The 19th July is being called "freedom day", with the Government looking like it will end all covid restrictions.
Is it "about time" or "too soon".
There is little doubt that the vaccine program has been a huge success so far and despite numbers starting to increase rapidly (again), this doesn't appear to be translating into huge numbers of hospitalisations and more importantly, the number of deaths is currently very small indeed.
There is little doubt that things should open up some more. However, on the basis that the changes are supposedly "irreversible", are we going to see another covid wave ?
We certainly look set to find out.

Think a lot of people will be still holding back after "freedom day". I for one aren't that keen on testing the level of efficacy of my vaccination in a crowded pub, gig or RL stand. While numbers in hospital aren't going up at the rate they were pre-vaccine they are still going up. https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details ... -map/cases In Yorks and Humber the numbers in hospital with it have gone up by a factor of 4 in the past month. That's with the remaining mitigations in place like face coverings, reduced capacities in shops etc. Compare that with the beginning of the last wave - 5th Sept to 5 Oct 2020 when the numbers in hospital with it when up by a factor of 7.5 with the same mitigations. Clearly vaccinations keep the numbers of seriously ill people down. The question is, if we remove all mitigations what will be the impact? Even the best modelling isn't going to be completely right.

Think a lot of people will be still holding back after "freedom day". I for one aren't that keen on testing the level of efficacy of my vaccination in a crowded pub, gig or RL stand. While numbers in hospital aren't going up at the rate they were pre-vaccine they are still going up. https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details ... -map/cases In Yorks and Humber the numbers in hospital with it have gone up by a factor of 4 in the past month. That's with the remaining mitigations in place like face coverings, reduced capacities in shops etc. Compare that with the beginning of the last wave - 5th Sept to 5 Oct 2020 when the numbers in hospital with it when up by a factor of 7.5 with the same mitigations. Clearly vaccinations keep the numbers of seriously ill people down. The question is, if we remove all mitigations what will be the impact? Even the best modelling isn't going to be completely right.

It seems Sajid Javid is the new variant.

I think Boris makes a valid point - it is the summer and kids are not in school - if you don't do it now it will be Easter next year.

Yesterday deaths were 12 from Covid and 2k in hospital at its peak there were 30k in hospital and 1k deaths a day - what are the criteria that makes everyone happy to remove restrictions - zero Covid?

There are still c2m on furlough is it fair that hospitality, sports, theatres to have operate if they are allowed in this way indefinitely? Should we close our borders for ever - no chance to visit relatives abroad?

Young people simply don't care and keeping restrictions in place will not change that and they seem to be the prime culprit in the growth of the infections.

Education cannot continue like this - children suffer very little and to have them all at home because one child test positive using a very inefficient test seems bonkers to me.

There surely has to come a time for personal responsibility - if you are not happy being around other people then protect yourself and allow the rest of society to live a normal life as possible.

I can see the rationale Sal but I'd keep some of the mitigations such as mask wearing and social distancing in some settings.

A full removal of all restrictions seems a bit of a leap in the dark. Everyone around the world is looking at the UK to see what happens next.

It does appear that we've gone schmidt or bust.
Surely another round of lifting restrictions before we go for herd immunity would have been a more wise option.

I dont really get the "now or never" concept.

It seems more likely that we have hit the "limit" of government borrowing and that "we" aren't prepared to keep on stacking debt.
The expectation of 50,000 new daily cases does seem out of sync with the route that we've had for the last 15/16 months.

Let's hope it works

It's about balancing the negatives of keeping restrictions against the negatives of allowing the virus to spread without any mitigations of the risk. The efficacy of the vaccine helps decide which side you go with.

On the one hand you damage the economy further or on the other you increase the likelihood of more variants emerging.

If things get out of control we could well end up back where we started. It's uncharted territory. I'd be a bit more cautious than this.

It seems that I was wrong with my 50,000 new cases a day.
Sajid Javid has said that "we" will see 100,000 new cases daily, which is an eye watering number.

Those that have chosen not to have vaccines, haven't had the full two doses or who aren't able to have it are going to have some serious issues if we get to 100k new cases a day. Right Said Fred and Ian Brown's next gig might be in HDU/ITU.

