There's and embargo on Iranian oil, a military build up in the Gulf and one of the few UK oil refineries has just gone bust. Do you reckon petrol prices will go up or down?

Up short term, followed by thermo nuclear war.

Shouldn't joke in this year of the Dragon, Iran, Israel, Falklands, etc.

Looks to be just a matter of time before it kicks off with Iran.

Probably Israel will begin proceedings, then the Americans will join in, and the UK will have a small role.

I would think just aerial strikes on nuclear facilities rather than any kind of liberation like we saw in Iraq.

What if Russia and / or China decide they are strong allies of Iran?

WW3?

The old ones are the best......

Petrol prices will continue to go up as long as people aren't prepared to live without their cars.

If people are daft enough to pay it, the oil companies are daft enough to charge it, and the governments are daft enough to keep putting further taxes and duties on it.

Only when we all buy either 1.0 urinators (you know, for p155ing about in), or electric cars, or walk, or get a decent public transport system, will we all stop consuming petrol at stupid rates.

And no, cod'ead, I don't drive a gas guzzler before you start.

If you can't make money selling drugs to the addicted...



With or without short term crises long term prices for fuel are only going to go in one direction.

Read an article about electric cars a couple of weeks ago. Sales are very poor. One of the reasons is they are so expensive. 25k even with a 5k Govt subsidy.

I dread to think what petrol will cost in 20 years time, even without the upheaval in the middle East, Etc it will be out of reach of most people by then.

Or not. If the vast majority of people couldn't afford petrol, then there would be no point in making the stuff. The producing countries ain't that stupid. They are expert at keeping the price maxed at a level that everyone will still stump up, even if complaining bitterly, and the only other thing that is likely to change over time is the government's tax take percentage.

What I do find somewhat surprising is why the oil companies sold off the refining operations to 3rd parties. They have traditionally controlled all operations from well to tank but for some reason decided (almost en-masse) to ditch refining. I can only assume that their shareholders decided that there was not enough margin in refining (there seems little scope for adding further value in that process) and instructed them to sell it off and book the cash. So they sell it off to smaller operations, who don't have the finances to withstand a period of high raw material prices AND lower demand. Obviously a short-term gain for big oil but a potential problem if other refiners are suffering similar problems.

Thought I had read somewhere that the developing world will be buying more cars etc than the west in the next couple of years, so demand is going to rise in the next few years.

There are a number of reasons why the big companies got out of refining. Firstly, they earn on average between 20-25% return on capital employed in oil exploration activities, but even in good times the return on refining is only around 8%. Secondly, and the main reason why they exited, is simply because there is massive overcapacity in the industry and overcapacity in a depressed market spells huge problems. A refinery obviously has huge fixed costs and even when it is not producing much it still carries significant costs such as maintenance and safety and regulatory compliance, without even taking into account the payroll and other infrastructure. If the market overcapacity means you are going to be operating at 60% of the plant's capacity for the foreseeable future then it doesn't take a genius to work out that the economics don't stack up - especially when new refineries are opening in China and India which don't have the same regulatory burdens.

We should get ourselves a nice friendly secular dictator with an army background, arm him to the teeth and then get him to attack Iran...


















on second thoughts we tried that and then decided to dump him.

It's all very well saying but what if you have no option but to drive?

Then you'll be worse off.

then but it back when they go bust,

BP will come out of this on a right winner

Prices will go through the roof and then the sky will fall in.



I'm sure if I could be arrissed I could make a joke out of that.

People are using public transport more often (hence crowded trains despite there being more trains), cycling is booming, supermarkets are reporting that they are getting lower footfall at out-of-town supermarkets (i.e. people are going less often, spending less overall but buying more per visit), Tesco are cutting back on building out-of-town (not pulling-out of it but they see the future in putting more shops nearer to where the shoppers are), people are generally less keen on just jumping into the car and fuel consumption is more often seen as a vital statistic when buying a car.

Some behaviour is changing, gradually.

Now you're just trying to cheer Dally up!

I believe about 75% is tax,no doubt someone will put me right.When I was delivering to petrol stations the garage itself made about 1 pence per litre.More profit was made in the shop,believe it or not.

A penny, one penny or, if you must, one "P".
Not 1 pence.
Pence is plural.