so the trend is definitely not down. Job Vacancies - unemployment is reducing (albeit slowly). The British Chamber of Commerce forecasts unemployment to drop. Inflation is steady - down last month. Debt to GDP - well numerous websites reported it was 74.5% last week when the revised growth figures were released Business Confidence - rising according to Grant Thornton's reports and the CBI www.icaew.com/en/about-icaew/wha ... ce-monitor www.cbi.org.uk/media-centre/pres ... ector-cbi/ Manufacturing doing well - www.cbi.org.uk/media-centre/pres ... bi-survey/ I could go on. Give me some of your ONS stats for the last 6 months and then tell me the economy isn't improving.'" I'm sorry I thought you were suggesting things were good and the economy was recovering? It's not. Not yet. 2 quarters is not enough of a time frame to judge the economy on because different quarters of the year have different characteristics. When you add in the 5% increase in government spending during those quarters it's hardly surprising that the economy has grown. Isn't it a shame that when Osborne came in he cut spending, maybe the economy would be well in recovery by now. Now since you can't dispute the facts I posted and you can't dispute the official sources they came from, what ridiculous, Wikipedia-looked-up excuse will you come up with next? Don't try and pretend you know about economics, you're out of your depth on this board.

Quote ="Him"I'm sorry I thought you were suggesting things were good and the economy was recovering? It's not. Not yet. '" But the British Chamber of Commerce and Mark Carney disagree with you and the statistics from the last six months that you won't publish suggest otherwise. www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23893789 But no, no you are right and the people in the know are in the wrong. Arrogance in the extreme. Quote ="Him" Now since you can't dispute the facts I posted and you can't dispute the official sources they came from, what ridiculous, Wikipedia-looked-up excuse will you come up with next? '" Erm, I just did.

Quote ="Him"I'm sorry I thought you were suggesting things were good and the economy was recovering? It's not. Not yet. '" But the British Chamber of Commerce and Mark Carney disagree with you and the statistics from the last six months that you won't publish suggest otherwise. www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23893789 But no, no you are right and the people in the know are in the wrong. Arrogance in the extreme. Quote ="Him" Now since you can't dispute the facts I posted and you can't dispute the official sources they came from, what ridiculous, Wikipedia-looked-up excuse will you come up with next? '" Erm, I just did.

This quote is your reply to DaveO's post about the deficit and Osborne's failure to do what he said about it and also Osborne's inability to eliminate it in the future using his rule about 80% from cuts and 20% from tax. (n.b. When Osborne talks about the timetable for deficit reduction, the date for its elimination is ALWAYS five years away, it was 5yrs at the time of the election, has been 5 yrs in every one of his predictions since and still remains at 5 yrs-from-now).
And your reply is to quote how cheerful the lobby group of the British Chamber of Commerce is about growth?


Quite apart from the BCC being about as useful as a chocolate teapot when it comes to economic forecasting, you have missed the point, which is that Osborne wants to eliminate the deficit 80% by cuts (i.e. Cuts, nothing to do with growth) and only 20% by taxation (which is governed by growth) ... hence, your reply to DaveO's post is barely relevant at all to what he said.

In another post, you mention how growth is forecast to increase.


I'm assuming you are talking about HM Treasury forecasts which a) Haven't got it right for years b) Have [ualways[/u been revised negatively in the last few years and c) Have even recently predicted +ve growth when we actually got -ve.
Can you tell me please, what has changed at the Treasury such that we can now trust their growth forecasts?
Or did you mean the British Chambers of Commerce again?

Quote ="Ajw71"But the British Chamber of Commerce and Mark Carney disagree with you and the statistics from the last six months that you won't publish suggest otherwise. www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23893789 But no, no you are right and the people in the know are in the wrong. Arrogance in the extreme. Erm, I just did.'" Where in that article do the British Chamber of Commerce and Mark Carney say that the economy is good or in full recovery mode? They don't. What the BCC do say is that the current situation isn't secure. You don't know what you're talking about. Did you? Which facts I posted do you dispute or which official sources do you dispute then? Or are you so out of your depth you haven't got a clue?

Quote ="Ajw71"But the British Chamber of Commerce and Mark Carney disagree with you and the statistics from the last six months that you won't publish suggest otherwise. www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23893789 But no, no you are right and the people in the know are in the wrong. Arrogance in the extreme. Erm, I just did.'" Where in that article do the British Chamber of Commerce and Mark Carney say that the economy is good or in full recovery mode? They don't. What the BCC do say is that the current situation isn't secure. You don't know what you're talking about. Did you? Which facts I posted do you dispute or which official sources do you dispute then? Or are you so out of your depth you haven't got a clue?