They are literally planning on letting the stuff sweep through the nation, regardless of the consequences.
Of which new British variants is by far the biggest issue now that deaths have gone away.

What settings are you thinking - I can't think of many that would benefit both health and the economy - hospitality needs both removing as does sport - perhaps masks on public transport especially if everyone is returning to the office.

Let it rip

Masks on public transport definitely.

Rather than go the whole hog in a couple of weeks I'd gradually increase the capacities allowed in sports grounds, clubs, shops etc and see how we're going. Not requiring check-in at venues seems to be an odd one too. It's going to mean me doing a lot more lateral flow testing before I visit vulnerable relatives, especially it we go to 100k new cases a day.

Having said all that I think a lot of people will continue to be cautious so there won't be a sudden return to how things were as if nothing happened.

Looking at today's graphs I can see a good chance of a return to restrictions before the year is out.

It would be very interesting to see the ages of these getting infected and their Covid jab status. How many are refusing the vaccine?

I agree regarding the return to normality it will be slow - RL can sell out 4k so that suggests people are nervous.

The government need to lay out the criteria that will lead to further restrictions - infections are irrelevant it is ICU numbers. I cannot see all the fuss and about masks tbh - there is zero interest in social distancing even Labour couldn't give a toss about it.

The lack of interest in social distancing comes from the narrative set by the politicians and the media.

2nd lockdown came in on 5th November with 2796 covid patients in a bed in Yorks and Humber peaking at 3841 on 26 January. We've got 376 today.

Like I said, I think we'll be bringing restrictions back at some point. I'd guess probably autumn/winter.

From what I've seen the majority of covid patients in hospital are the unvaccinated and those that have had only one vaccination. There is a smaller proportion that have had both but for who the vaccination hasn't been as effective for a variety of reasons.

To make a judgement based on numbers in "ICU" is a gross oversimplification and thankfully not how we make these decisions.

It’s the fact that with as the number of cases rise so does the risk of it mutating into something we cannot control with the current vaccines.

So If had 100,000 infections everyday but <5,000 hospitalisations we would lockdown again - either this vaccination works or it doesn't?

The government need to give out figures that are more meaningful - yes there was c400 went into hospital but c200 came out - what is the average stay in hospital, what was the vaccine status, how many in ICU etc.

The whole point of lockdown was to protect the NHS - nothing else - surely it is the numbers in ICU that determine what the NHS can provide - it was the bottleneck last time and turned the NHS into the NCS. It had plenty of beds - let's face it the NHS wasn't treating hardly anyone else - it was the lack of ICU wards and trained nurses that was the real issue.

Thankfully those that have been double vaccinated and those <18 don't have to self isolate if pinged by the app - and it looks like we should be able to go abroad and not have to self isolate, no bubbles in schools - progress at least.

Not at all it is impractical almost impossible to achieve when society behaves with any degree of normality - how are kids supposed to observe that - let's get real here.

Was the whole point of lockdown not to save lives

The other elephant in the room is not Covid, it's all the other diseases we've been avoiding. Hospitals fill with people every year without covid being around.
There is, for example, significant concern over the other circulating corona viruses we've been avoiding. Not to worry anyone but some of those are really nasty and can potentially avoid the immune response because of covid or mask the immune system so it doesn't effectively deal with covid.

Well, you've completely got me there ZZB, what on earth are you on about ?
(my previous post was about the narrative being set by the politicians and the media)

Kids, largely, will follow the example set by their parents, friends, teachers etc. and although there are some that dont confirm, the majority usually do.

There isn't a narrative set by anybody it is simply impractical - young people - let's take university students, they caused the second lockdown because they wouldn't behave when they went back to Uni in September. It is no surprise that students are leading this wave - Leeds has a rate of over 300 where do you think the big areas are Hyde Park, Becketts/Headingley - what a shock its where all the students live. They don't care.

As for under 10s give me a break - they will simply mix with each other it is impossible to keep them apart.

Have you been to Aldi in the last year - no way you can keep 2 metres from everyone.

Sal in young students enjoying themselves shocker!
I'm more impressed and interested that you may have visited an Aldis.

Completely agree - crack on - they need to enjoy life when they don't have any responsibility

Aldi - wife loves the middle aisles

I never thought I would need a deep sea diving suit - but that's another story