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What the Bookies Say about Tomorrow
Posted by southstander on October 04 2007 - 13:10:05

There seems to be a 50-50 split amongst Rhinos fans about who will emerge triumphant from tomorrow nights battle between the Rhinos and the Warriors. Even my brother thinks that we'll get beaten, while I think that we will get our first 2007 win over the Cherry & Whites when it really matters.

The old adage goes, 'you never see a poor bookie', suggesting that more often than not they call it right and don't end up paying out on the outsider.

We take a look at what the bookies think about tomorrow...

Our associated bookmaker Sporting Bet are pretty confident that the Rhinos will prevail tomorrow giving us an eight point start on the coupon over the Pie Eaters. In terms of match prices (without handicaps) the Rhinos are 2/5 to win the game with Wigan 2/1 - the unlikely draw being 20/1 (although funnier things have happened).

Leeds are 8/13 to be half time leaders, with Wigan at 6/4, the draw is a more appealing prospect here at 10/1.

I think I'd be taking a try after ten minutes at 5/6 rather than pre ten minutes at 10/11 as I think that the game will both be low scoring, and take a while for both sides to weigh one another up. A Leeds penalty as the opening score at 5/1, or a Wigan one at 9/2 would also be preferred to a four pointer getting the scoreboard moving.

When you take a look at winning margins, Leeds are 5/1 to win by 6-10 points and 6/1 to win by 11-15. Wigan, on the other hand, are 13/2 to win by 1-5 points and 9/1 to win by 6-10. There is plenty of value here, but where do you go? I'd probably plump for Leeds by 1-5 at 11/2.

With Ganson in the middle you'd expect the number of video referee calls to be high, especially with a game of such significance. But I think it will be a low scoring affair, just like last week, so I'd be going for 0-2 at 11/5.

A real outsider would be for a drop goal to be the opening score of the second half and you could get odds of 28/1 for that to be the case. In a tight game, you just never know.

As ever, only bet money that you can afford to lose, as in the last two weeks the Warriors have proved that nothing is really that predictable. The bookies, neutrals, and supporters of all other teams (bizarrely including Hull FC and Saints) are behind us and hoping that we can be the ones who prove that cheats don't prosper as we charge into the Grand Final.

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